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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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2023-10-25

比赛分析

英乙

已完赛

星期三2023-10-25 02:45

解读理由

Forest Green Rovers VS Barrow


Forest Green host Barrow for this English League Two round 15 battle at The New Lawn early Wednesday morning Beijing time. However, in reality, both teams have played 13 games so far. This is the fourth tier of English football and my fans and I have done very well betting on it. We have yet another interesting betting opportunity here. This is definitely the best fourth-highest level in the world and here we can expect a match of mediocre level by this league’s standards. Forest Green have had a very disappointing start to the season and are clearly low in confidence at the moment. Indeed, they currently occupy the 22nd place in this league with a total of 24 clubs. They have grabbed just 10 points so far and have an abysmal score difference as well. Indeed, they have scored 16 goals, but their number of expected goals (xG) is only 13.14. The visitors, on the other hand, have netted the ball 15 times but their number of xG is 17.67. However, taking the team’ potential for improvement, Barrow do not have a big edge over the hosts in this area of the game. In terms of defensive quality, the difference between the teams is substantial. The hosts defence has been extremely shaky, and they have conceded 24 goals in this league this season. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is even a little bigger – 26.12 to be precise. Silly individual mistakes are common, and their defensive structure is far from great as well.

Barrow have defended extremely well and have allowed just 14 goals! This is the third-lowest number in this league. In terms of individual skill their defenders are not top-level, but the defensive structure has been awesome and stupid mistakes have been. Furthermore, Barrow’s midfielders actively take part in defending. Their number of xGA is slightly higher than 14 though – 14.98. They have a respectable 18 points to their account and their number of expected points (xPTS) is 19.78. The hosts have lost six of their last seven matches in the League Two! They did win their last game though. It was a 5-0 home win over Colchester, who are currently in the 23rd place. Forest Green were the favourites in this match and did deserve to win but the final score is still very misleading. The hosts generated 1.87 in xG – the visitors managed 0.67. The bookies seem to give this win way too much emphasis. Barrow have played two draws in a row and have unarguably not been quite at their best lately. In their last game they faced AFC Wimbledon at home as underdogs according to the bookies. No goals were scored but Barrow generated 1.08 in xG – the visitors’ number was only 0.38. The biggest bookies with the largest betting limits see Forest Green as slim favourites here but I strongly disagree! We will go for the Barrow +0.5 goals handicap option with a big chance of winning!



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

森林绿漫游者VS巴罗


北京时间周三凌晨,森林绿队将在新草坪球场迎战巴罗队,进行英乙第15轮的比赛。但实际上,两队至今已经打了13场比赛。这是英格兰足球的第四梯队,我的球迷和我都很看好它。我们还有另一个有趣的投注机会。这绝对是世界上最好的第四高水平的比赛,在这里我们可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的平庸水平的比赛。森林绿本赛季的开局非常令人失望,现在他们显然信心不足。事实上,他们目前在联赛中排名第22位,共有24家俱乐部。到目前为止,他们只拿到了10分,而且积分差距也非常大。虽然打进了16粒进球,但预期进球数(xG)只有13.14粒。另一方面,客队的进球次数为15次,但罚球次数为17.67次。然而,考虑到球队的进步潜力,巴罗在这个领域的比赛中并没有比东道主有很大的优势。在防守质量方面,两队之间的差距是巨大的。东道主的防守非常不稳定,他们本赛季在联赛中丢了24球。他们的预期进球数(xGA)甚至更大——准确地说是26.12。愚蠢的个人错误是常见的,他们的防守结构也远不是很好。

巴罗的防守非常出色,只丢了14个球!这是联盟第三低的数据。就个人技术而言,他们的后卫不是顶级的,但防守结构非常棒,而且犯了很多愚蠢的错误。此外,巴罗的中场积极参与防守。他们的xGA数略高于14 - 14.98。他们的账户上有可观的18分,他们的预期点数(xPTS)是19.78。东道主在最近7场英乙比赛中输掉了6场!不过他们确实赢了最后一场比赛。这是一场主场5-0战胜科尔切斯特的比赛,科尔切斯特目前排名第23。森林绿队是这场比赛的大热门,他们确实应该获胜,但最终的比分仍然很容易误导人。东道主在xG中产生了1.87,而客队只产生了0.67。博彩公司似乎把这场胜利看得太重了。巴罗已经连续打了两场平局,毫无疑问,他最近并没有处于最佳状态。在他们的最后一场比赛中,他们在主场面对温布尔登,根据博彩公司的说法,他们处于劣势。没有进球,但是巴罗在xG创造了1.08个进球,而客队的数字只有0.38个。拥有最大投注限额的最大博彩公司认为森林绿是最受欢迎的,但我强烈反对!我们将选择巴罗+0.5个进球障碍选项,有很大的获胜机会!

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