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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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5/5 latest WON in this league! $$$

2023-08-31

比赛分析

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欧协联

已完赛

星期五2023-09-01 00:00

解读理由

Bodo Glimt VS Sepsi OSK Sfantul Gheorghe


Bodo/Glimt welcome Sepsi for this UEFA Conference League Qualification final round second leg battle Aspmyra Stadion early Friday morning Beijing time. The hosts are a Norwegian team and the visitors come from Romania. This is the third-highest of UEFA's club competitions. Neither team are among the elite clubs in Europe so I expect both teams to be extremely motivated here. There is quite a lot of prize money available in this competition! I – along with many other professional football bettors, was a little unsure if this competition would really interest even the middle-sized clubs in Europe.. However, it seems that most clubs really do want to do well in this competition! Even the Roma players and the legendary coach, Jose Mourinho were very delighted winning the Conference League last year. Last season the winners were West Ham and their players and fans, too, were very happy being able to lift a trophy! My fans and I have done very well betting on this competition both long-term and recently – we have won five picks in a row. We have yet another very good betting opportunity here.There is a significant difference in class between the two teams. The hosts have an edge in all areas of the game! They are a much better organized team as a whole and also have a better coach. Their edge over Sepsi is bigger in terms of defensive quality than offensive quality. Indeed, Sepsi's defense is not very well-structured.. Bodo can surely find space between the Sepsi players to create a big number of good scoring chances.. The home advantage is, typically for international club games, substantial here. I would say that it is even a little bigger than on average here. Indeed, the match is played on artificial turf in northern Norway. The visitors usually play on natural grass.. Bodo/Glimt have the best fans in Norway and offer a gigantic boost to the hosts. Moreover, they have beaten big teams at Aspmyra Stadion in the past. Last season they defeated a big Croatian team, Dinamo Zagreb, 1-0, in an UEFA Champions League qualification first leg battle and fully deserved the win. Indeed, they recorded 16 goal attempts – Dinamo managed 10. Some two years ago Bodo/Glimt beat Jose Mourinho's AS Roma 6-1 at this stadium. Roma, of course, are a very big club but also Dinamo Zagreb's players have an estimated market value of around 75 million according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com. The Bodo/Glimt squad has a market value of around 31 million but this is, in my expert opinion, too low. I would set the number at around 37-38 million. The visitors' players have a total market value of about 16 million – this is too high – at least three players are overvalued. 12-13 million would be a more realistic number..

Bodo/Glimt are the best team in Norway despite not winning the Elitserien last season. They finished in 2nd place behind Molde who had an amazing ”flow” in the second part of the season winning a stunning number of games. Bodo/Glimt took a total of 60 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) was 67.11. At the moment they top the league table with 44 points (xPTS 47.98) and I expect them to take the championship! The Elitserien is a better league than the Romanian Liga 1. as a whole. I know Liga 1. very well and we have achieved strong results betting on it! Sepsi are not a top team in Romania, not even close! They finished in 6th place in the Championship Group last season with only 29 points. Farul Constanța, the champions, took 53 points! The Norwegians were the better team in Romania last week despite the 2-2 draw. They had a whopping 66% ball possession and also recorded many more attacks (128-62) as well as dangerous attacks – 79-42. They were not only the better-organized team but also have more individual skill! They are big favorites here and have a great chance (65%) of winning by a margin of at least two goals.  We will go for the Bodo/Glimt -1.5 goals handicap here. Odds of around 1.75 are widely available at the time of writing this analysis Thursday afternoon Beijing time. The Norwegians are usually very aggressive at home right from the kickoff and I expect them to score a quick goal here. They probably will not stop pushing before taking a ”safe” lead by a margin of two goals..




该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

Bodo Glimt VS Sepsi OSK Sfantul georgihe


北京时间周五凌晨,博多和格里姆特欢迎塞普西参加欧足联资格赛最后一轮第二回合的比赛。东道主是挪威队,客队来自罗马尼亚。这是欧足联第三高的俱乐部比赛。这两支球队都不是欧洲的精英俱乐部,所以我希望这两支球队在这里都非常有动力。在这场比赛中有相当多的奖金!我和许多其他职业足球投注者一样,有点不确定这场比赛是否真的会引起欧洲中型俱乐部的兴趣。然而,似乎大多数俱乐部真的想在这项比赛中取得好成绩!就连罗马球员和传奇教练穆里尼奥都对去年赢得联盟联赛冠军感到非常高兴。上赛季的冠军是西汉姆联,他们的球员和球迷也很高兴能够举起奖杯!我和我的粉丝们在这项赛事的长期和最近的投注中都做得很好——我们已经连续赢得了五次选秀权。我们还有另一个很好的下注机会。这两个队的阶级差别很大。东道主在比赛的各个方面都有优势!他们是一支更有组织的球队,也有更好的教练。他们对Sepsi的优势在于防守质量大于进攻质量。的确,赛普西的防守结构不太好。博多肯定能在塞普西球员之间找到空位,创造出大量的进球机会。对于国际俱乐部比赛来说,主场优势非常明显。我想说,它甚至比平均水平还要大一点。事实上,这场比赛是在挪威北部的人造草坪上进行的。游客们通常在天然草地上玩耍。Bodo/Glimt拥有挪威最好的球迷,为东道主提供了巨大的推动力。此外,他们过去曾在阿斯迈拉球场击败过强队。上个赛季,他们在欧冠资格赛首回合比赛中以1-0击败克罗地亚劲旅萨格勒布迪纳摩,完全配得上这场胜利。事实上,他们有16次射门,迪纳摩有10次。大约两年前,博多/格里姆特在这个球场6-1击败了穆里尼奥的罗马。当然,罗马是一家非常大的俱乐部,但据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com估计,萨格勒布迪纳摩球员的市场价值约为7500万欧元。Bodo/Glimt阵容的市场价值约为3100万美元,但以我的专业观点来看,这个数字太低了。我估计这个数字在3700万到3800万之间。客队球员的总市值约为1600万英镑——这个数字太高了——至少有三名球员被高估了。1200万到1300万是更现实的数字。

Bodo/Glimt是挪威最好的队伍,尽管上赛季没有赢得精英赛。他们排在莫尔德之后,排名第二,莫尔德在赛季后半段表现出色,赢得了惊人的比赛。Bodo/Glimt共获得60分,但他们的期望分数(xPTS)为67.11分。目前他们以44分(47.98分)领跑积分榜,我希望他们能拿到冠军!精英联赛比罗马尼亚甲级联赛更好。作为一个整体。我知道西甲联赛。很好,我们已经取得了强大的结果押注它!赛普西在罗马尼亚不是顶级球队,差得远!上赛季他们仅以29分的成绩排在英冠组第6名。法鲁尔Constanța,冠军,拿了53分!挪威人上周在罗马尼亚的比赛中表现得更好,尽管他们2比2战平。他们拥有高达66%的控球率,也记录了更多的进攻(128胜62负)以及79胜42负的危险进攻。他们不仅是一支组织性更好的球队,而且个人能力也更强!他们是这里的大热门,并且有很大的机会(65%)以至少两个进球的优势获胜。在这里,我们将采用Bodo/Glimt -1.5球的障碍。在北京时间周四下午撰写本文时,1.75左右的赔率普遍存在。挪威人从一开始在主场就非常有侵略性,我希望他们能在这里快速进球。在以两球的优势取得“安全”领先之前,他们可能不会停止进攻。


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