Wales vs Croatia

Wales welcome Croatia for this EURO Qualification Group D round 8 battle at Cardiff City Stadium early Monday morning Beijing time. In reality both teams have played five games. The top-2 teams qualify for the EURO 2024 in Germany next summer. If points are tied at the end of the competition, head-to-head matches will be the tiebreaker. The stakes are high here as both teams still have a chance to qualify. In my opinion Croatia’s chances are excellent but I would be very surprised to see Wales qualify – even though they qualified for the World Cup in Qatar last year. Wales have been in decline for about three years now and as their captain and only real star, Gareth Bale, has retired this decline has deepened even further. Bale, an ex-Real Madrid player, was the best Welsh player on the pitch but also an important guy off the pitch. Without him Wales have looked clueless and not very confident on the pitch in many games. Their FIFA ranking has dropped since the World Cup and is currently 33rd. This is still too high. I would rate them as the 37th or 38th team on the planet. They have not beaten a top-50 country for a long time. Indeed, on the 5th of June they beat Ukraine 1-0 at home but did not deserve the win as Ukraine recorded many more goal attempts and shots on goal - 9-2. We have successfully opposed Wales many times and will do the same once again! The biggest bookies with the highest stake limits offer Croatia odds of around 1.90-1.95 for Croatia to win. This is undoubtedly too high - the visitors have a 58% chance of taking all three points. They are in 6th place in the FIFA ranking but this is a little too high though. Wales have taken just seven points so far and would probably need a win here to realistically keep their hope of EURO 2024 alive.. I believe they will take some risks if the score is level late into the second game and this probably would not end well. Croatia have 10 points in their pocket and Turkey have grabbed 10 points. Each team will play a total of eight matches.

Croatia have a very clear edge over Wales in all areas of the game. Indeed, they have allowed just two goals – Wales have conceded seven goals. Their defenders lack individual skill, and the structure has also been much worse than 2019-2021. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is much higher than seven. In the midfield Croatia have Real Madrid legend Luca Modric and Manchester City’s Kovacic who are capable of passing the ball fast and accurately. Yes, they are without Perisic and Kramaric which does hurt but it seems the betting market has overreacted to these absences. Wales, on the other hand, will be missing Captain Aaron Ramsey and Tottenham forward Brennan Johnson which is a big minus! Ramsay, despite being past his prime, is a true leader and capable of scoring important goals. Let’s not forget that Croatia finished in 3rd place in the World Cup last year and lost the World Cup final to France in 2018! They beat Brazil, the number one favourites to lift the trophy according to the bookies, on their way to the semifinal in Qatar but lost to the eventual champions, Argentina. Croatia have netted the ball nine times so far and have massively more individual skill on offense than Wales. The hosts have scored six goals, but I expect them to struggle trying to break the well-organized Croatian defence which also has a lot of individual skill! Their biggest star is the centre-back/left back Joško Gvardiol, 21. He, too, plays for the best team in the word, Manchester City. His market value, according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com is a whopping 80 million euros! Croatia and Wales locked horns in round 1 in March and it was a 1-1 draw at Stadion Poljud in Split. Croatia would have deserved all three points from this game. Indeed, they had 63% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (19-4), shots on goal (8-1) shots off target, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks – 60-2. Moreover, they generated 1.93 in expected goals (xG) – Wales managed just 0.76. Perhaps this result still affects the odds too much here..

Wales beat a horribly bad team, Gibraltar, 4-0 at home in their latest game – it was a friendly match, and the hosts were priced below 1.05 by the bookies to win. On the 11th of September they defeated Latvia away from home but Latvia, but the match was closer than the final score suggests. Latvia generated 1.89 in xG and should have scored at least once! The ball possession was 54-46% in Wales’s favour. Before this they were poor in Turkey losing 0-2 and generated a pathetic 0.29 in xG. In June Armenia took an away win over Wales 4-2! Wales were priced around 1.45 to win by the bookies – yet another example of them being heavily overvalued on the betting market. Croatia lost to Turkey 0-1 at home a few days ago and must be very annoyed by this defeat! Indeed, they had 60% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (17-13), total passes, completed passes, attacks (148-88) and especially dangerous attacks – 73-36. There is, however, no denying the fact that Croatia were far from their normal level and Turkey played above their average level. This happens in football, and we should not react too heavily on one game - as my fans know! Unsurprisingly, this result got a lot of media attention in the football media and seems to affect the odds too much here.. Before this they beat Armenia 1-0 away from home generating massively more in xG than Armenia 3.45-0.15! On the 8th of September they crushed Latvia 5-0.

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

威尔士vs克罗地亚

北京时间周一凌晨，威尔士将在卡迪夫城体育场迎接克罗地亚参加欧洲杯预选赛D组第8轮比赛。实际上两队都打了5场比赛。排名前两名的球队有资格参加明年夏天在德国举行的2024年欧洲杯。如果在比赛结束时得分相等，则进行肉搏赛。两支球队都有机会出线，因此赌注很高。在我看来，克罗地亚的机会非常大，但如果看到威尔士出线，我会感到非常惊讶——尽管他们去年在卡塔尔参加了世界杯。威尔士队的颓势已经持续了三年左右，随着他们的队长、唯一的球星加雷斯·贝尔的退役，这种颓势进一步加深了。贝尔，前皇家马德里球员，是场上最好的威尔士球员，但在场外也是一个重要的家伙。没有他，威尔士在很多比赛中都显得毫无头绪，缺乏自信。自世界杯以来，他们在国际足联的排名有所下降，目前排名第33位。这仍然太高了。我会把他们评为地球上第37或38支球队。他们已经很长时间没有击败排名前50的国家了。事实上，在6月5日，他们在主场1-0击败了乌克兰，但他们并不配得上这场胜利，因为乌克兰的进球次数和射门次数更多——9-2。我们已经成功对抗过威尔士很多次了，我们还会再一次成功!最大的博彩公司以最高的赌注限制为克罗地亚提供了1.90-1.95的赔率，克罗地亚队获胜。这无疑是太高了，客队有58%的机会全取三分。他们在国际足联排名中排名第六，但这有点太高了。威尔士到目前为止只拿到了7分，可能需要一场胜利才能保住2024年欧洲杯的希望。我相信他们会冒一些风险，如果在第二场比赛的最后阶段比分持平，这可能不会有好结果。克罗地亚拿到了10分，土耳其也拿到了10分。每队总共要打八场比赛。

克罗地亚在比赛的各个方面都明显领先威尔士。事实上，他们只丢了两个球，而威尔士丢了7个球。他们的后卫缺乏个人技术，结构也比2019-2021赛季糟糕得多。他们的预期进球数(xGA)远高于7个。克罗地亚中场有皇马的传奇人物卢卡·莫德里奇和曼城的科瓦契奇，他们的传球既快又准。是的，他们没有佩里西奇和克拉马里奇，这确实让人受伤，但似乎博彩市场对这些缺阵反应过度。另一方面，威尔士将失去队长拉姆齐和热刺前锋布伦南·约翰逊，这是一个很大的缺点!拉姆齐，尽管已经过了他的巅峰时期，但他是一个真正的领袖，有能力打进重要的进球。别忘了，克罗地亚去年在世界杯上排名第三，2018年在世界杯决赛中输给了法国!在卡塔尔举行的半决赛中，他们击败了夺冠热门巴西队，但输给了最终的冠军阿根廷队。克罗地亚队到目前为止已经有9次进球，并且在进攻端拥有比威尔士更多的个人技术。东道主已经进了6个球，但我希望他们能努力打破克罗地亚组织严密的防线，克罗地亚的防线也有很多个人技术!他们最大的明星是21岁的中后卫/左后卫Joško Gvardiol。他也效力于世界上最好的球队——曼城。根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，他的市场价值高达8000万欧元!今年3月，克罗地亚和威尔士在斯普利特的波尔热德球场1-1战平。克罗地亚队本可以从这场比赛中得到三分。事实上，他们有63%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数(19-4)，射正次数(8-1)，射偏次数(8-1)，总传球次数，完成传球次数，进攻次数和危险进攻次数(60-2)。此外，他们创造了1.93个预期进球(xG)，而威尔士只创造了0.76个。也许这个结果在这里仍然影响了太多的可能性。

威尔士队在最近的一场比赛中主场4-0击败了一支糟糕透顶的球队直布罗陀队——这是一场友谊赛，博彩公司对东道主的胜率预测低于1.05。9月11日，他们在客场击败了拉脱维亚，但这场比赛比最终比分更接近。拉脱维亚在2009年进球数为1.89，他们至少应该进一个球!控球率是54比46%，威尔士队获胜。在此之前，他们在土耳其的表现很差，0-2输掉了比赛，在xG比赛中打出了可怜的0.29。6月，亚美尼亚客场4-2战胜威尔士!博彩公司对威尔士队的胜率定在1.45左右

这是他们在博彩市场上被严重高估的另一个例子。克罗地亚几天前在主场0-1输给了土耳其，这场失利一定让他们非常恼火!事实上，他们有60%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球次数(17-13次)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数(148-88次)，尤其是危险进攻次数(73-36次)。然而，不可否认的事实是，克罗地亚队的表现与他们的正常水平相差甚远，而土耳其队的表现高于他们的平均水平。足球就是这样，我们不应该对一场比赛反应过度——我的球迷都知道!不出所料，这个结果在足球媒体上得到了很多媒体的关注，似乎对这里的赔率影响太大了。在此之前，他们客场1-0击败亚美尼亚，在xG上的进球比亚美尼亚多出了3.45-0.15!9月8日，他们以5比0大胜拉脱维亚。

10月16日威尔士 VS 克罗地亚比赛分析直播