In my opinion Kiel have really good chances to avoid loss in today’s game.

Kiel coming for this match with huge mental advantage as they didn’t lost in 10 of last 11 matches against Hamburg.

After 12 rounds played, difference in league table between both clubs is not big. Second HSV is 4 points above 6th Kiel.

Kiel lost 50% of home matches so far, but in current campaign is hard to consider HSV as a strong away team. Hamburg failed to win in 5 of 6 away league matches so far and conceded 9 goals in the process.

I believe Kiel shouldn’t have too big problems with goalscoring. Their offensive players are in good rhythm at the moment. Kiel scored 7 goals in last 4 rounds – they failed against Nurnberg, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 0.92. Kiel scored 9 goals in 6 home matches so far.

On the other hand Hamburg conceded 9 goals in last 5 matches on the road in all competitions. In addition to that, guests coming for this game with serious squad problems at the back. Today they are without key central defender Ramos, key right defender Van der Bremt, key central midfielder Reis, important central defender Schonlau, central defender Ambrosius, central defender Vuskovic. List is really long and that should have very bad impact on guests performance at the back today.

On those circumstances Kiel should be able to score at least one goal and that also should be enough to avoid loss.

在我看来，基尔队在今天的比赛中有很好的机会避免输球。

基尔带着巨大的心理优势来参加这场比赛，因为他们在过去11场对阵汉堡的比赛中没有输过10场。

经过12轮比赛，两家俱乐部在积分榜上的差距并不大。第二HSV比第六基尔高4分。

到目前为止，基尔在主场输掉了50%的比赛，但在目前的比赛中，很难将HSV视为一支强大的客场球队。到目前为止，汉堡在6场客场比赛中有5场未能获胜，并在此过程中丢了9个球。

我相信基尔在进球方面不会有太大的问题。他们的进攻队员现在节奏很好。基尔在过去的4轮比赛中进了7球——他们输给了纽伦堡，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该进0.92球。迄今为止，基尔在6场主场比赛中打进9球。

另一方面，汉堡在最近5场客场比赛中丢了9个球。除此之外，来观看这场比赛的客人在后防线上也出现了严重的问题。今天他们缺少了关键中卫拉莫斯，关键右后卫范德布雷姆特，关键中卫赖斯，重要中卫舍劳，中卫安布罗修斯，中卫武斯科维奇。名单真的很长，这将对今天后排嘉宾的表现产生非常坏的影响。

在这种情况下，基尔应该至少能进一个球，这也应该足以避免输球。