In my opinion Azerbaijan have really good chances to make at least one point in this game.

Both teams without any chances for qualification to Euro2024, both teams are on very low level in overall and very similar to each other in terms of skills, potential and ambitions (it’s visible in FIFA ranking: Estonia #115, Azerbaijan #121). So why I trust for Azerbaijan here?

I believe Azerbaijan have more solid and much more consistent defensive formation and that should really make big difference at the end of the day.

I saw Azerbaijan last round match when they played at home against one of the strongest team on the world – Belgium. Match finished with small 1:0 win for Belgium and that was really good performance from Azerbaijan, especially at the back. Belgium scored 12 goals in 4 matches before that game, but Azerbaijan conceded only one goal against them and had 0.81 expected goals conceded. In addition to that, Azerbaijan had some chances to score (0.70 expected goals scored). All key players are available today so I believe guests have all required tools to make huge troubles for Estonia.

Estonia coming for this game with confidence on the lowest possible level as they lost last 3 matches with huge difference: 0:3 against Belgium at home, 0:5 against Sweden at home and 0:5 against Belgium on away. Defensive formation is really unstable and don’t have any consistency at all. In addition to that, Estonia today will play without their best central defender Karol Mets (he is suspended). It’s huge blow and should have very bad impact on their performance.

On those circumstances I see great chances for guests to avoid loss here.

在我看来，阿塞拜疆有很好的机会在这场比赛中至少得一分。

这两支球队都没有机会参加2024年欧洲杯，两支球队的整体水平都很低，在技术、潜力和雄心方面非常相似(从国际足联排名中可以看出:爱沙尼亚排名第115位，阿塞拜疆排名第121位)。那么我为什么相信阿塞拜疆呢?

我相信阿塞拜疆有更加稳固和稳定的防守阵型，这在比赛结束的时候会有很大的不同。

我看了阿塞拜疆上一轮的比赛，他们在主场对阵世界上最强的球队之一——比利时。比赛以比利时1:0的小胜结束，阿塞拜疆的表现真的很好，尤其是在后场。在那场比赛之前，比利时在4场比赛中进了12球，但阿塞拜疆只丢了1球，预计丢0.81球。除此之外，阿塞拜疆也有进球的机会(预期进球数为0.70)。所有关键人物今天都有空，所以我相信客人们都有必要给爱沙尼亚制造大麻烦的工具。

爱沙尼亚带着最低水平的信心来参加这场比赛，因为他们在过去的三场比赛中都以巨大的差距输掉了比赛:主场0:3输给比利时，主场0:5输给瑞典，客场0:5输给比利时。防守阵型真的很不稳定，一点都不稳定。除此之外，爱沙尼亚今天将失去他们最好的中卫卡罗尔·梅茨(他被禁赛)。这是一个巨大的打击，应该会对他们的表现产生非常糟糕的影响。

在这种情况下，我认为客人们很有可能避免损失。