In my opinion Everton have bigger chances to avoid big loss in this game than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

It’s derby game – special atmosphere and totally different type of match for Liverpool. If You look on the bigger picture – they not recording too many big wins. Liverpool failed to win with more than one goal difference against Everton in 9 of last 14 matches between both teams.

We had national matches in last 10 days and for sure this is advantage for Everton, they don’t have so many players involved in such competitions. On the other hand almost all Liverpool key players played national matches (many of them twice 90’ in 10 days) and players like goalkeeper Alisson or winger Diaz traveled to South America. For sure freshness is not Liverpool side.

I don’t trust for Liverpool defensive formation – in last 7 matches in all competitions they conceded at least one goal in 6 games. They kept clean sheet only against poor Union in Europa League. In addition to that, key left defender Robertson is unavailable today. On the other hand Everton is really creative team in attack. In last 7 matches in all competitions they failed to score only against Arsenal (0:1, leaders of the table). In 5 of those 7 matches Everton scored more than one goal. In current season Everton produced 14.9 expected goals scored (only 2 goals less than Liverpool!).

What is even more interesting – Everton conceded 12 goals so far (3 more than Liverpool), but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 10.4 (Liverpool 11.6).

I see strong value on Everton with his HC line.

在我看来，埃弗顿在这场比赛中有更大的机会避免大的损失，而不是博彩公司给我们的赔率。

这是德比战，气氛特别，对利物浦来说是一场完全不同的比赛。如果你从更大的角度来看，他们并没有取得太多的重大胜利。在过去的14场比赛中，利物浦与埃弗顿有9场比赛都未能以1球以上的差距取胜。

在过去的10天里我们有国家队比赛，当然这对埃弗顿来说是一个优势，他们没有那么多的球员参加这样的比赛。另一方面，几乎所有的利物浦主力球员都参加了国家队比赛(其中许多人在10天内踢了两次90分)，像门将阿利松和边锋迪亚兹这样的球员去了南美。当然新鲜感不是利物浦的风格。

我不相信利物浦的防守阵型——在所有比赛的最后7场比赛中，他们有6场比赛至少丢了一个球。他们只在欧联杯中对曼联保持了零失球。除此之外，关键的左后卫罗伯逊今天也不能上场。另一方面，埃弗顿在进攻端确实很有创造力。在各项赛事的最后7场比赛中，他们只有对阿森纳(0:1，积分榜第一)没有进球。在这7场比赛中，埃弗顿有5场进球超过1球。本赛季，埃弗顿的预期进球数为14.9球(仅比利物浦少2球)。

更有趣的是，埃弗顿目前丢了12个球(比利物浦多3个)，但根据预期丢球模型，他们应该丢10.4个球(利物浦11.6个)。

我认为埃弗顿的HC线很有价值。