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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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The WINNING continues? $$$ 日乙 仙台七夕VS藤枝MYFC

2023-07-29

比赛分析

日乙

已完赛

星期六2023-07-29 18:00

解读理由

Vegalta Sendai VS Fujieda MYFC


Vegalta Sendai and Fujiedia lock horns in this Japanese J2 League round 28 battle at Yurtec Stadium Sendai Saturday evening Beijing time. This league is of quite low-level by international standards. Even the biggest bookmakers seem to make quite a lot of mistakes with their odds in J2 League – maybe because they put more resources on the big leagues that are played in the summer – such as the Brazilian Serie, Argentinian Ligo Pro A and the MLS where even the legendary Leo Messi dominates now – with Inter Miami! The difference compared to the J1 League, the first tier, is rather big. Football fans and us profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of average level by J2 League standards between these two teams. Vegalta Sendai are having an awful season in the J2 League so far and currently occupy the 15th place in this league with a total of 22 clubs. They have grabbed just 32 points so far but, rather surprisingly, their number of expected points (xPTS) is even a bit lower.. Yes, by pure class they should be much better than the standings reflect but nothing seems to really work for them this season.. In my power rating that reflects the teams pure class they are currently in 14th place. I have significantly lowered their power rating from my in-depth preseason analysis.. The visitors, on the other hand, are in the 11th place in this ranking. The hosts do have potential for an improvement in all areas of the game but it seems that the bootmakers give this factor considerably too much emphasis which has, once again, led to them being clearly overvalued here! Indeed, the biggest, often quite smart bookmakers with the biggest stake limits see the hosts as solid favorites here offering them odds of around 2.15 to send to visitors home empty-handed. This is way too low! In fact, I see the match as a coin-toss - a 50-50% game without an actual favorite. This means that with the current odds – unless new crucial absentees are announced after writing this preview Friday evening Beijing time – the obvious bet here is Fujieda +0.5 goals handicap! The bookies see this match as atypically high-scoring one by this league's standards but I slightly disagree. Based on my strong data-based expert analysis the probability of under 2.5 to be scored here is 43%. I believe a draw would not be a disappointment for either team and this result would be enough to bring my fans and me yet another winner betting on Japanese football. I have also previewed several other games in this league for Saturday.

Despite their class and potential, Vegalta Sendai have been in such poor form for a long time that it is simply impossible to see them as favorites here! I also do not trust their coach in terms of tactical skills or as a leader to motivate the players and boost their confidence. They have not won any of their latest nine games and are clearly low in confidence.. According to my sources the team spirit is also not great at all at the moment. In their most recent game they were completely out of balance as a team and lost to Verdy 3-4 at home. Especially their defense was ” a mess”. The visitors created more shots on goal and scoring attempts and deserved the win despite Vegalta Sendai being able to put some pressure on their defense when the score was 2-4 in the second half. Indeed, Verdy became too passive but the hosts did not really impress me even in the second-half.. They have allowed 17 goals in their latest five games but of course should be able to defend better.. The visitors cannot be proud of their defending this season as they have allowed 48 goals in the J2 League but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is still ”only” 41.23. They can improve a lot in this area but are unlikely to fully get rid of silly individual mistakes. Their coach has said that one of the key things at the moment is, indeed, to create a better defensive structure.. Fujiedia are in the 10th place with 36 points and this newly promoted team have been a very positive surprise this season! The bookies should respect them much more! Offensively they have been clearly better than the hosts this season netting the ball a respectable 40 times in this league. This is more than Verdy, currently in 3rd place with 48 points. They, too, have not been in too great form lately but have at least taken many more points than the hosts in their latest 10 games. They were mediocre in their most recent game – it was a 1-1 draw against Kanazawa after a somewhat balanced clash.. Before this they lost to a strong team, Iwata (2nd place with 48 points), 1-4 away from home as huge underdogs, priced around 6.00 to win by the bookies. Yes, Iwata deserved to win but the final score is still very misleading. Fujieda had 53% ball possession and even recorded more total passes, completed passes, attacks (82-59) as well as dangerous attacks. The created 11 goal attempts – Iwata managed 15.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

仙台VS藤田MYFC


北京时间周六晚,日本J2联赛第28轮比赛将在仙台宇特体育场举行。按照国际标准,这个联赛是相当低水平的。即使是最大的博彩公司在J2联赛的赔率上似乎也犯了很多错误——也许是因为他们把更多的资源放在了夏天举行的大型联赛上——比如巴西甲级联赛、阿根廷甲级联赛和美国职业足球大联盟,现在连传奇人物里奥·梅西都在那里占据着统治地位——比如国际迈阿密!与一级联赛J1相比,差距相当大。足球迷和我们这些渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待这两支球队之间的比赛达到J2联赛的平均水平。到目前为止,仙台维加尔塔在J2联赛中表现糟糕,目前在该联赛中排名第15位,共有22家俱乐部。到目前为止,他们只拿到了32分,但令人惊讶的是,他们的预期积分(xPTS)甚至更低。是的,从纯粹的水平来看,他们应该比排名所反映的要好得多,但这个赛季似乎没有什么对他们有用。在我的纯实力排名中,他们目前排在第14位。根据季前赛的深入分析,我大大降低了他们的能量等级。另一方面,访客在该排名中排名第11位。东道主在比赛的各个方面都有改进的潜力,但似乎球鞋制造商过于强调这一点,这又一次导致他们在这里被明显高估了!事实上,最大的、通常是相当聪明的博彩公司,他们的赌注限制也最大,认为东道主在这里是绝对的热门,开出2.15左右的赔率,让游客空手而归。这太低了!事实上,我把这场比赛看作是一场掷硬币的比赛——一场没有真正的赢家的对半博弈。这意味着,按照目前的赔率——除非在北京时间周五晚上写完这篇预告后宣布新的关键球员缺席——很明显,这里的赌注是藤田+0.5个进球障碍!博彩公司认为这场比赛以联盟的标准来看是非典型的高分比赛,但我不太同意。根据我强大的基于数据的专家分析,得分低于2.5的概率是43%。我相信平局对任何一支球队来说都不会令人失望,这个结果足以给我和我的球迷带来另一个赌日本足球的赢家。我也预演了周六联赛的其他几场比赛。

尽管他们的水平和潜力,但仙台维加尔塔已经很长一段时间处于如此糟糕的状态,以至于根本不可能将他们视为最受欢迎的球队!我也不相信他们的教练在战术技巧方面,也不相信他作为一个领导者能激励球员,增强他们的信心。他们最近9场比赛一场都没赢,显然信心不足。根据我的消息来源,目前球队的团队精神也不是很好。在他们最近的一场比赛中,他们作为一个团队完全失去了平衡,在主场以3-4输给了威尔迪。尤其是他们的防守“一团糟”。客队创造了更多的射门机会和得分机会,尽管在下半场比分为2-4时,仙台维加尔塔给客队的防守施加了一些压力,但客队理应获得胜利。事实上,威尔迪变得太被动了,但东道主即使在下半场也没有给我留下深刻的印象。他们在最近的5场比赛中丢了17球,当然他们应该能够更好地防守。客队虽然在J2联赛中丢了48个球,但本赛季的预期失球数(xGA)仍然“只有”41.23个。他们可以在这方面提高很多,但不太可能完全摆脱愚蠢的个人错误。他们的教练说过,目前最关键的事情之一就是建立一个更好的防守结构。富士迪亚以36分排在第10位,这支新升级的球队本赛季给了我们一个非常积极的惊喜!博彩公司应该更尊重他们!在进攻端,他们本赛季明显好于东道主,在联赛中有40次进球。这超过了目前以48分排名第三的Verdy。他们最近的状态也不太好,但至少在最近的10场比赛中比东道主多拿了很多分。他们在最近的一场比赛中表现平平——在一场平衡的比赛之后,他们以1-1战平金泽。在此之前,他们输给了一个强大的球队,岩田(排名第二,48分),客场1-4,是一个巨大的劣势,博彩公司的胜率在6.00左右。是的,岩田聪应该获胜,但最终的比分仍然非常具有误导性。傅

杰达有53%的控球率,甚至记录了更多的总传球、完成传球、进攻(82胜59负)和危险进攻。他们创造了11次进球机会,岩田聪成功了15次。

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