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2023-09-12
比赛分析
解读理由
Defensa Y Justicia VS Godoy Cruz Antonio
Defensa Y Justicia host Godoy Cruz for this Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional round 1 clash Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello early Tuesday morning Beijing time. However, in reality, both teams have already played two matches in this competition. We can expect a match of pretty mediocre level here between these two teams. This League is of average level by global standards. However, it is the second-best league in South America. Furthermore, this league is, similarly to many other South American leagues – for example the Brazilian Serie A - a low-scoring one on average. Here the goal expectancy is higher than on average. In my expert opinion, the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 63 %. Godoy Cruz usually pley pretty defensive, well-organized football in away games. A draw would most certainly not surprise anyone. The probability of this result is 31% and it would be enough to bring my fans and me yet another winner betting on Argentinian football with the recommended +0.5 handicap option on Godoy Cruz. The biggest, sometimes pretty sharp bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers see the hosts as clear favorites here – offering them odds of around 2.05 to take all three points. This is too clearly too low as with the expected lineups I see the visitors as marginally the stronger team! Defensa Y Justicia have not beaten Godoy Cruz in any of the last three times these two teams locked horns. There were two draws and in the summer of 2022 Godoy Cruz took a 2-1 home win.
The hosts have started Copa de la Liga Profesional with two draws. In the opening round they were somewhat lucky to get a point away from home against Lanus. It was a goalless draw but Lanus recorded many more goal attempts (22-6), shots on goal (10-1), shots off target, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. The visitors’ offense was very lame in this game lacking speed and creativity. In the second round they faced Sarmiento Junin as solid favorites according to the bookies but it was a 1-1 draw after. Junin had 54% and Lanus recorded more goal attempts (22-6), shots off target, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. Defensa Y Justicia did have one more goal attempt and also generated a little more in expected goals (xG). Their offense was far from its best level in this game too – lacking speed and passing accuracy at critical moments. They can improve, yes, but even this might not be enough to beat a dangerous opponent who have not lost any of their last three games. Indeed, the home advantage has to be given enough emphasis - consequently the hosts deserve to be the favorites here - but only pretty narrow! In their most recent game Godoy Cruz were not at their best away from home against Lanus but took a point through a 2-2 draw. They were clear underdogs in this game though – priced at over 4.00 to win on the betting market. Lanus were slightly the better team on the pitch as a whole generating 1.34 in xG – the visitors managed 1.11. Before this they took a totally deserved home win over Central Cordoba 1-0. They defended very well in this game allowing the visitors just one shot on goal! The hosts generated 1.43 in xG – the visitors recorded just 0.38. Furthermore, on the 30th of July (Argentina time) they proved that they have a lot of potential firepower as well defeating Instituto, a surprisingly good team, 4-2 at home. Defensa y Justicia have not lost a game for a quite long time but have had a lot of luck in some games. They have, after all, won just one of their most recent five games during the 90 minutes of play.
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辩护法官VS戈多伊·克鲁兹·安东尼奥
北京时间周二凌晨,阿根廷在西甲联赛第一轮对阵托马吉罗球场的比赛中,正义防守队主场迎战戈多伊克鲁兹队。然而,实际上,两支球队已经在这项比赛中打了两场比赛。我们可以预期这两支球队之间会有一场相当平庸的比赛。按照国际标准,这个联赛属于中等水平。然而,它是南美洲第二好的联赛。此外,这个联赛和许多其他南美联赛(比如巴西甲级联赛)一样,平均得分很低。这里的进球预期高于平均水平。在我看来,总进球数少于2.5个的概率是63%。戈多伊·克鲁兹在客场比赛中通常防守严密,踢得井井有条。平局肯定不会让任何人感到意外。这个结果的概率是31%,这足以让我和我的球迷在戈多伊·克鲁兹(Godoy Cruz)推荐的+0.5障碍选项下投注阿根廷足球的另一个赢家。最大的,有时是相当精明的博彩公司接受客户的最大赌注,认为东道主显然是最受欢迎的,他们提供了2.05左右的赔率来获得所有三分。这显然太低了,因为我认为客队的预期阵容更强一些!在过去的三次交锋中,两队都没有击败过戈多伊克鲁兹。两场平局,2022年夏天戈多伊·克鲁兹主场2-1获胜。
东道主以两平的成绩开始了西甲联赛。在首轮比赛中,他们在客场对阵拉努斯的比赛中得到了一分,这有点幸运。这是一场0比0的平局,但拉努斯的进球次数更多(22比6)、射正(10比1)、射偏、角球、进攻和危险进攻。在这场比赛中,客队的进攻很蹩脚,缺乏速度和创造力。在第二轮比赛中,他们面对萨米恩托·朱宁,根据博彩公司的说法,他们是最受欢迎的,但之后他们以1比1战平。朱宁占54%,拉努斯的进球次数更多(22胜6负)、射偏、角球、进攻和危险进攻。《defense Y Justicia》确实多了一次进球尝试,也产生了更多的预期进球(xG)。他们的进攻在这场比赛中也远没有达到最佳水平——在关键时刻缺乏速度和传球准确性。是的,他们可以提高,但即使这样也可能不足以击败一个过去三场比赛一场未输的危险对手。的确,主场优势必须得到足够的重视——因此东道主理应成为最受欢迎的球队——但只是相当小的优势!在他们最近的一场比赛中,戈多伊克鲁兹在客场对阵拉努斯的比赛中没有发挥出最佳状态,但他们以2比2的比分取得了一分。在这场比赛中,他们显然处于劣势——在博彩市场上,他们以超过4.00的价格获胜。拉努斯在球场上的表现稍好一些,全场攻入1.34球,客队攻入1.11球。在此之前,他们在主场1-0完胜中央科尔多瓦。他们在这场比赛中防守很好,只让客队射进一球!东道主的xG值为1.43,而访客的xG值仅为0.38。此外,在7月30日(阿根廷时间),他们证明了他们也有很多潜在的火力击败Instituto,一个令人惊讶的优秀球队,在主场4-2。Justicia已经很长时间没有输过一场比赛了,但在一些比赛中运气很好。毕竟,在最近的五场比赛中,他们在90分钟的比赛中只赢了一场。
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