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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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9/10 latest picks WON! $$$ 英超 热刺VS曼联

2023-08-19

比赛分析

主队热刺LOGO

热刺

英超

已完赛

星期日2023-08-20 00:30

客队曼联LOGO

曼联

解读理由

Tottenham vs Manchester United


Tottenham and Manchester United lock horns in this English Premier League round 2 clash at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London early Sunday morning Beijing time. This is the best league in the world – most importantly we have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity here to increase the winning streak of 9/10! Football fans and us profit-hungry, serious football bettors can expect a match of good level between these two big teams! However, neither team are, of course, among the top-2 teams in the Premier League. The best teams are Manchester City - followed by Arsenal who fought hard for the championship last season despite fading away in the last rounds. Behind these two teams even the best football journalists, professional bettors and the betting market disagree on which team are third, fourth and fifth best.. In the preseason analysis I had Manchester United in 3rd place in the power rating but their performance in the first round indicated that at the moment they are perhaps worse than that.. Indeed, the differences between Manchester United, Newcastle and Liverpool are not expected to be big this season. Behind these teams there are Chelsea, Tottenham, Aston Villa and Brighton and these four teams are probably much less worse to the three teams mentioned above. Furthermore, the transfer window is still open and even important players come and go almost daily in the Premier League..

Manchester United improved their game last season under Erik ten Hag – the Dutch manager took over at Manchester United before the last season started. However, they are still a lot behind the other team from Manchester and do have some weaknesses in the game.. Manchester United are one of the most popular teams, perhaps even the most popular, globally and this affects the odds on the betting market as many football fans love to bet on their favorite team. Most bookies aim at avoiding big risks – a guaranteed profit - no matter what the result of a game is - is usually the optimal position for them. Consequently, the odds on Manchester United are often way too low – lower than even the bookies actually think they should be in terms of actual probability estimation the bookies have.. Manchester United were very strong at home last season and we can expect something similar this season as well.. Opposing them at Old Trafford will most probably not be a great idea in most games. However, on the road they were often somewhat disappointing and do not seem to play with the same energy and confidence as in front of their enthusiastic fans. Tottenham do not have the very best fans by the Premier League fans but are still a massive boost for the team – especially early season when there is still all the play for! Moreover, the home advantage is often a bit higher than on average in the first home game of the season..

There is no doubt about the fact that Manchester United are the better team here by pure class but the difference in class between the two teams is surely much smaller than the bookies estimate..The visitors finished in third place last season with 75 points to their account. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) was just 65.12! This is a big difference and surely affects the odds here! ManU were not impressive at all in the first round despite beating Wolves at home 1-0 as massive favorites - priced below 1.30 to win. They recorded just marginally more than Wolves in expected goals (xG) – 1.87-1.85. Moreover, the visitors even recorded more shots on and off goal as well as goal attempts – 23-15. The visitors were denied a penalty late into the match. It was a very questionable decision from the referee.. Tottenham played a bad and turbulent last season and finished in 8th place after a bad ending to the season.. They have the potential to do better this season despite losing Harry Kane to Bayern Munich! They have a new manager who should bring more offensive quality, energy and a positive atmosphere into the team that still has a lot of quality players like Son – a dangerous and fast guy from South Korea. He can score 20+ goals this season.  It seems that losing Kane has been given too much emphasis by the bookies which has led to Tottenham being undervalued here.. With the substantial home advantage they deserve to be marginal favorites here but the bookies see the visitors as solid favorites! When the teams last played in this stadium it was a 2-2 draw in the spring but Tottenham recorded more in xG 2.54-2.12. Tottenham looked surprisingly energized on the pitch and played an entertaining match against Brentford away from home in the opening round. It was a somewhat balanced clash as a whole and a 2-2 draw. Tottenham did, however, have about 70% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts, attacks and dangerous attacks.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

热刺vs曼联


北京时间周日凌晨,英超第二轮热刺队将在伦敦热刺主场迎战曼联。这是世界上最好的联赛——最重要的是,我们还有一个非常有利可图的投注机会,可以增加9/10的连胜纪录!足球迷和我们这些渴望利润的严肃的足球投注者可以期待这两支强队之间的一场好比赛!当然,这两支球队都不在英超前两名之列。最好的球队是曼城,紧随其后的是阿森纳,他们上赛季为冠军而战,尽管在最后几轮被淘汰。在这两支球队背后,即使是最好的足球记者、职业投注者和博彩市场也不同意哪支球队是第三、第四和第五。在季前赛的分析中,我把曼联排在第三位,但他们在第一轮的表现表明,目前他们可能比这更糟糕。事实上,本赛季曼联、纽卡斯尔和利物浦之间的差距预计不会太大。在这些球队后面还有切尔西、热刺、阿斯顿维拉和布莱顿,这四支球队可能比上面提到的三支球队差得多。此外,转会窗口仍然是开放的,甚至重要的球员在英超几乎每天都来来去去。

上个赛季,曼联在荷兰主帅埃里克-滕-黑格的带领下取得了很大的进步。然而,他们仍然落后于另一支来自曼彻斯特的球队,并且在比赛中确实有一些弱点。曼联是全球最受欢迎的球队之一,甚至可能是最受欢迎的球队之一,这影响了博彩市场的赔率,因为许多球迷喜欢为他们最喜欢的球队下注。大多数博彩公司的目标是避免大风险——无论比赛结果如何,保证利润通常是他们的最佳选择。因此,曼联的赔率往往太低了——甚至比博彩公司实际估计的概率还要低……曼联上赛季在主场非常强大,我们可以期待本赛季也会有类似的表现。在大多数比赛中,在老特拉福德对抗他们可能不是一个好主意。然而,在客场,他们经常有些令人失望,似乎不像在热情的球迷面前那样充满活力和信心。从英超球迷的角度来看,托特纳姆热刺并没有最好的球迷,但对球队来说仍然是一个巨大的推动力——尤其是在赛季初期,还有很多比赛要做!此外,在赛季的第一场主场比赛中,主场优势往往比平均水平高一点。

毫无疑问,曼联是一支实力更强的球队,但两队之间的实力差距肯定比博彩公司估计的要小得多。客队上赛季以75分排名第三。然而,他们的期望值(xPTS)只有65.12!这是一个很大的差异,肯定会影响到这里的赔率!尽管在主场1-0击败狼队是大热门,但马努在第一轮的表现一点也不令人印象深刻——胜率低于1.30。他们的预期进球数(xG)仅略高于狼队——1.87比1.85。此外,客队的射门次数和射门次数也更多——23比15。客队在比赛最后阶段的点球被判无效。这是裁判做出的一个非常有问题的判罚。托特纳姆热刺上个赛季踢得糟糕而动荡,在一个糟糕的赛季结束后以第8名结束。尽管哈里·凯恩转会拜仁,他们本赛季仍有潜力做得更好!他们有了一个新的教练,他应该给球队带来更多的进攻质量,能量和积极的氛围,球队仍然有很多像孙兴慜这样的优秀球员——一个来自韩国的危险和快速的家伙。本赛季他能进20多个球。似乎失去凯恩被博彩公司过分强调了,这导致热刺被低估了。由于主场的巨大优势,他们理应在这里被边缘化,但博彩公司认为客队是最受欢迎的!两队上一次在这个球场比赛是在春天,双方战成2比2,但热刺的战绩是2.54比2.12。托特纳姆热刺在球场上的表现令人惊讶地充满活力,并在首轮客场与布伦特福德进行了一场精彩的比赛。总的来说,这是一场平衡的比赛,双方以2比2战平。托坦

然而,汉姆的控球率约为70%,进球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数也更多。

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