Saint Gilloise VS Lugano

Royale Union SG host Lugano for this UEFA Europa League Qualification final round first leg battle at Lotto Park in Anderlecht early Friday morning Beijing time. The hosts are a Belgian team and the visitors come from Switzerland. This is the second-highest of UEFA's club competitions. Neither team are among the elite clubs in Europe so I expect both teams to be very motivated here. As a whole the Belgian Jupiler Pro League is of much higher level than the Swiss Super League.Yesm, there are Young Boys who have some great players and they even made it to the UEFA Champions League Group stage two years ago but the level drops significantly behind them! In general, Swiss teams are very often overvalued on the betting market. The home advantage in UEFA's competitions, between clubs from two different countries, is almost always very big, even bigger than the bookies and many recreational bettors seem to realize.. This is true here as well! With the expected lineups – based on my sophisticated, inde-depth - strongly data-based analysis, the hosts have a 70% chance of winning The biggest, sometimes somewhat sharp bookies with the biggest stake limits offer odds of around 1.55 on the hosts to win - at the time of writing this analysis Thursday evening Beijing time. However, I would not be at all surprised to see the odds drop before kickoff as sharp money is expected to pile up on the hosts.. Royale Union SG have started the Jupiler Pro League winning three of the four matches. Their score difference is 9:5 and they currently occupy the 3rd place in the standings.

Let's also remember that the hosts are the significantly bigger club than Lugano in terms of players total market value according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com. The hosts' squad has an estimated total market value of around 32 million euros. This is a little too low in my expert opinion! I would say that 41-42 million is the more accurate number. The Lugano players, on the other hand, have a total market value of only 23 million which is still too high! I would set the number at around 16 million. Four of their players are overvalued! Lugano have played pretty well in the Super League so far winning three of four games They have netted the ball 10 times but their number of expected goals (xG) is 7.12 . In their most recent game they totally dominated a very small amateur team, Gunzwill, in a Swiss Cup match winning 7-0 away from home. However, I do not give this match much emphasis. Before this they crushed Yverdon 6-1 at home as massive favorites according to the bookies. Yes, they deserved to win but the final score is still very misleading and probably affects the odds too much here. Yverdon did record eight goal attempts and also had five shots on goal. Lugano managed ”only” eight. Before this a mediocre team, Zurich, crushed Lugano 3-0. Royale Union SG have won seven of their latest 10 games but very weirdly lost to Mechelen 0-4 (!) away from home in their latest game. Even so, they had 54% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts, shots off goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks! A very unjustified result to say the least.. Perhaps their focus was already in this big game against Lugano.

圣吉卢瓦兹VS卢加诺

北京时间周五凌晨，欧联杯资格赛决赛首回合将在安德莱赫特洛托公园进行，皇家联盟主场迎战卢加诺。东道主是比利时队，客队来自瑞士。这是欧足联俱乐部比赛中第二高的成绩。这两支球队都不是欧洲的精英俱乐部，所以我希望这两支球队在这里都很有动力。总的来说，比利时Jupiler职业联赛的水平要比瑞士超级联赛高得多。是的，有一些年轻的男孩有一些伟大的球员，他们甚至在两年前进入了欧洲冠军联赛小组赛，但水平明显落后于他们!总的来说，瑞士队在博彩市场上经常被高估。在欧足联的比赛中，来自两个不同国家的俱乐部之间的主场优势几乎总是非常大，甚至比博彩公司和许多娱乐投注者似乎意识到的还要大。这里也是如此!在北京时间周四晚上撰写这篇分析时，根据我老练、深入、强有力的基于数据的分析，根据预期的阵容，东道主获胜的几率为70%。赌注上限最高、有时有点精明的博彩公司对东道主获胜的赔率在1.55左右。然而，如果在开球前看到赔率下降，我一点也不会感到惊讶，因为预计会有大量资金涌向东道主。皇家联盟SG已经开始了木星职业联赛的四场比赛中的三场胜利。他们的比分差距是9:5，目前在积分榜上排名第三。

让我们也记住，根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，从球员总市值来看，东道主比卢加诺大得多。据估计，东道主球队的总市值约为3200万欧元。在我看来，这有点太低了!我认为4100万到4200万是更准确的数字。另一方面，卢加诺球员的总市值只有2300万欧元，这仍然太高了!我估计这个数字在1600万左右。他们的四名球员被高估了!卢加诺目前在中超联赛中表现不错，4场比赛赢了3场，他们有10次进球，但他们的预期进球(xG)是7.12。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在瑞士杯客场7-0战胜了一支非常小的业余球队Gunzwill。然而，我并没有给予这场比赛太多的重视。在此之前，他们在主场6-1击败了伊弗登，根据博彩公司的说法，他们是最大的热门。是的，他们理应获胜，但最终比分仍然非常具有误导性，可能会对赔率产生太大影响。埃弗登有8次射门，还有5次射正。卢加诺“只”做到了8次。在此之前，一支平庸的球队苏黎世以3-0击败卢加诺。皇家联盟SG在最近的10场比赛中赢了7场，但在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场0-4输给了梅赫伦。即便如此，他们有54%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数、射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数!退一步说，这是一个非常不合理的结果。也许他们的注意力已经集中在对卢加诺的重要比赛上了。