Gimnasia La Plata VS Velez Sarsfield

Gimnasia La Plata welcome Velez Sarsfield for this Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional round 4 clash at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata early Thursday morning Beijing time. We can expect a match of somewhat mediocre level here between these two teams. This League is of average level by global standards. However, it is still the second-best league in South America, after the Brazilian Serie A. Furthermore, this league is, similarly to many other South American leagues – for example the Brazilian Serie A - a low-scoring one on average. Here the goal expectancy is higher than on average. In my expert opinion, the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 71 %. Velez Sarsfield usually play pretty defensived and well-organized football in away games. Moreover, the hosts offense has been very lame recently. It lacks speed, individual skill, creativity as well as passing accuracy at critical moments. Indeed, they have scored just one goal in their most recent three games. They have been in abysmal form lately! Yes, they have not won any of their latest 11 games – losing 6/11. Moreover, they have now lost three games in a row and are clearly low in confidence. To make it worse, according to my reports their team spirit is far from great. They are expected to be without Abaldo, Chavez, Calazo, Guiffrey and Miranda. With the expected lineups the visitors are clearly the stronger team and deserve to be solid favorites. They have a clear edge in all areas of the game!The biggest, sometimes relatively smart bookies see this match as more or less a coin toss – without a favorite – offering both teams odds of around 2.70 to take all three points at the time of writing this preview late Wednesday evening Beijing time. Velez Sarsfield +0.5 goals is the obvious smart bet here!

According to a well-known and respected German website the hosts' squad has an estimated market value of around 21 million euros. This is a bit too high. The Velez Sarsfield squad, on the other hand, is valued at approximately 42 million. This is more or less correct in my expert opinion. In their most recent match the hosts were not terribly bad despite losing 1-2 to Independiente at home but the visitors did generate more in expected goals (xG) 0.98-0.56 to be precise. The home fans were totally understandably, very frustrated and I do not expect the atmosphere at the stadium to be too good.. Before this they were beaten by Colon Santa Fe 0-2 at Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López. The hosts did deserve the win as they had many more shots on target and generated much more in xG – 1.89-0.75. The visitors have been in decent form. In their most recent game they were excellent and beat one of the two iconic, and richest teams in Argentina, River Plate as home as clear underdogs according to the betting market – priced around 4.30 to win. This is yet another example of Velez Sarsfield being undervalued on the betting market. They recorded more goal attempts (14-9), shots on goal as well as shots off goal. Moreover, they generated 0.89 in xG – the visitors managed just 0.39! What a fine performance – especially defensively. Before this they faced Independiente away and home and lost 1-2 but it was a balanced battle. The hosts had 52% ball possession and both teams generated 1.12 in xG.

拉普拉塔VS萨斯菲尔德

北京时间周四凌晨，拉普拉塔Gimnasia La Plata将在拉普拉塔Juan Carmelo Zerillo球场迎来与萨斯菲尔德的西甲联赛第四轮比赛。我们可以预期这两支球队会有一场水平一般的比赛。按照国际标准，这个联赛属于中等水平。然而，它仍然是南美洲第二好的联赛，仅次于巴西甲级联赛。此外，与许多其他南美联赛(例如巴西甲级联赛)相似，这个联赛的平均进球数很低。这里的进球预期高于平均水平。在我看来，总进球数少于2.5个的概率是71%。萨斯菲尔德通常在客场比赛中防守严密，组织严密。此外，东道主最近的进攻很蹩脚。它缺乏速度、个人技术、创造力以及关键时刻的传球准确性。事实上，他们在最近的三场比赛中只进了一个球。他们最近的状态糟透了!是的，他们最近的11场比赛没有赢过一场，11场6负。此外，他们已经连续输了三场比赛，显然信心不足。更糟糕的是，根据我的报告，他们的团队精神远非伟大。预计他们将没有阿巴多、查韦斯、卡拉佐、吉弗里和米兰达。凭借预期的阵容，客队显然是一支更强大的球队，理应成为最受欢迎的球队。他们在游戏的所有领域都有明显的优势!最大的，有时也比较聪明的博彩公司认为这场比赛或多或少是一场抛硬币的比赛，没有最受欢迎的一方，在北京时间周三晚上写这篇预告的时候，两支球队的赔率都在2.70左右。萨斯菲尔德+0.5球显然是明智的选择!

根据一家知名且受人尊敬的德国网站，东道主球队的市场价值估计在2100万欧元左右。这有点太高了。另一方面，萨斯菲尔德队的价值约为4200万英镑。这在我的专业意见中或多或少是正确的。在最近的一场比赛中，主队虽然在主场1-2不敌独立队，但表现并不差，但客队确实创造了更多的预期进球(准确地说是0.98-0.56)。主场球迷完全可以理解，他们非常沮丧，我不认为球场的气氛会太好。在此之前，他们在Estanislao准将体育场López被科隆圣达菲0-2击败。东道主确实应该赢得这场胜利，因为他们有更多的射正机会，在xG - 1.89-0.75的比赛中产生了更多的进球。来访者的状态很好。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们表现出色，击败了阿根廷两支标志性的、最富有的球队之一——河床队(River Plate)，根据博彩市场的预测，这支球队的胜率约为4.30美元。这是萨斯菲尔德在博彩市场上被低估的又一个例子。他们的射门次数(14胜9负)、射正和射偏次数都更多。此外，他们在xG中产生了0.89，而访问者只产生了0.39!多么出色的表现，尤其是在防守端。在此之前，他们客场和主场分别面对独立队，1-2输掉了比赛，但这是一场势均力敌的比赛。主队有52%的控球率，两队的得分都是1.12。