Finland vs Kazakhstan

Finland host Kazakhstan for this EURO 2024 Qualification round 8 battle at Helsinki Olympic Stadium early Wednesday morning Beijing time. The Summer Olympic Games were organized at this iconic stadium back in 1952 and it was fully modernized a few years ago for a whopping approximately 350 million euros. This match has been sold out for a long time already and I expect the atmosphere to be great – despite the cold weather, around + 5 degrees Celsius. For Finnish fans it is not a problem as the temperature can drop to -25 degrees in the winter! I will be at the stadium supporting my country as well. Yes, Finland lost to Denmark 0-1 last month but have overall been strong at this stadium – and overall, at home. Denmark were the better team on the pitch but still generated only 0.45 in expected goals (xG). Finland have one of the best home crowds in Europe. There is a fan group called “Pohjoiskaarre” that boost the rest of the home fans into loud cheers. The stakes are high here as both teams still do have a chance of making it to the EURO 2024 in Germany. However, I would be very surprised to see Kazakhstan qualifying! They have been extremely lucky in the group games so far and do have a few skilled players but do not play too well as a team. They heavily rely on home games on artificial turf - which is often in pretty poor quality.

Both teams have grabbed 12 points but there is still a significant difference in class between these two teams! My fans are probably aware of the fact that I’m very realistic – one could say critical, of the level of the Finnish first tier, Veikkausliiga and of Finnish clubs’ chances in UEFA’s club competitions.. My point is that being a Finn myself does not have anything to with recommending a bet on my country here. In fact, the main rationale behind this pick is to oppose Kazakhstan. Finland are in the 54th place in the FIFA ranking but this is too low. In my expert opinion they are the 45th or 46th best team in the world. It is true that when looking at the list of players Finland are not overly impressive. They have just one player from a top-4 league – goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky - who plays for Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. However, they play extremely well as a team – especially against teams that are worse than them.. They are a disciplined, relatively defensive team but still have some skilled offensive players. Robert Taylor has been on fire with Lionel Messi with Inter Miami in the MLS this autumn. He has not played a lot for Finland so far but might get a chance to prove his skills here.. Teemu Pukki played in the English Premier League scoring a good number of goals a few years ago. Joel Pohjanpalo scored the winning goal against Denmark in 2021 and has scored a lot of goals for Venezia in the Serie B. They have an excellent coach in Markku “Rive” Kanerva. He was a teacher before becoming a coach and has created an excellent atmosphere withing the team. The players always feel safe and love playing for Finland. He led Finland to the EURO 2020 (played in 2021) where they, as mentioned before, beat Copenhagen 1-0 in a strange match where Eriksen got a heart attack. Furthermore, Finland were not that far from making it to the World Cup 2022 Qualification Playoffs.. Kazakhstan, on the other hand, have never qualified for a major tournament - not even close.

Finland beat Kazakhstan away from home last month and fully deserved the win! Indeed, they had 56% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal, shots of target, corner kicks (9-4), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks – 68-23. Kazakhstan could not create much offensively - even with the support of very loud fans. Finland did not generate too much in xG either but were patiently controlling the game – waiting for Kazakhstan's pretty poorly organized defence to make a mistake. Finland finally got the goal in the 78th minute when the ultra-talented and fast O. Antman netted the ball with confidence. He is injured now though. Important midfielder Rasmus Schuller is out too. Both absences do hurt Finland's chances but it seems the bookies have overacted to these absences.. It is true that Finland were quite bad in Slovenia a few days ago. However, we must also give credit to Slovenia who are a better team than Finland by pure class and were clear favourites on the betting market in this game - priced around 1.90 to win. They were better prepared for the game in terms of tactic and mental state and their star striker Sesko scored two goals in the first half - the first one was a penalty. Slovenia did deserve the win but the 3-0 final score is still misleading! Finland had 52% ball possession and Finland even recorded more attacks (124-100) as well as dangerous attacks – 52-45. Slovenia did generate more in xG – 1.54-0.91. Finland are now four points behind Slovenia, currently in second place, and need to beat Kazakhstan to realistically keep their hopes of qualifying alive. The top-2 teams qualify. They will surely take big risks in the second half if they are not in the lead.. We will place a bet on Finland at the odds of around 1.60. Based on my in-depth, strongly data-based analysis they have a 67% chance of sending the visitors home empty-handed. Finland have won five games in a row against the Kazakhs – two times in 2021 in the World Cup Qualification – 1-0 and 2-0. Before beating Kazakhstan away from home Finland crushed San Marino 6-0 and beat Slovenia 2-0 – both at this stadium. Talking of the Kazaks being lucky - they generated a pathetic 0.08 in xG against Northern Ireland but did take a 1-0 win at home last month. The visitors managed 1.34. They beat the same opponent 1-0 in June as well but did not deserve this win either! The hosts recorded 0.45 more than Kazakhstan in xG in this match. In March Kazakhstan shocked the football world by defeating Denmark 3-2 at home. This result got a lot of media attention and probably still affects the odds here.. Denmark were far from their best level in this game but would still have deserved a win in this game as they generated more in xG – 2.45-1.53. Denmark got their revenge a few days ago, easily beating Kazakhstan 3-1 at home.

GOOD LUCK!

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芬兰vs哈萨克斯坦

北京时间周三凌晨，2024年欧洲杯预选赛第8轮比赛在赫尔辛基奥林匹克体育场举行，芬兰将迎战哈萨克斯坦。夏季奥运会于1952年在这座标志性的体育场举办，几年前，它以大约3.5亿欧元的惊人价格进行了全面现代化。这场比赛的票已经卖光很长时间了，我希望气氛会很好——尽管天气很冷，大约5摄氏度。对于芬兰的粉丝来说，这不是问题，因为冬天的温度可以降到零下25度!我也会在球场支持我的国家。是的，芬兰上个月0-1输给了丹麦，但总体而言，芬兰在这座体育场表现强劲——在主场也是如此。丹麦队在场上表现更好，但预期进球数仅为0.45 (xG)。芬兰拥有欧洲最好的主场观众之一。有一个名为“Pohjoiskaarre”的球迷团体，会让其他主场球迷大声欢呼。这两支球队都有机会进入2024年德国欧洲杯，因此赌注很高。然而，如果看到哈萨克斯坦排位赛，我会非常惊讶!到目前为止，他们在小组赛中非常幸运，确实有一些技术娴熟的球员，但作为一个团队，他们踢得不太好。他们严重依赖在人造草坪上进行主场比赛，而人造草坪的质量通常很差。

两支球队都拿到了12分，但是两支球队在等级上仍然有很大的差异!我的球迷可能意识到我对芬兰甲级联赛的水平和芬兰俱乐部在欧足联俱乐部比赛中的机会是非常现实的——可以说是批判性的。我想说的是，作为一名芬兰人，我并没有建议把赌注押在我的国家身上。事实上，这一选择背后的主要理由是反对哈萨克斯坦。芬兰在国际足联排名中名列第54位，但这个排名太低了。在我的专家看来，他们是世界上排名第45或46的球队。的确，从球员名单来看，芬兰队的表现并不令人印象深刻。他们只有一名来自四大联赛的球员——效力于德甲勒沃库森的门将赫拉迪基。然而，他们作为一个团队打得非常好——尤其是面对比他们差的球队。他们是一支纪律严明，相对防守的球队，但仍然有一些技术娴熟的进攻球员。今年秋天，罗伯特·泰勒和莱昂内尔·梅西在美国职业足球大联盟迈阿密国际效力。到目前为止，他还没有为芬兰打过很多比赛，但在这里可能有机会证明他的技术。普基几年前在英超踢球，进了很多球。乔尔·波扬帕洛在2021年对阵丹麦的比赛中攻入制胜一球，并在乙级联赛中为威尼斯队打进了很多进球。他们拥有出色的教练马尔库·“里夫”·卡内瓦。在成为教练之前，他是一名教师，在球队中创造了良好的氛围。球员们总是感到安全，喜欢为芬兰踢球。他带领芬兰队参加了2020年欧洲杯(2021年举行)，如前所述，芬兰队在一场奇怪的比赛中以1比0击败哥本哈根队，埃里克森心脏病发作。此外，芬兰队离2022年世界杯资格赛季后赛也不远了。另一方面，哈萨克斯坦从未获得过重大赛事的参赛资格——甚至差得远。

芬兰队上个月在客场击败了哈萨克斯坦队，他们完全配得上这场胜利!事实上，他们有56%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数、射正次数、射正次数、角球次数(9-4)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数(68-23)。哈萨克斯坦无法在进攻端创造太多的机会——即使有非常大声的球迷的支持。芬兰在世界杯上也没有创造太多的机会，但他们耐心地控制着比赛，等待着哈萨克斯坦组织得很差的防守犯错误。芬兰最终在第78分钟取得进球，才华横溢、速度快的O.安特曼自信地将球打进。不过他现在受伤了。重要的中场拉斯穆斯·舒勒也缺阵。两场比赛的缺席确实影响了芬兰的机会，但似乎博彩公司对这两场比赛的缺席反应过度了。的确，芬兰前几天在斯洛文尼亚踢得很糟糕。然而，我们也必须赞扬斯洛文尼亚队，他们在纯粹的级别上比芬兰队更好，并且在这场比赛的博彩市场上是明显的热门球队，价格在1.90左右获胜。他们在战术和精神状态上都为比赛做了更好的准备，他们的明星前锋塞斯科在上半场进了两个球——第一个是点球。斯洛文尼亚确实应该获胜，但3-0的最终比分仍然具有误导性!芬兰队有52%的控球率，甚至达到了50%

矿石攻击(124-100)和危险攻击- 52-45。斯洛文尼亚在xG - 1.54-0.91中确实产生了更多。芬兰目前落后第二名斯洛文尼亚4分，他们需要击败哈萨克斯坦才能保住出线的希望。排名前2的球队将获得参赛资格。如果下半场不领先，他们肯定会冒很大的风险。我们将以1.60的赔率赌芬兰队。根据我的深度数据分析，他们有67%的机会让访客空手而归。芬兰队已经连续五场战胜哈萨克队，在2021年世界杯预选赛中两次以1比0和2比0取胜。在客场击败哈萨克斯坦之前，芬兰6比0击败圣马力诺，2比0击败斯洛文尼亚，两场比赛都是在这个体育场进行的。说到哈萨克人的运气，他们在xG对阵北爱尔兰的比赛中只得到可怜的0.08分，但上个月他们在主场以1-0取胜。游客们做到了1.34。他们在6月也以1比0击败了同一个对手，但他们也不应该赢得这场胜利!在这场比赛中，东道主在xG上领先哈萨克斯坦0.45分。今年3月，哈萨克斯坦在主场3-2击败丹麦，震惊了足球界。这个结果得到了很多媒体的关注，可能仍然影响着这里的赔率。丹麦队在这场比赛中远没有达到最佳水平，但他们仍然应该赢得这场比赛，因为他们在xG - 2.45-1.53中创造了更多的进球。几天前，丹麦在主场以3-1轻松击败哈萨克斯坦，完成了复仇。

好运！

10月18日芬兰 VS 哈萨克比赛分析直播