Sevilla vs Real Madrid

Sevilla welcome Real Madrid for this LaLiga round 10 battle at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán very early Sunday morning Beijing time. This is the second-best league in the world, after the English Premier League. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of pretty good level here. Sevilla.. What should I write about them this time? I have recommended a bet against them many times over the past year or so – mostly with good success. This team just keeps on disappointing.. Beating Roma in the UEFA Europa League final 2-1 after penalties last season was a good effort but Roma generated around 1.20 more in expected goals (xG) than Sevilla. We should also remember that Roma were not a top-4 team in the Serie A last season. Had Sevilla not won the Europa League I believe their odds would have been much higher than they have been this season.. Football fans and recreational bettors often give winning trophies too much emphasis. In the Champions League Sevilla did very badly last season. They now have - again – a new coach – Diego Alonso. I am not saying that he is a bad coach but is definitely not top-level either – based on his success in the past. All professional bettors are fully aware of a thing called “the new coach/manager boost” which means that teams often play pretty well in the first 2-3 games under a new boss. This phenomenon is at its strongest in the first game – especially at home. Yes, this is a factor we have to take into account here, but it seems that the bookies have given this factor clearly too much emphasis here. Unfortunately for Real Madrid, one of the best goalkeepers, T. Courtois is injured but his replacement Kepa Arrizabalaga is a very good goalkeeper as well. I have not significantly lowered Real’s power rating that reflects the teams’ pure class with the best possible starting lineup because of Courtois being out. However, I believe the betting market has reacted to this. In my power ratings Barcelona and Real Madrid are more or less equal on top of the ratings. The biggest bookmakers with the largest stake limits offer “Los Blancos” odds of around 1.85-1.90 - at the time of writing this preview Friday evening Beijing time - to go back to Madrid with all three points. However, I would not be at all surprised to see odds on the visitors to go down before the kick off as smart money is expected to pile up on them! I see them having a 58.50% chance of winning with the expected lineups. Real seem to have a mental edge over Sevilla whose last league win over Real Madrid came in September 2018. They have lost eight of the last nine LaLiga meetings between the two sides. In terms of expected points (xPTS) Real Madrid have been slightly the best team in LaLiga so far this season. Yes, they would not have deserved the 24 points they have to their account, but this is pretty unavoidable as they have won a whopping eight of the nine LaLiga matches. They have netted the ball 20 times but their number of xG is 23.12. Their defence has very few weaknesses – they have allowed just six goals in this league so far. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is somewhat bigger though.

Real Madrid top the LaLiga standings with 24 points. Sevilla have taken just eight points and have been only marginally unlucky in terms of xPTS. Their offense has been lame in most games - they have netted the ball 13 times in LaLiga but their number of xG is only 10.34. In their most recent game, they faced Rayo Vallecano at home as clear favourites on the betting market – priced around 1.80 to win. Yes, they had 64% ball possession and recorded more shots on goal (6-4) but the visitors generated more in xG – 1.12-0.78 to be precise. I was not at all impressed by Sevilla’s performance! Before this they were lucky to grab a point through a 2-2 draw in the Netherlands against PSV in the Champions League. The hosts had 59% ball possession and recorded a whopping 29 goal attempts – Sevilla managed 10. Moreover, PSV generated 2.43 in xG – Sevilla recorded 1.02. Real, on the other hand, have won four games in a row without allowing a single goal! Their confidence seems to be sky-high at the moment. In their latest game they easily beat Osasuna 4-0 at home. They generated 3.06 in xG – Osasuna recorded only 0.53. Before this they beat the reigning Serie A champions, Napoli, 3-2 away from home in the Champions League despite not being even close to their best. On the 30th of September they swept past the sensation of the season in LaLiga, Girona, 3-0 away from home. Girona are currently in 2nd place in the standings. A player to watch very closely is one of the best players on the planet at the moment, Jude Bellingham. He has scored 10 goals and registering three assists in 10 appearances in all competitions and is improving all the time. The Real fans seem to already love him about as much as they loved C. Ronaldo in the past. In a way he has replaced Karim Benzema and has created a strong belief within the team in terms of winning balanced games - even when Real so not play at their best level.

GOOD LUCK!

塞维利亚vs皇家马德里

北京时间周日凌晨，塞维利亚将在Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán球场迎来皇马的西甲第十轮激战。这是世界上第二好的联赛，仅次于英超。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场相当高水平的比赛。塞维利亚。这次我该写些什么呢?在过去一年左右的时间里，我曾多次建议做空它们——大多数都取得了不错的成功。这支球队总是让人失望。上赛季在欧联杯决赛中，罗马在点球后2-1击败了罗马，这是一个很好的努力，但罗马的预期进球(xG)比塞维利亚多出1.20个左右。我们还应该记住，罗马上赛季并不是意甲前四的球队。如果塞维利亚没有赢得欧联杯，我相信他们夺冠的几率会比这个赛季高得多。足球迷和娱乐赌客往往把获胜奖杯看得太重。塞维利亚上赛季在欧冠的表现非常糟糕。他们现在又有了一位新教练——迭戈·阿隆索。我并不是说他是一个糟糕的教练，但从他过去的成功来看，他也绝对不是顶级教练。所有职业投注者都充分意识到一种叫做“新教练/经理提升”的东西，这意味着在新老板的带领下，球队通常在前2-3场比赛中表现不错。这种现象在第一场比赛中表现得最为强烈，尤其是在主场。是的，这是一个我们必须考虑的因素，但似乎赌徒们在这里过分强调了这个因素。对皇马来说不幸的是，最好的门将之一库尔图瓦受伤了，但他的替补门将阿里扎巴拉加也是一名非常出色的门将。我并没有因为库尔图瓦的缺席而大幅降低皇马的实力评级，这反映了这支球队拥有最好的首发阵容。然而，我相信博彩市场已经对此做出了反应。在我的权力评级中，巴塞罗那和皇马在评级的顶端或多或少相等。在北京时间周五晚上写这篇预告的时候，最大的博彩公司对“白衣军团”开出了1.85比1.90的赔率，以获得全部三分返回马德里。然而，如果看到客队的赔率在开球前下降，我一点也不感到惊讶，因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在他们身上!我认为他们在预期的阵容下有58.50%的获胜机会。皇马似乎在精神上比塞维利亚更有优势，塞维利亚上一次在联赛中战胜皇马是在2018年9月。在过去的9场西甲交锋中，他们输掉了8场。从预期积分(xPTS)来看，本赛季到目前为止，皇马是西甲联赛中表现最好的球队。是的，他们不应该得到24分，但这是不可避免的，因为他们赢得了西甲9场比赛中的8场。他们有20次进球，但他们的射门次数是23.12次。他们的防守几乎没有什么弱点——到目前为止，他们在联赛中只丢了6个球。不过他们的预期进球数(xGA)要大一些。

皇马以24分排名西甲第一。塞维利亚只拿到了8分，在积分方面也只是运气不太好。他们的进攻在大多数比赛中都很差劲——他们在西甲有13次进球，但他们的射门次数只有10.34次。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场面对巴列卡诺，在博彩市场上，他们显然是最受欢迎的对手，胜率约为1.8英镑。是的，他们有64%的控球率，射门次数也更多(6-4)，但客队在xG - 1.12-0.78的比赛中射门次数更多。我对塞维利亚的表现一点印象都没有!在此之前，他们在荷兰2-2战平埃因霍温的欧冠比赛中幸运地拿到了一分。东道主有59%的控球率，并且有惊人的29次射门，塞维利亚只有10次。此外，PSV在本赛季打进2.43球，塞维利亚打进1.02球。另一方面，皇马已经连续四场比赛没有失球!他们此刻似乎信心十足。在最近一场比赛中，他们在主场以4比0轻松击败奥萨苏纳。他们在xG赛季的进球数是3.06，而奥萨苏纳只有0.53。在此之前，他们在欧冠客场3-2击败了意甲卫冕冠军那不勒斯，尽管他们还没有达到最佳状态。9月30日，他们在客场3-0横扫了本赛季西甲轰动的赫罗纳。赫罗纳目前在积分榜上排名第二。一个值得密切关注的球员是目前这个星球上最好的球员之一，裘德·贝灵汉。他进了10个球

好运！