I don't believe Atletico is the favored team in this match.

Osasuna is a highly competitive team. While they've only won 2 games so far, I expect them to finish the season in the top 10 and contend for the Conference League. They possess significant potential, and personally, I think they haven't been performing at their best.

In their last two games (0:0 against Sevilla, 3:2 loss against Getafe), they deserved to win but missed some critical chances and lacked defensive strength. This is an area they must work on, especially considering they've conceded 8 goals in 6 games, whereas defense used to be their stronghold. Given their lack of a reliable goal scorer and not being a high-scoring team, their victories and points rely on a sturdy defense and narrow scorelines.

The return of the crucial midfielder Moncayola from injury is a positive aspect for them in this match.

However, Atletico Madrid is the main point of concern. They're coming off a significant 3:1 victory against Real Madrid in the derby, which could lead to overconfidence. Moreover, Coach Simeone will face significant challenges in this midweek round due to the considerable number of absentees. Atletico Madrid has only 15 players available from the first team, and 2 of them are goalkeepers.

They have a total of 9 absences (Pablo Barrios, Correa, Savic, Lemar, Depay, De Paul, Vitolo, Reinildo, Soyuncu) for this fixture, restricting their ability to rotate players, and their squad will likely face fatigue from the game against Madrid on Sunday. Additionally, they've lost one of their best players (Carrasco) who moved to a team in Saudi Arabia, and Atletico hasn't signed any replacement.

Atletico has shown inconsistent performance. They've had great games (against Real Madrid, Rayo Vallecano) but also terrible performances like against Betis (0:0) or Valencia (3:0 loss), where the team struggled to create any chances and made defensive errors.

They no longer exhibit the solid defensive prowess they had in previous years. Creating opportunities against them is relatively easy, and their success upfront heavily relies on the form of strikers Morata or Griezmann. In my opinion, Morata, who has been overperforming this season, is a weak striker, and Griezmann is yet to reach his peak form.

If Osasuna plays at 100% with determination and motivation at home (which I have no doubts about), Atletico will find it challenging to match their intensity. As mentioned, Atletico is an unpredictable team; they can dominate a game with a 7:0 victory but can also lose 3:0 without creating a single chance. Considering their busy schedule, the significant number of absentees, and the fact that they're coming from a major victory, I anticipate the latter scenario with a subpar performance from Atletico.

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我认为马竞队在这场比赛中不受欢迎。

奥萨苏纳是一支竞争激烈的球队。虽然到目前为止他们只赢了2场比赛，但我预计他们将在本赛季结束时进入前10名，并争夺联盟冠军。他们拥有巨大的潜力，我个人认为他们还没有发挥出最好的水平。

在最近的两场比赛中(0:0对阵塞维利亚，3:2输给赫塔菲)，他们理应获胜，但错过了一些关键机会，防守力量不足。这是他们必须努力的地方，特别是考虑到他们在6场比赛中丢了8个球，而防守曾经是他们的据点。考虑到他们缺乏可靠的得分手，也不是一支得分很高的球队，他们的胜利和得分依赖于坚固的防守和狭窄的得分线。

关键中场蒙卡约拉伤愈复出对他们在这场比赛中是一个积极的方面。

然而，马德里竞技是主要的关注点。他们刚刚在德比中3:1大胜皇马，这可能会导致过度自信。此外，教练西蒙尼将面临重大挑战，在这周中的一轮，由于相当多的缺阵。马德里竞技只有15名一线队球员，其中2名是守门员。

他们在这场比赛中总共有9人缺阵(巴里奥斯、科雷亚、萨维奇、勒马尔、德佩、德保罗、维托洛、雷尼尔多、索云库)，这限制了他们轮换球员的能力，而且他们的阵容很可能会因为周日对阵马德里的比赛而感到疲劳。此外，他们失去了最好的球员之一卡拉斯科(Carrasco)，他转会到沙特阿拉伯的一支球队，而马竞还没有签下任何替代者。

马竞表现不稳定。他们有很棒的比赛(对阵皇家马德里，巴列卡诺)，但也有糟糕的表现，比如对阵贝蒂斯(0:0)或瓦伦西亚(3:0输球)，球队努力创造机会，防守失误。

他们不再像前几年那样展现出坚实的防守能力。对他们创造机会相对容易，他们的成功在很大程度上依赖于前锋莫拉塔或格列兹曼的状态。在我看来，本赛季表现出色的莫拉塔是一名弱前锋，格列兹曼还没有达到他的巅峰状态。

如果奥萨苏纳在主场以100%的决心和动力发挥(我对此毫不怀疑)，马竞将会发现很难达到他们的强度。如前所述，马竞是一支不可预测的球队;他们可以以7:0的胜利统治比赛，但也可以在没有创造任何机会的情况下以3:0输掉比赛。考虑到他们繁忙的赛程，大量的缺阵球员，以及他们刚刚取得一场重大胜利的事实，我预计马竞会出现后一种情况。

09月29日奥萨苏纳 VS 马竞比赛分析直播