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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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Even more PROFIT? $$$ 日联赛杯 福冈黄蜂VS东京FC

2023-09-10

比赛分析

日联赛杯

已完赛

星期日2023-09-10 18:00

解读理由

Avispa Fukuoka VS FC Tokyo


Avispa Fukuoka and FC Tokyo lock horns in this Japanese YBC Levain Cup quarter-final second leg clash at Best Denki Stadium Sunday evening Beijing time. Both teams play in the J1 League, the first tier of Japanese football. My fans and I have achieved excellent results betting on this league and we have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity here! Just by looking at the league table this pick might look a bit weird but most of my fans probably know by now that I never let the standings fool me! Avispa Fukuoka currently occupy the 8th place in the league table with a total of 38 points to their account. Yes, it is true that they have improved from last season but I want to highlight that at least four of their players have played clearly above their normal level so far this season. This most probably cannot go on for the rest of the season.. They have lost three of their latest five games and seem to be in decline in terms of performances on the pitch. Furthermore, let’s not forget that last season they finished only in the 14th place with just 38 points to their account. FC Tokyo, on the other hand, finished in 6th place with 49 points to their account. Avispa Fukuoka have been lucky in many games so far this season and this most probably does affect the odds here.. Indeed, their number of expected points (xPTS) is only 32.14. Taking a look at their offense it is almost impossible to understand that they have taken 38 points! Indeed, they have netted the ball just 26 times in the J1 League this season. Even the rock-bottom team, Shonan Bellmare have scored 32 goals! Yes, it is true that the hosts would have deserved a little more in terms of expected goals (xG) - 27.45 to be precise. Their attacks are often too slow and predictable. Moreover, they lack top-level individual skill as well.. Even the 27.45 is a low number, of course. The hosts' defense, on the other hand, has been surprisingly solid, there is no denying this. It has a good structure and silly individual mistakes are relatively rare. In this area of the game the visitors are not much better. Indeed, FC Tokyo have allowed 37 goals in the J1 League but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 32.89. Tokyo have potential to improve in this area of the game. The midfielders should be more active in defending.

The hosts have conceded 30 goals but their number of xGA is 35.12. However, defending well will not be enough for Avispa Fukuoka here! Indeed, FC Tokyo won the first leg 1-0 on the 6th of this month. It was a pretty uneventful, defensive battle as a whole. Tokyo were far from their best but still managed to grab a 1-0 win after a pretty balanced match. Tokyo’s more skilled individuals, however, proved their class at critical moments. I believe Tokyo will be pretty defensive here, especially in the first half.. They are expected to mainly rely on fast-counter attacks and this is something the hosts are not very good at defending against.. If Avispa Fukuoka take the lead I believe FC Tokyo still have a good chance to level the score – or win. Indeed, offensively they are much better than the hosts and have netted the ball 33 in the J1 League. They have 33 points to their account and are in 10th place. Yes, there is no denying the fact that their season has been a slight disappointment but their number of xPTS is 38.02. The bookies have reacted too heavily to lame season.. Indeed, contrary to what the betting market thinks, FC Tokyo are solid favorites here and the odds of around 2.65 – currently widely available - are too high. However, as the visitors only need a draw we will go for the safer +0.5 goals handicap option. I believe FC Tokyo will be a bit irritated with the difficult season and are very motivated to try to win this competition! These two teams, interestingly, locked horns also on the 3rd of this month and Avispa Fukuoka took a somewhat undeserved 2-1 away win. Indeed, Tokyo had 59% ball possession and recorded many more total passes, completed passes, attacks (113-83) and dangerous attacks – 63-43. FC Tokyo also generated more in xG – 1.38-1.16. This result probably affects the odds too much here.. Lastly I want to mention that according to a reliable source, Transfermarkt.com FC Tokyo are the bigger team here in terms of players’ total market value.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

福冈VS东京FC


北京时间周日晚,福冈和东京FC将在日本YBC列文杯1 / 4决赛次回合的比赛中对决。两支球队都参加了J1联赛,这是日本足球的第一梯队。我和我的球迷在这个联赛中取得了优异的成绩,我们在这里还有另一个非常有利可图的赌博机会!仅仅从联赛排名来看,这个选择可能看起来有点奇怪,但我的大多数粉丝现在可能知道,我从来没有让排名欺骗我!目前,福冈队以38分的积分排名第8位。是的,他们确实比上赛季进步了,但我想强调的是,本赛季到目前为止,他们至少有四名球员的表现明显高于正常水平。这种情况很可能不会持续到赛季结束。他们在最近的五场比赛中输了三场,在球场上的表现似乎有所下降。此外,让我们不要忘记上赛季他们仅以38分的成绩排在第14位。另一方面,东京FC以49分排名第6。本赛季到目前为止,福冈在很多比赛中都很幸运,这很可能会影响到这里的赔率。实际上,他们的期望值(xPTS)只有32.14。看看他们的进攻,几乎不可能理解他们已经拿了38分!事实上,他们本赛季在J1联赛中只有26次进球。即使是垫底的尚南贝尔梅尔队也进了32球!是的,从预期进球数(xG)来看,东道主确实应该得到更多——准确地说是27.45个。他们的攻击通常过于缓慢和可预测。此外,他们也缺乏顶级的个人技能。当然,即使是27.45也是一个很低的数字。另一方面,东道主的防守出人意料地稳固,这是不可否认的。它有一个良好的结构和愚蠢的个人错误相对较少。在这方面的比赛,客队也好不到哪里去。虽然东京FC在J1联赛中丢了37个球,但他们的期望失球数(xGA)是32.89个。东京在这方面有潜力提高。中场应该更积极地防守。

东道主已经丢了30个球,但是他们的平均进球数是35.12。然而,对于这里的福冈来说,防守好是不够的!事实上,东京FC在本月6日的首回合比赛中以1比0获胜。总的来说,这是一场相当平淡无奇的防御战。东京远未达到最佳状态,但在一场势均力敌的比赛后,他们仍设法以1-0取胜。然而,东京那些更有技巧的人在关键时刻证明了他们的水平。我相信东京在这里会非常防守,尤其是在上半场。他们主要依靠快速反击,这是东道主不擅长防御的。如果福冈领先,我相信东京FC仍然有很好的机会扳平比分,或者赢球。事实上,他们在进攻端比东道主强得多,在J1联赛中打进33球。他们有33分,排在第10位。是的,不可否认的事实是,他们的赛季有点令人失望,但他们的xPTS是38.02。博彩公司对这个糟糕的赛季反应太大了。事实上,与博彩市场的想法相反,东京FC在这里是最受欢迎的球队,目前广泛使用的2.65左右的赔率太高了。然而,由于客队只需要一场平局,我们将选择更安全的+0.5个进球障碍选项。我相信东京FC会对这个艰难的赛季感到有点恼火,并且会很有动力去赢得这场比赛!有趣的是,这两支球队也在本月3日发生了争执,福冈以2-1的比分赢得了一场不太值得的胜利。事实上,东京拥有59%的控球率,并且记录了更多的总传球、完成传球、进攻(113胜83负)和危险进攻(63胜43负)。FC Tokyo在xG - 1.38-1.16中也产生了更多。这个结果可能对这里的赔率影响太大了。最后我想提一下,根据一个可靠的消息来源,东京FC在球员总市场价值方面是更大的球队。

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