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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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WE ARE SUPER HOT! $$$ 欧预赛 荷兰VS法国

2023-10-13

比赛分析

主队荷兰LOGO

荷兰

欧预赛

已完赛

星期六2023-10-14 02:45

客队法国LOGO

法国

解读理由

Netherlands vs France


Netherlands welcome France for this EURO Qualification Group B battle at Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam early Saturday morning Beijing time..Football fans and us serious-football bettors can expect an awesome match here! Most importantly, my fans and I have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity to extend the winning streak of six picks! France currently top the standings with 15 points in their pocket. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is lower. They have netted the ball 11 times so far and have not allowed a single goal. This match will most probably be the toughest one for France in the qualification. I have not been fully convinced by France’s offense so far – despite having world class strikers – for example Kylian Mbappe in the team. France’s midfielders should be more active in attacking. France will almost certainly win the group as Netherlands and Greece both have taken nine points. The top-2 teams qualify for the EURO 2024 in Germany next summer. For France even a point would be a decent result here – even a loss would not be a catastrophe. The hosts, on the other hand, desperately need points. I see them having a slight edge in terms of motivation here. Let’s also remember that the Dutch are very enthusiastic about football and the national team! The home advantage here is massive. Yes, France are the better team by pure class – but the difference is not big. France are in 2nd place in the FIFA ranking – the hosts occupy 7th place but should – in my expert opinion – be in 6th place. Taking the home advantage and the motivation factor into account I see France only as extremely marginal favourites. The biggest bookies who accept the biggest bets from customers disagree and offer France odds of only around 2.25 of taking all three points. The Netherlands +0.5 goals handicap is the obvious smart bet here! Yes, I am of course aware of the fact that the hosts’ coach Koeman is now dealing with an injury crisis as Gakpo, Jurrien Timber, Sven Botman, Matthijs de Ligt, Frenkie de Jong, Mark Flekken, Memphis Depay, Noa Lang, Teun Koopmeiners, Tyrell Malacia or Steven Berghuis are out. France, too, have a long list of injured players – Disasi, Fofana, Kounde, Nkunku, Upamecano and Veretout are all unavailable.

There is no denying the fact that the Dutch have not been overly convincing after the World Cup 2022. However, we should not react too much to a few disappointing performances. In the World Cup they forced the eventual champions, Argentina – led by Messi, to penalties. During the 90+30 minutes of play they had 52% ball possession and recorded more total passes, completed passes, attacks (129-88) and dangerous attacks – 36-21. They could easily have won this massive and eventful game! The Netherlands started the qualification by losing 0-4 in France. Yes, France deserved to win but the final score is very misleading and probably affects the odds here quite a lot.. Indeed, the Dutch had 55% ball possession and recorded more total passes, completed passes, attacks (108-62) as well as dangerous attacks. France did record one more goal attempt though but only recorded marginally more in xG - 1.75 - 1.72. Now Netherlands seem to be back on the winning track. Indeed, they have won two matches in a row and looked pretty confident on the pitch in both games. In their most recent match, they defeated Ireland away from home 2-1 despite not being at their best. Ireland, a physically strong team, fought very hard in front of their supporters. Netherlands did record more in xG and we can say that they deserved the narrow win. Before this they easily beat Greece at home – they scored three goals in the first half. In the second half they mainly concentrated on securing the win and did not push very hard. Yes, the final score does flatter them as they did not create even close to 3.00 goals in xG.. However, they defended very well, and Greece managed only one shot on goal and did not generate much xG. France beat Greece only 1-0 at home in June despite being big favourites. Their offensive structure was suboptimal – once again. In their latest match in the qualification, they deservedly beat Ireland 2-0 at home but generated “only” 1.52 in xG. Ireland managed 0.56. In their most recent game, they lost to Germany 1-2 at Signal Iduna Park in a friendly match where neither team seemed to be 100% motivated to fight hard for every ball..



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

荷兰vs法国


北京时间周六凌晨,荷兰队将在阿姆斯特丹约翰·克鲁伊夫体育场欢迎法国队参加欧洲杯预选赛B组的比赛,球迷们和我们这些认真的足球投注者可以期待一场精彩的比赛了!最重要的是,我和我的粉丝还有另一个非常有利可图的投注机会来延续六连胜!法国队目前以15分排名第一。然而,它们的期望值(xPTS)较低。到目前为止,他们已经射门11次,没有失球。这场比赛很可能是法国队在预选赛中最艰难的一场。到目前为止,我还没有完全相信法国队的进攻,尽管他们拥有世界级的前锋,比如姆巴佩。法国队的中场应该更加积极主动地进攻。荷兰队和希腊队都已拿到9分,法国队几乎肯定会赢得小组第一。排名前两名的球队有资格参加明年夏天在德国举行的2024年欧洲杯。对于法国队来说,哪怕一分也会是一个不错的结果——即使输球也不会是一场灾难。另一方面,东道主迫切需要积分。我看到他们在动力方面有一点优势。我们还要记住,荷兰人对足球和国家队是非常热情的!主场优势是巨大的。是的,法国队在纯粹级别上更胜一筹,但差距并不大。法国在国际足联排名中排名第二,东道主排名第七,但在我的专家意见中,应该排在第六位。考虑到主场优势和动力因素,我认为法国只是一个非常边缘的热门。接受客户最大赌注的最大博彩公司不同意这一观点,他们给出的法国队的赔率只有2.25左右。荷兰队+0.5个进球障碍显然是明智的赌注!是的,我当然知道东道主主帅科曼现在正面临着伤病危机,因为加波、尤伦·图尔、斯文·博特曼、马蒂亚斯·德莱特、弗兰基·德容、马克·弗莱肯、孟菲斯·德佩、诺亚·朗、图恩·库梅纳斯、提利尔·马拉西亚和史蒂文·伯格斯都缺阵了。法国队也有一长串的伤兵名单——迪纳西、福法纳、孔德、恩昆库、乌帕梅卡诺和维列图都不能上场。

不可否认的事实是,荷兰队在2022年世界杯后并没有表现得过于令人信服。然而,我们不应该对一些令人失望的表现反应过度。在世界杯上,他们迫使最终的冠军,由梅西带领的阿根廷队进入点球大战。在90+30分钟的比赛中,他们有52%的控球率,记录了更多的总传球、完成传球、进攻(129-88)和危险进攻(36-21)。他们本可以轻松赢得这场重要的比赛!荷兰队在预选赛中以0-4不敌法国。是的,法国队应该获胜,但最终比分很容易误导人,可能会很大程度上影响赔率。事实上,荷兰队有55%的控球率,并且记录了更多的总传球、完成传球、进攻(108胜62负)和危险进攻。法国队也有过一次进球尝试,但只比法国队多了1.75 - 1.72。现在,荷兰似乎又回到了胜利的轨道上。事实上,他们已经连续赢了两场比赛,而且在两场比赛中看起来都非常自信。在最近的一场比赛中,他们在客场2-1击败了爱尔兰队,尽管他们并没有处于最佳状态。爱尔兰是一支身体强壮的球队,在他们的支持者面前打得非常努力。荷兰队在世界杯上确实取得了更多的进球,我们可以说他们应该以微弱优势取胜。在此之前,他们在主场轻松击败了希腊——他们在上半场就进了三个球。在下半场,他们主要集中精力确保胜利,并没有非常努力。是的,最后的比分确实让他们感到高兴,因为他们在g赛季没有创造接近300个进球。然而,他们的防守非常好,希腊只有一次射门,并没有产生太多的射门。今年6月,法国在主场仅以1比0击败希腊,尽管他们是夺冠热门。他们的进攻结构又是次优的。在预选赛的最后一场比赛中,他们当之无愧地在主场以2比0击败爱尔兰,但在xG比赛中“仅”获得1.52分。爱尔兰获得0.56分。在最近的一场友谊赛中,他们在信号伊杜纳公园以1比2输给了德国,两支球队似乎都没有百分之百的动力去争夺每一个球。

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