I waited with this bet until last moment because I wanted to see the most possible line ups for today's match up.

Watford today is without their key striker and team captain Troy Deeney (7 goals). In addition to that they are without their two key central midfielders Nathaniel Chalobah (36 matches) and Tom Cleverley (30 matches). Key central defender William Troost-Ekong (29 matches) is unavailable as well. In normal conditions all of them will be in first line to start the game from first minute.

Both clubs are not in good relations - they are real enemies and I'm sure Luton will play very aggressive with big motivation to stop Watford today.

I saw Watford in last round match at home against Reading. Yes, they won, but they didn't looked convincing at all. Reading played better, had more shots and higher ball possession. According to expected goals scored model Reading should win, they had 1.88, Watford only 0.75. On the other hand Luton in last round made good come back win on away Wycombe. They were behind until 80' but then they scored 3 goals in 8 minutes and that should be big boost of confidence for all team before today's game.

Luton is solid home team - they didn't lost in 13 of 19 home matches in current season. On the other hand Watford is very average on away as they recorded only 7 wins in 20 away matches so far.

I see very good value on home side, especially with these absences.

我一直等到最后一刻，因为我想看到今天比赛中最有可能出现的阵容。

沃特福德今天失去了他们的关键前锋和队长特洛伊·迪尼(7球)。除此之外，他们还缺少了两名关键的中场纳撒尼尔·查洛巴(36场比赛)和汤姆·克莱维利(30场比赛)。关键的中后卫威廉·特罗斯特-埃贡(29场比赛)也不能上场。在正常情况下，他们都是首发球员。

两家俱乐部的关系不太好，他们是真正的敌人，我相信卢顿今天会用强大的动力来进攻沃特福德。

我看了沃特福德上一轮主场对阵雷丁的比赛。是的，他们赢了，但他们看起来一点都不令人信服。雷丁踢得更好，出手射门，控球率更高。根据预期进球模型雷丁应该获胜，他们有1.88，沃特福德只有0.75。另一方面，卢顿在上一轮对维康比的比赛中扳回了一城。他们一直落后到80分钟，但是之后他们在8分钟内进了3个球，在今天的比赛之前，这对整个球队来说都是一个很大的信心。

卢顿是一支稳固的主场球队——他们在本赛季的19场主场比赛中13场没有输掉。另一方面，沃特福德在客场表现平平，目前为止他们在20场客场比赛中只取得了7胜。

我觉得卢顿不败很有价值，尤其是在球员缺席的情况下。