Urawa Red Diamonds VS Kyoto Sanga

Urawa Reds welcome Kyoto for this Japanese J1 League round 27 battle at Saitama Stadium Friday evening Beijing time. This is the best league in Asia. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of decent level by the J1 League standards. My fans and I have done very well betting on this league – and two J2 League as well. I will be posting a pick on this league in a few hours. We have yet another lucrative betting opportunity here.There is a significant edge in class between the two teams and I expect the hosts to control the events on the pitch for the most of the 90 minutes. They have a demanding and loud home crowd – not the very best in Japan though. I expect Urawa to put big pressure on the visitors' often shaky defense right from the kickoff. Kyoto will most probably defend hard . Mainly relying on counter attacks, free kicks and corner kicks to score. I believe they would be very happy with a point here. They have been a poor team on the road this season – losing eight of the 13 away games. This is the biggest number in this league!  Urawa have a clear edge over Kyoto in all areas of the game. They also beat Kyoto earlier this season 2-0 away from home. The hosts did much better than Kyoto last season already -  finishing in 9th place. Indeed, the visitors ended up in 16th place with just 36 points to their account and were close to being relegated! This season they have been a little better though and have grabbed 29 points and occupy the 14th place in this league with a total of 18 clubs. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is only 27.02. Urawa have improved from last season and could quite possibly even make it to the top-3! They have 45 points in their pocket and are in fifth place. They have not been lucky or unlucky in terms of xPTS.

The visitors have allowed 36 goals in the J1 League so far but this is a bit misleading as their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 39.98. defensive structure is relatively poor and especially in away games the defenders often make silly individual mistakes. Furthermore, the midfielders often look lazy at defending.. Offensively they are not awful and have netted the ball 30 times in this league so far. In this area of the game the hosts' edge over Kyoto is smaller than in terms of defensive class. I do not see Kyoto having any true potential for improvement in any area of the game. Indeed, offensively Urawa have not been quite top-level though but have been unlucky in terms of expected goals (xG). They would have deserved 34.09 goals in terms of xG. They have been impressive at home recently. Indeed, they have not lost any of their latest 13 games at home! Furthermore, Urawa Reds have been in impressive form lately winning five of their latest six games. Last Sunday they crushed Kyoto in an YBC Levain Cup 2nd leg at this same stadium 3-0 despite not having the optimal starting eleven. The visitors failed to record any shots on goal - Urawa managed eight. The match was, however, still more balanced than the final score would suggest. They beat Gamba Osaka also in the first leg 1-0. Before defeating Gamba they played a 1-1 draw away from home against Albirex Niigata away from home but generated more in xG – 1.42-0.89. Furthermore, on the 25th of August they totally deservedly beat Shonan Bellmare 1-0 away from home generating 0.87 more than the hosts in xG. Yes, Shonan Bellmare, the rock-bottom team at the moment, are a much more dangerous team than the standings would reflect. 

Kyoto, on the other hand, were not terribly bad in their most recent game losing to Vissel Kobe away from home 1-2. The hosts did, however, generate much more in xG – 0.98-0.45 to be precise. Before this they beat Avispa Fukuoka 2-0 at home but the final score is extremely misleading! Indeed, the visitors had 64% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (10-7), shots off goal (9-3), total passes (522-197), completed passes (401-124), attacks and especially dangerous attacks - 75-15! On the 19th of August they defeated Hokkaido Consadolo Sapporo 3-0 at home but the visitors had 57% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts, shots on target, attacks and dangerous attacks. They also generated more than Kyoto n xG – 2.21-1.85. These two somewhat lucky wins seem to affect the odds too much here! Odds of around 1.65-1.70 are widely available on Urawa Reds to win this clash at the time of posting this preview and must be taken! Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis the hosts have a 65% chance to take all three points!

浦和红钻VS京都Sanga

北京时间周五晚上浦和红军将在埼玉体育场迎来日本J1联赛第27轮对战京都。这是亚洲最好的联赛。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以J1联赛标准衡量的体面的比赛。我的球迷和我在这个联赛和两个J2联赛上都做得很好。我将在几个小时内发布这个联盟的选秀。我们还有另一个赚钱的机会。两支球队在级别上有明显的优势，我希望东道主能在90分钟的大部分时间里控制场上的局势。他们的主场观众要求很高，声音很大，但在日本并不是最好的。我希望浦和能从开球开始就对客队脆弱的防守施加巨大的压力。京都很可能会严防死守。主要依靠反击、任意球和角球得分。我相信他们会很高兴得到这一点。他们本赛季在客场表现不佳，13场客场比赛输掉了8场。这是联盟中最大的数字!浦和在游戏的所有领域都有明显的优势。本赛季早些时候，他们还在客场2-0击败京都。东道主上赛季的表现已经比京都好得多了——排在第9位。事实上，客队最终仅以36分的积分排在第16位，差一点就降级了!本赛季他们表现得更好一些，拿到了29分，在联赛中排名第14位，总共有18家俱乐部。他们的期望值(xPTS)只有27.02。浦和比上赛季有了很大的进步，甚至有可能进入前三!他们现在有45分，排在第五位。在xPTS方面，他们既不幸运也不不幸。

到目前为止，客队在J1联赛中丢了36个球，但这有点误导，因为他们的预期失球数(xGA)是39.98。防守结构相对较差，特别是在客场比赛中，后卫经常犯愚蠢的个人错误。此外，中场球员通常在防守方面看起来很懒。在进攻端，他们并不糟糕，到目前为止，他们在联盟中已经有30次进球。在游戏的这个区域，东道主在京都的优势比在防御类方面要小。我不认为《京都议定书》在游戏的任何领域有任何真正的改进潜力。事实上，浦和在进攻端并没有达到顶级水平，但在预期进球方面却不太走运。他们应该得到34.09个进球。他们最近在国内的表现令人印象深刻。事实上，他们在最近的13场主场比赛中没有输过一场!此外，浦和红军最近的状态令人印象深刻，在最近的六场比赛中赢了五场。上周日，在YBC列文杯的第二回合比赛中，尽管没有最佳的首发11人，他们还是在这个球场以3比0大胜京都。客队没有任何射门，浦和进了8球。然而，这场比赛仍然比最终比分所显示的更加平衡。他们在首回合也以1比0击败大阪钢巴。在击败甘巴之前，他们在客场1-1战平了新潟，但在xG - 1.42-0.89的比赛中取得了更多的进球。此外，在8月25日，他们在客场1-0击败了韩国雄南贝尔梅尔，比东道主多出0.87分，这是当之无愧的。是的，目前垫底的秀南-贝尔梅尔队比排名所反映的要危险得多。

另一方面，京都在最近一场客场1-2输给神户的比赛中表现得并不糟糕。然而，宿主在xG(确切地说是0.98-0.45)中确实产生了更多。在此之前，他们在主场以2比0击败福冈，但最终的比分非常具有误导性!事实上，客队有64%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球次数(10胜7负)，射门次数(9胜3负)，总传球次数(522胜197次)，完成传球次数(401胜124次)，进攻，尤其是危险进攻——75胜15负!8月19日，他们在主场3-0击败北海道札幌，但客队控球率为57%，进球次数、射正次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。他们也产生了超过京都在xG - 2.21-1.85。这两个有点幸运的胜利似乎对赔率影响太大了!在发布这篇预览的时候，浦和红军赢得这场冲突的赔率大约是1.65-1.70，必须采取!根据我精密的数据分析东道主有65%的几率拿下全部三分!