Bolton Wanderers VS Carlisle United

Bolton welcome Carlisle for this English League One battle at Toughsheet Community Stadium late Saturday evening Beijing time. This is the third-highest tier of English football. It is definitely the best third-tier in the world. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of average level by this league’s standards here. There is no doubt about the fact that Bolton are the better team and deserve to be the favorites here. Even so, the betting market seems to clearly overvalue this traditional club – especially in handicap betting. We will go for the Carlisle +1.5 goals handicap option with a big chance of winning. Bolton even played in the Premier League some ten years ago but after that it has not been easy for this club. Yes, last season they finished in 5th place with a total of 81 points but a whopping 20 points behind Plymouth who took first place and were promoted to the Championship. They were lucky last season in terms of expected points (xPTS) as they would have deserved only 76.12 points. I do not expect them to have a much better season this season. They currently occupy the 3rd place in the standings with 20 points in their pocket but their number of xPTS is only 17.35.

Bolton have netted the ball 18 times so far but their number of expected goals (xG) is just 16.12. Their defense has not fully convinced me so far – they have conceded 12 goals and have not been either lucky or unlucky in terms of number of expected goals allowed (xGA). Their defensive structure is not top-level by League One standards and I see Carlisle having a good chance of scoring here. Bolton’s defenders sometimes give too risky passes and I do not see them having much potential for improvement defensively. In their most recent match, their defense was – once again – somewhat shaky but they managed to beat Stevenage at home 3-2 as clear favorites on the betting market. However, the visitors recorded more goal attempts, attacks and especially dangerous attacks. Carlisle are a newly promoted team but their squad’s estimated market value is only about 30% lower than that of Bolton’s – according to Transfermarkt.com. They have grabbed just eight points so far but their number of xPTS is 10.78 and can definitely improve in all areas of the game. Their offense does lack individual skill but they fight hard and I expect them to be pretty defensive here – even if Bolton were to take 1-0 lead.

博尔顿VS卡莱尔联队

北京时间周六晚，博尔顿将在主场迎战卡莱尔。这是英国足球的第三级联赛。这绝对是世界上最好的三线球场。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的足球投注者可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的平均水平的比赛。毫无疑问，博尔顿是一支更好的球队，应该成为最受欢迎的球队。即便如此，博彩市场似乎明显高估了这个传统俱乐部的价值——尤其是在障碍博彩方面。我们会选择卡莱尔+1.5个进球障碍的选项，这有很大的获胜机会。博尔顿甚至在大约十年前踢过英超联赛，但在那之后，这支俱乐部就不容易了。是的，上赛季他们以81分的总分排名第五，但比第一名普利茅斯落后了20分，普利茅斯后来升入了英冠。他们上赛季在期望积分(xPTS)方面很幸运，因为他们本应该得到76.12分。我不期望他们本赛季会有更好的表现。目前他们以20分的成绩排在积分榜的第三位，但是他们的积分只有17.35分。

博尔顿目前已经打进18球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)只有16.12个。到目前为止，他们的防守还没有完全让我信服——他们已经丢了12个球，在预期失球的数量上，他们既不幸运也不不幸(xGA)。他们的防守结构以英甲标准来看不是顶级的，我认为卡莱尔在这里有很好的进球机会。博尔顿的后卫有时会给太危险的传球，我不认为他们在防守上有很大的提升空间。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们的防守——再一次——有些不稳定，但他们在主场以3-2击败了斯蒂夫尼奇，成为博彩市场上明显的热门。然而，客队的进球次数、进攻次数，尤其是危险的进攻次数更多。根据Transfermarkt.com的数据，卡莱尔是一支新升级的球队，但他们的球队市场价值只比博尔顿低30%左右。他们目前只拿到了8分，但他们的得分是10.78，在比赛的各个方面都有进步。他们的进攻确实缺乏个人技巧，但他们战斗很努力，我希望他们在这里防守得很好——即使博尔顿1-0领先。