A game, where a draw will not work for anyone.

The setup is simple - a draw for Schalke will officially confirm their relegation to Bundesliga 2. Whereas relegation threatened Arminia, failure to take maximum points here tonight will seriously decrease their survival chance with just 5 games left in the competition. The schedule for Arminia is not critical, however, Schalke is by far the easiest and most realistic chance for 3 points and hosts will have to eat ground to get it.

In the following weeks Arminia is going to face motivated Gladbach (away) and fellow relegation competitor Hertha (in Berlin). Then in the final 2 rounds games against then unmotivated Hoffenheim and Stuttgart.

Schalke is 13 pts behind safety with 15 pts left to play for - so the math is easy here. Anything else but a win will officially take the club to Bundesliga2. Nobody in Germany goes out with a draw really, even in the most hopeless situation as Schalke find themselves in. They should put on a fight, but eventually lack of 100% motivation and composure against a superior motivated opponent should see them succumb to a defeat.

Arminia hasn’t been bad since the manager change and have won 2 games over the last 5 rounds, losing just once - to RB Leipzig. Considering I simply can’t see the game ending in a draw, obviously, I’d be picking a home win as the most likely outcome.