Honka vs AC Oulu

Honka and AC Oulu lock horns in this Finnish Veikkausliiga clash at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto, Espoo, late Sunday evening Beijing time. We have yet another interesting betting opportunity here betting on Finnish football - yesterday we easily won both picks – one on Ykkönen, second tier and the other one was HJK +0.5 goals - a free pick and HJK won 2-1! This is the first tier of my home country's football and I will be watching this game live at the ”stadium”. In fact, it is not even an actual football stadium and has a low capacity. Honka have a small and loud group of mainly young fans but the atmosphere in Honka's matches is often not very great. The home advantage in Veikkausliiga is, on average, much lower than in many big European leagues. Honka are having a disappointing season so far. Last season they finished in 3rd place but have, as I expected in my in-depth preseason analysis, been worse this season. They sold their key striker, Agon Sadiku to Norway for 600 000 euros, right before the season started and have not been able to replace him. They lost some other key players as well.. The player they tried to replace Sadiku with, Juan Alegria, has left the team and has been replaced by Michael Lopez who scored a lot of goals for AC Oulu last season. Honka have also acquired defenders Jesse Nikki and ex-Finnish national team player Juhani Ojala. It seems that the betting market gives these new players too much emphasis. I believe it will take time before they can be of that much help for Honka.. I want to mention that Lopez is an overrated guy in my expert opinion.  AC Oulu have lost their star Otso Liimatta who was sold to Portuguese Famalicao. This hurts them a lot but AC Oulu have many talented players left and I would not over-react to this news that has raised a lot of media attention here in Finland.

Honka do have potential for improvement but their offense has been incredibly lame so far. It has a decent structure but lacks speed and creativity. They have scored just 13 goals in Veikkausliiga so far! This is the lowest number in this league. Even Haka, the rock-bottom team, have scored 18 goals. Honka's number of expected goals (xG) is higher though. Honka have defended well and have allowed just 14 goals in this league. With the expected lineups they deserve to be the favorites here but the current odds of around1.85 offered by the biggest bookies who accept the biggest bets are much too low! Honka have an only 43% chance to take all three points here. AC Oulu with the +0.5 goals handicap option is the smart bet here! Indeed, Honka have won just one of their latest five games. In their most recent game they were, once again, very weak offensive and failed to record any shots on goal at home against Tobol, a team from Kazakhstan. It was an UEFA Conference League qualification 2nd leg. Honka were narrow favorites according to the bookies in this game. I expect a pretty defensive game here and the goal expectancy is lower than the bookies think.. The probability of under 2.5 goals to be scored is 60%. A draw would certainly not surprise anyone. In the first leg Tobol, not even a very big club, dominated Honka with 59% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (15-1), shots on goal (10-1), corner kicks (12-2), attacks and dangerous attacks 101-35. It was clear before and after the game that Honka were overrated by the bookies – once again! Before these games they lost to SJK away from home and only recorded one shot on target! SJK did deserve the win.

 AC Oulu have been very positive this season and are in 4th place with 30 points to their account. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is smaller though. They have been awesome offensively and have scored 28 goals. Losing Liimatta hurts their offense a lot though and I expect them to be more defensive than before in this game. Their defense has some vulnerabilities and they have allowed 24 goals in Veikkausliiga. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is only 19.12. Even so, Honka have a clear edge in this area of the game.. AC Oulu have a very talented coach and are high in confidence after winning six of their latest seven games and have lost just once in their most recent eight matches! The only recent loss they suffered was some three weeks ago in Vaasa against the hottest team in Veikkausliiga, VPS, who have won six games in a row. AC Oulu lost 0.3 but the final score is misleading. Yes, VPS were the better team but the visitors, too, had their chances and both teams recorded 79 attacks.

Honka vs AC Oulu

北京时间周日晚，在埃斯波的Tapiolan Urheilupuisto, Honka和AC Oulu在芬兰队的比赛中发生了冲突。我们还有另一个有趣的投注机会在这里投注芬兰足球-昨天我们轻松赢得了两个选秀权-一个是Ykkönen，第二级，另一个是hkk +0.5球-一个自由选秀权和hkk赢了2-1!这是我祖国足球的第一梯队，我将在“体育场”现场观看这场比赛。事实上，它甚至不是一个真正的足球场，而且容量很低。宏卡有一个小而响亮的群体，主要是年轻的球迷，但宏卡的比赛气氛往往不是很好。维克考斯利加的主场优势，平均来说，比许多欧洲大联赛都要低得多。到目前为止，宏卡的赛季令人失望。上赛季他们排在第三，但正如我在季前赛的深入分析中所预料的那样，本赛季他们的表现更差了。他们在赛季开始前以60万欧元的价格将他们的关键前锋阿贡·萨迪库卖给了挪威，但一直没有人能取代他。他们也失去了其他一些关键球员。他们试图用胡安·阿莱格里亚取代萨迪库的球员已经离开了球队，取而代之的是迈克尔·洛佩斯，他上赛季在AC奥卢打进了很多球。洪卡还引进了后卫杰西·尼基和前芬兰国家队球员尤哈尼·奥哈拉。博彩市场似乎给了这些新玩家太多的重视。我相信他们对印度的帮助还需要一段时间。我想说的是，在我的专业意见中，洛佩兹被高估了。AC奥卢失去了他们的球星利马塔，他被卖给了葡萄牙的法玛利考。这对他们伤害很大，但AC奥卢还有很多有天赋的球员，我不会对这个引起芬兰媒体关注的消息反应过度。

红卡确实有提升的潜力，但是他们的进攻到目前为止已经非常差劲了。它有一个不错的结构，但缺乏速度和创造力。到目前为止，他们在维克考斯利甲只进了13球!这是联盟中最低的数字。就连排名垫底的哈卡队也进了18个球。然而，Honka的预期进球数(xG)更高。洪卡防守很好，在联赛中只丢了14个球。根据预期的阵容，他们应该是最受欢迎的，但是目前接受最大赌注的最大博彩公司提供的1.85左右的赔率太低了!宏卡只有43%的机会在这里拿到全部三分。AC奥卢的+0.5个进球障碍选项是明智的选择!事实上，红卡在最近的五场比赛中只赢了一场。在最近的一场比赛中，他们的进攻再次非常薄弱，在主场对阵哈萨克斯坦的托博尔队时，他们没有任何射门。这是欧足联联赛资格赛的第二回合。在这场比赛中，根据博彩公司的说法，红卡队的胜算很小。我预计这将是一场非常防守的比赛，进球预期比博彩公司认为的要低。进球少于2.5球的概率是60%。平局当然不会让任何人感到惊讶。在第一回合，托博尔，甚至不是一个非常大的俱乐部，以59%的控球率统治了洪卡，并记录了更多的进球(15-1)，射门(10-1)，角球(12-2)，攻击和危险攻击(101-35)。很明显，在比赛前后，洪卡被博彩公司高估了——再一次!在这些比赛之前，他们客场输给了SJK，而且只射正了一次!SJK确实值得赢得这场胜利。

AC奥卢本赛季表现非常积极，目前以30分排名第四。不过，它们的期望值(xPTS)要小一些。他们的进攻太棒了，已经进了28个球。失去利马塔对他们的进攻造成了很大的伤害，我希望他们在这场比赛中比以前更注重防守。他们的防守有一些漏洞，他们在维克考斯利加丢了24球。然而，他们的预期进球数(xGA)只有19.12个。即便如此，Honka在这方面还是有明显的优势。AC奥卢有一个非常有天赋的教练，他们在最近的7场比赛中赢了6场，并且在最近的8场比赛中只输了一场。他们最近唯一的一场失利是大约三周前在瓦萨对阵维考斯利加最热门的球队VPS，他们已经取得了六连胜。AC奥卢输了0.3，但最终的比分是误导性的。是的，VPS是一支更好的球队，但客队也有机会，两队都有79次进攻。