Stal Mielec VS Warta Poznan

Stal Mielec and Warta Poznan lock horns in this Polish Ekstraklasa round 12 clash at Stadion MOSiR early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This is the highest level of Polish football. The level of this league is mediocre by European standards. Football fans and us serious football bettors can expect a match of average level by this league’ standards. Last season Warta Poznan played a pretty good season and finished in 8th place with a positive goal difference – 37:35 to be precise. Stal Mielec, on the other hand, had a clearly negative score difference and ended up in 11th place. However, this season has been a disappointment for Warta Poznan who are currently in 15th place in the league table. However, as most of my fans are probably aware of by now, I never let the standings fool me. First of all, I want to mention that they can improve in all areas of the game. More importantly, they have taken only 10 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) is 14.12. I have been pretty disappointed with their offense so far and have, in fact, as a result, lowered their rating from the early season analysis. This rating reflects the teams’ pure class with the best possible starting eleven. The bookies seem to have reacted more heavily than me to Warta’s early season.. They should pass the ball faster near the opponent’s goal to create more promising scoring chances. They have netted the ball just 11 times in the Ekstraklasa. Their number of expected goals (xG) is not great but still higher than the actual number – 14.11. The hosts, on the other hand, have scored 15 goals and their number of xG is 13.65. In terms of defensive quality the visitors have a pretty clear edge. They have more individual skill in defence and their defensive structure is also better than that of the hosts’. Warta have allowed 13 goals and their number of goals allowed (xGA) is 12.09. The hosts have conceded 15 goals and their number of xGA is 17.21. They are in 13th place with 12 points but their number of xPTS is only 10.43.

The biggest bookies who accept the biggest bets from customers see the hosts as favourites here - at the time of writing this analysis Monday afternoon Beijing time at least. Odds on Stal Mielec to win are around 2.50 but this is way too low. The better team, Warta, deserve to be not big, but still solid favourites. We will bet on them to take at least a point (+0.5 goals handicap). In terms of financial resources and players’ estimated total market value Warta are the bigger team here. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, their squad has a market value of only around 10.50 million euros which is still too low in my expert opinion. I would say that 11 million would be a more realistic number! The Stal Mielec squad, on the other hand, has a total market value of around 7.50 million which is more or less correct. The hosts have been in decline lately. Indeed, they have not won any of their latest three games. In their latest match they played a 1-1 draw at a neutral location. It was a friendly match and Stal Mielec were clear favourites in this game. Before this they suffered a 0-1 defeat away from home against Widzew Lodz. It was a somewhat lame performance despite the 56% ball possession. The hosts recorded many more goal attempts (16-10) in this game. Before this Stal Mielec faced Korona Kielce at home and did not play that badly despite the 2-3 loss. However, their defensive vulnerabilities were clearly exposed in this game. Warta’s record in their last three games is one win, one draw and one defeat. The loss was a very unlucky one though as they recorded many more goal attempts (18-7), shots on target (5-2), attacks as well as dangerous attacks than Slask Wroclaw but lost 0-1 at home.

Stal Mielec VS Warta Poznan

北京时间周二凌晨，米列茨和波兹南将在第12轮波兰Ekstraklasa比赛中对决。这是波兰足球的最高水平。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平是中等的。足球迷和我们这些认真的足球投注者可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的平均水平的比赛。上个赛季，波兹南的表现相当不错，以37:35的净胜球排名第8。另一方面，Stal Mielec得分明显为负，最终排在第11位。然而，这个赛季对波兹南来说是令人失望的，他目前在联赛中排名第15位。然而，正如我的大多数粉丝现在可能已经意识到的那样，我从不让排名欺骗我。首先，我想说的是，他们可以在比赛的各个方面都有所提高。更重要的是，他们虽然只拿到了10分，但他们的期望分数(xPTS)是14.12分。到目前为止，我对他们的进攻非常失望，事实上，结果是，从赛季初的分析中，我降低了他们的评分。这个排名反映了球队的纯粹等级，有最好的首发11人。对于沃尔塔赛季初的表现，博彩公司的反应似乎比我更强烈。他们应该在对手球门附近更快地传球，以创造更多有希望的得分机会。他们在Ekstraklasa只进了11次球。他们的预期进球数(xG)并不多，但仍高于实际数字(14.11)。另一方面，东道主打进了15球，他们的xG数为13.65。就防守质量而言，客队有相当明显的优势。他们在防守方面有更多的个人技术，他们的防守结构也比东道主更好。瓦尔塔已经丢了13个球，他们的失球数(xGA)是12.09个。东道主已经丢了15个球，他们的进球数是17.21。虽然他们以12分排名第13位，但他们的得分只有10.43分。

至少在北京时间周一下午写这篇分析的时候，接受客户最大赌注的最大博彩公司认为东道主是最受欢迎的。斯托尔·米勒克获胜的赔率在2.50左右，但这太低了。更好的球队，瓦尔塔，配不上强队，但仍然是大热门。我们赌他们至少得一分(+0.5个进球障碍)。就财务资源和球员估计的总市场价值而言，Warta是这里更大的团队。根据著名的德国网站Transfermarkt.com，他们的球队的市场价值只有1050万欧元左右，在我的专家看来还是太低了。我会说1100万是一个更现实的数字!另一方面，Stal Mielec队的总市值约为750万欧元，这或多或少是正确的。最近东道主的数量在减少。事实上，他们最近三场比赛一场也没赢。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在一个中立的场地打成了1比1的平局。这是一场友谊赛，米勒茨在这场比赛中显然是最受欢迎的。在此之前，他们在客场0-1不敌韦德泽·罗兹。尽管有56%的控球率，这还是有点蹩脚的表现。东道主在这场比赛中有更多的射门次数(16-10)。在此之前，米勒奇在主场面对科罗纳·凯尔切，尽管以2比3输掉了比赛，但他的表现并没有那么糟糕。然而，他们的防守弱点在这场比赛中暴露无遗。沃尔塔最近三场比赛的战绩是1胜1平1负。虽然他们的进球次数(18胜7负)、射正次数(5胜2负)、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都比弗罗茨瓦夫多，但他们还是在主场0比1输掉了比赛。