In my opinion Northampton have bigger chances to avoid loss in this game than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

Northampton have big mental advantage before this game as they have superb record at home against Oxford. Northampton didn't lost against Oxford in 8 of last 9 matches front of home crowd.

Oxford after 6 rounds in League One have 5 points more than Northampton, but their results looks better than really should. Northampton scored 5 goals so far (according to the expected goals scored model they should score 5.8). Oxford scored 9 goals (according to the expected goals scored model they should score 6.3). Both teams also on very similar level: 5.8 expected goals conceded for Northampton, 4.9 expected goals conceded for Oxford.

Both teams lost in last league match. Northampton lost 0:1 at home against Wycombe, but they played well (70% ball possession, 20 shots). For sure they wants to bounce back on good track today. In previous season Northampton looked extremely solid at home as they went unbeaten in 18 of 23 home league matches.

Oxford lost at home in last league match against Port Vale. For sure that was painful loss as they conceded goal from penalty kick in 90+9. For me is really hard to see Oxford as so big fav on the road. In previous season they failed to win in 18 of 23 away league matches.

On those circumstances I see really solid value on home side.

在我看来，北安普顿在这场比赛中避免输球的机会比博彩公司给我们的赔率要大得多。

北安普顿在这场比赛前有很大的心理优势，因为他们在主场对阵牛津的比赛中有着出色的战绩。北安普顿在过去的9场主场比赛中有8场没有输给牛津。

牛津在英甲6轮之后比北安普顿多5分，但他们的成绩看起来比实际情况要好。北安普顿目前进了5球(根据预期进球模型，他们应该进5.8球)。牛津队进了9个球(根据预期进球得分模型，他们应该得6.3分)。两支球队的预期失球也非常相似:北安普顿预期失球5.8个，牛津预期失球4.9个。

两队在上次联赛中都输了。北安普顿在主场0:1输给了威科姆，但他们踢得很好(70%的控球率，20次射门)。当然，他们今天想要回到正轨。在上个赛季，北安普顿在主场的表现非常稳定，他们在23场主场比赛中有18场保持不败。

牛津大学在上一场联赛中主场输给了维尔港。可以肯定的是，这是一个痛苦的失败，因为他们在90+9的比赛中点球失球。对我来说，很难看到牛津大学在路上如此受欢迎。在上个赛季，他们在23场客场比赛中有18场未能获胜。

在这种情况下，我认为主队确实很有价值。