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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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GREAT results in this competition! $$$

2023-10-13

比赛分析

主队奥地利LOGO

奥地利

欧预赛

已完赛

星期六2023-10-14 02:45

客队比利时LOGO

比利时

解读理由

Austria VS Belgium


Austria welcome Belgium for this EURO Qualification round 7 battle at Ernst Happel Stadion in Vienna early Saturday morning Beijing time. However, in reality, both teams have played five games so far. This match will surely be one of the best games to watch on Saturday. Most importantly, we have yet another lucrative betting opportunity to increase the winning streak of six picks. Both teams have played well in the qualification – not losing a game so far. Austria have netted the ball 12 times and have allowed four goals. Belgium, on the other hand, have scored 13 goals and have conceded just one goal. Both teams have 13 points to their account and have an excellent chance of qualifying for the EURO 2024 in Germany next summer. Indeed, Sweden, in third place, have taken just six points. Two countries from each group qualify. Despite Austria having played I see a pretty clear difference in terms of pure class as well as successes in the past. Belgium were not at their best in the World Cup in Qatar last year but were somewhat unlucky not qualifying for the playoffs. They would have needed a win against Croatia in the last group phase match, but it was a goalless draw. Lukaku wasted numerous excellent scoring chances in this game. Austria did not even qualify for this tournament. Let’s also remember that Belgium occupy the 5th place in the FIFA ranking. Austria, on the other hand, are only in the 25th place.

The teams locked horns in June, and it was a 1-1 draw in Belgium. The hosts would have deserved a narrow win as they had 54% ball possession and also recorded many more goal attempts, goal attempts (17-11), shots off goal, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks (110-86) and especially dangerous attacks – 46-25. Belgium also generated more in expected goals (xG) 1.13-0.67 to be precise. Both teams have been in strong form lately – not losing any of their latest seven games. However, Belgium have looked much better than Austria in most games lately! Both teams are missing many key players here but Belgium have a deeper squad with better-quality replacements for the absentees. Austria will be without defensive trio David Alaba, Stefan Posch and Gernot Trauner due to injuries. Striker Marko Arnautovic is also absent due to a thigh problem. Marcel Sabitzer and Christoph Baumgartner are both also probably out - or at not least 100% fit. As for Belgium and Ameen Al-Dakhil are injured have both withdrawn from the squad. Manchester City’s world-class midfielder Kevin De Bruyne and goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois cannot really be replaced but Koen Casteels is a talented goalkeeper. It seems that the betting market has overreacted to De Bruyne being out. Indeed, the biggest bookmakers who accept the biggest bets from customers see Belgium only as slim favourites - offering them odds of around 2.55-2.60 to win. I see them having a 44% chance of taking all three points. We will take the Belgium +0.5 goals handicap option to try and extend the winning streak of five picks betting on the EURO Qualification. Austria do not have the best fans by European standards so the home advantage here is slightly lower than on average in international matches. In their most recent game Austria beat Sweden away from home 3-1. However, the match could have gone either way. The ball possession was almost 50-50%. Sweden recorded more goal attempts (18-12), shots off goal (6-2), corner kicks, attacks (128-76) and especially dangerous attacks – 70-33. Both teams generated 1.21 in xG. Before this they failed to beat Moldova, a poor team at home. It was a 1-1 draw at the Raiffeisen Arena in Linz. Austria were priced around 1.15 to win on the betting market. Belgium, on the other hand, completely crushed Estonia in their latest match. It was a 5-0 win at home. Belgium had “only” 70% ball possession but recorded a whopping 22 goal attempts, Estonia managed just one. Moreover, the hosts had nine shots on target – Estonia failed to record any. The poor Estonia also generated only 0.05 in expected goals (xG). Lastly I want to mention that Belgium have not allowed any goals in their most recent three matches and won them all!


GOOD LUCK!



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

奥地利VS比利时


北京时间周六凌晨,奥地利将在维也纳恩斯特哈佩尔球场迎来与比利时的欧洲杯预选赛第七轮大战。然而,实际上,两队到目前为止已经打了5场比赛。这场比赛肯定是星期六最值得观看的比赛之一。最重要的是,我们还有另一个赚钱的投注机会来增加六次的连胜纪录。两支球队在预选赛中都打得很好,到目前为止没有输过一场比赛。奥地利共打进12球,失4球。另一方面,比利时进了13球,只丢了1球。两支球队目前都有13分,很有可能获得明年夏天在德国举行的2024年欧洲杯的参赛资格。事实上,排名第三的瑞典只拿到了6分。每组各有两个国家出线。尽管奥地利在过去的比赛中有过比赛,但我在纯粹的水平和过去的成功方面看到了相当明显的差异。比利时在去年的卡塔尔世界杯上表现不佳,但不幸的是没有进入季后赛。在小组赛最后一场比赛中,他们本需要战胜克罗地亚,但结果是一场0比0的平局。卢卡库在本场比赛中浪费了许多绝佳的得分机会。奥地利甚至没有获得本届世界杯的参赛资格。让我们也记住,比利时在国际足联排名中排名第五。另一方面,奥地利仅排在第25位。

两队在6月发生争执,在比利时以1比1战平。东道主本应以微弱优势取胜,因为他们有54%的控球率,而且他们的进球次数、射门次数(17胜11负)、射偏、角球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数(110胜86负)以及特别危险的进攻次数(46胜25负)也更多。比利时队的预期进球数也更多(准确地说是1.13-0.67)。这两支球队最近的状态都很好,最近七场比赛都没有输过一场。然而,比利时在最近的大多数比赛中看起来都比奥地利好得多!两支球队都缺少了很多关键球员,但是比利时有一个更有深度的阵容,可以更好地替换缺阵的球员。奥地利后卫三人组阿拉巴、波什和特劳纳将因伤缺阵。前锋马尔科·阿瑙托维奇也因大腿伤势缺阵。马塞尔·萨比策和克里斯托夫·鲍姆加特纳也可能缺阵——或者至少不是100%的健康。至于比利时和阿米恩·达希尔都因伤退出了大名单。曼城的世界级中场德布鲁因和门将库尔图瓦是无可替代的,但卡斯蒂尔斯是一名天才门将。博彩市场似乎对德布鲁因出局反应过度。事实上,那些接受客户最大投注的最大博彩公司认为,比利时夺冠的可能性很小,赔率约为2.55-2.60。我认为他们有44%的机会拿到全部三分。我们将采取比利时+0.5个进球障碍的选项,以尝试延续五次下注欧洲杯预选赛的连胜纪录。按照欧洲的标准,奥地利并没有最好的球迷,所以在这里的主场优势略低于国际比赛的平均水平。在最近的一场比赛中,奥地利客场3-1击败瑞典。然而,这场比赛可能会有任何结果。控球率几乎是50%。瑞典的进球次数(18胜12负)、射偏(6胜2负)、角球、进攻(128胜76负),尤其是危险进攻(70胜33负)更多。两支球队在xG中都产生了1.21。在此之前,他们未能击败摩尔多瓦队,这是一支在主场表现不佳的球队。在林茨的赖夫森竞技场,双方以1比1战平。在博彩市场上,奥地利的胜率在1.15左右。另一方面,比利时在最近的比赛中彻底击败了爱沙尼亚。这是一场主场5:0的胜利。比利时“只有”70%的控球率,但却有22次射门,爱沙尼亚只有1次。此外,东道主有9次射正,而爱沙尼亚一次也没有射正。贫穷的爱沙尼亚也只有0.05个预期进球(xG)。最后我想提一下,比利时在最近的三场比赛中没有失球,而且都赢了!


好运!

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