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Who'll qualify for 1/4 finals? 解放者杯 玻利瓦尔VS巴西国际

2023-08-22

比赛分析

解放者杯

已完赛

星期三2023-08-23 06:00

解读理由

First leg of Libertadores ¼ finals.

Bolivar is clearly the favorite here due to their home advantage. As you may know, they play in high altitude (3637 meters) where they are very strong and have a huge advantage against other teams from LatAm.

Bolivar has been the surprise of the Libertadores. Had a difficult group stage with Palmeiras, where they managed to qualify as second thanks to their home performance (3/3 wins, including Palmeiras who is one of the main title contenders). Then in ⅛ finals they also managed to beat Paranaense and now are the only team from Bolivia alive in a CONMEBOL tournament this year. And surprise: against Paranaense, they won 3:1 at home too.

In their local league they are third, but the Spanish coach Beñat San Jose is playing with reserves there, as the team is totally focused on the Libertadores. They have quality, with huge home support, so I'm sure that the home team will take advantage until the second game in Brazil.

In the previous rounds they already beat and outplayed two Brazilian teams (Paranaense and Palmeiras), both qualified above Internacional (14th). Palmeiras is fighting for the title (2nd) and drew 0:0 in their away game against International (although deserved to win as had more chances), whilst Paranaense (6th) won 0:2 in May. Both teams suffered a lot in the altitude against Bolivar, surely Internacional will do the same.

International’s season is terrible so far. They are just three points above the relegation zone in the Brazilian Serie A. They were very lucky against River in the ⅛ finals, where they managed to win in penalties (which was more River’s fault due to their terrible performance), but that victory was the only one in their last 10 official games (they have two defeats in a row now).

Their defense is terrible, with many mistakes and goals conceded. They have conceded at least one goal in their last 6 games, and are lacking a lot of confidence there.

In the group stage indeed first, but had a pretty easy group with Metropolitanos (one of the worst teams in the tournament) and three draws against rivals Nacional and Independiente Medellin, enough to end 2 points above third.

Seeing Bolivar’s home performance, it’s clear that they are favorites here. They have won 12 games in a row at home, and all teams use to struggle a lot when they had to play in La Paz for Libertadores. Strong teams from Brazil already did it this season, suffering defeats for 3:1 both (Palmeiras and Paranaense). If Bolivar managed to beat and outplay such strong teams, should be able to do it against a weaker side who is also in worse form.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

解放者1 / 4决赛第一回合。

由于他们的主场优势,玻利瓦尔显然是最受欢迎的球队。你可能知道,他们在高海拔(3637米)比赛,在那里他们非常强大,对其他来自拉丁美洲的球队有巨大的优势。

玻利瓦尔一直是解放者的惊喜。与帕尔梅拉斯的小组赛非常艰难,他们凭借主场的表现(3胜3负,包括帕尔梅拉斯是主要的冠军争夺者之一)以第二名出线。然后在决赛中,他们也成功击败了巴拉南斯队,现在他们是今年美洲足球锦标赛中唯一一支幸存下来的玻利维亚球队。令人惊讶的是,他们在主场也以3:1获胜。

在当地联赛中,他们排名第三,但西班牙教练Beñat圣何塞在那里使用预备队,因为球队完全专注于解放者队。他们有实力,有巨大的主场支持,所以我相信主队在巴西的第二场比赛之前都会占据优势。

在之前的几轮比赛中,他们已经击败了两支巴西球队(巴拉那恩斯和帕尔梅拉斯),这两支球队都在国际队(第14名)之前晋级。帕尔梅拉斯正在为冠军而战(排名第二),他们在客场与国际队的比赛中以0:0战平(尽管他们应该赢得更多的机会),而巴拉那恩斯(排名第六)在5月份以0:2取胜。两支球队在对阵玻利瓦尔的比赛中都吃了不少苦头,当然国际也会这样。

到目前为止,国际队的赛季很糟糕。在巴西甲级联赛中,他们只比降级区高出3分。在决赛中对阵河床队,他们非常幸运,在点球大战中取得了胜利(这更多是河床队的失误,因为他们的糟糕表现),但那场胜利是他们最近10场正式比赛中唯一的一场胜利(他们现在已经连续两场失利)。

他们的防守很糟糕,有很多失误和失球。在最近的6场比赛中,他们至少丢了一个球,他们缺乏信心。

在小组赛中确实排名第一,但与大都会队(比赛中表现最差的球队之一)的小组赛相当轻松,并与对手国家队和独立麦德林队三次平局,足以以2分的优势结束第三名。

看看玻利瓦尔在主场的表现,很明显他们在这里是最受欢迎的。他们已经在主场取得了12连胜,所有球队在为解放者队在拉巴斯比赛时都很挣扎。来自巴西的强队本赛季已经做到了这一点,但两支球队(帕尔梅拉斯和帕拉纳塞)都以3:1惨败。如果玻利瓦尔能够击败并击败这些强队,那么他们也应该能够击败状态更差的弱队。

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