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Can China qualify to 1/8 finals?

2023-07-22

比赛分析

女世界杯

已完赛

星期六2023-07-22 20:00

解读理由

Odds should be much more equal here.

This is a crucial game for both teams as they are supposed to be fighting for the TOP2 in this group. So a draw wouldn’t be a bad result for them, aiming for the victories against Haiti and trying to get some point against England.

After failing in qualifying for the last three World Cups, Denmark is hoping to reach the 1 ⁄ 8 finals for the first time since 1995. They are now 13th in the FIFA Ranking, the highest since 2018 and one above China, who is 14th.

Their captain Pernille Harder is their best player, winning a lot of titles with her club and surely one of the best players in the world. The Denmark squad has a bit of everything: Domestic players, international players (Sofie Svaa, Signe Bruun). Exciting youth (Kathirne Kuhl)... But manager Sondegaard will have to deal with two important absences on this tournament: Sofie Junge and Stine Larsen, who is a very important player for Denmark, and she has been injured so will lose the world WC.

On the other hand, the Asian champions China are technically very good, like to move the ball around and have quality players in forward positions, so I see them as a very difficult opponent for Denmark.

Some key players are captain Wang Shanshan, who along with Shan Rui have accumulated more than 300 games between them. But their star is Wang Shuang, the team’s best player and a real danger for the opponents given her quality, good long-distance shot, finishing and set pieces. During her spell at PSG a few years ago, she scored seven league goals and has two this season in the NWSL. Combined with the experienced Wang Shanshan up front, who is one of China’s most prolific scorers, their partnership could give China their best chance of progressing, while former Tottenham Hotspur forward Tang Jiali is also an option. China will be strong going forward with these players.

They are a tough team to judge into this 2023 tournament. They were runners-up in 1999 losing the final against the USA, and in the last WC in 2019 they reached the ⅛ finals. They have a strong pedigree in this tournament, as they have never lost in the group stage and their only disappointment came in 2011 when they didn't manage to qualify to the WC.

A few years ago, the Chinese Women’s Super League made a big push to sign some top players, including Zambia’s Barbra Banda and Malawi striker Tabitha Chawinga (now at Inter Milan), but COVID-19 stunted the progress of the domestic league. Now only a smattering of their key players play abroad, such as Wang Shuang (at Racing Louisville in the NWSL), but this doesn’t mean that they don't have the same quality and experience as other European national teams.

This squad also has confidence after recently winning the AFC Asian Cup for the first time in 16 years, beating Japan in the semi-finals and South Korea in the final. The trio Shuang-Shanshan and Jiali scored 19 goals between them in that tournament.

If China are at least to make it out of the group, they will need to be solid at both ends. A solid, if at times unspectacular side, China are a possession team and the influence in attack of the aforementioned Wang Shuang will be pivotal to their hopes. At the other end, they have conceded just once in their last five games, which will prove important against the attacking threats of England, Denmark and Haiti. Their final warm-up game against Colombia (2:2) may give a better idea of the level they’re at.

I really see this game as a fight for second place, so whoever comes out on top has a great chance of qualifying, and I’m going for a China win or draw. I don’t really see Denmark strong enough to be favorites here, whilst I also see China dangerous enough to achieve some point and why not, qualify to the ⅛ finals in this group along with England.

One more note - odds in the bookmakers are going down a lot for China. The double chance opened at 3.19 and now is below 2.00, which is a signal that bettors are clearly going in favor of China. Denmark’s victory opened at 1.36 and now is above 1.90. And surely the odds will continue following the trend and drop even more for China till tomorrow.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

这里的概率应该更相等。

这对两支球队来说都是至关重要的一场比赛,因为他们应该为小组前二而战。所以平局对他们来说并不是一个坏的结果,他们的目标是战胜海地,并试图在对阵英格兰的比赛中获得一些积分。

在过去三届世界杯预选赛中失利后,丹麦队有望自1995年以来首次进入1 / 8决赛。他们目前在国际足联排名中排名第13位,这是自2018年以来的最高水平,仅次于排名第14位的中国。

他们的队长佩尼尔·是他们最好的球员,在她的俱乐部赢得了很多冠军,当然也是世界上最好的球员之一。丹麦队什么都有:国内球员,国际球员(苏菲·斯瓦和西格纳·布鲁恩)。激动人心的青春(凯瑟琳·库尔)……但主教练桑德加德将不得不面对两名重要球员的缺阵:索菲·荣格和泰恩·拉森,后者是丹麦的重要球员,她因伤将无缘世界杯。

另一方面,亚洲冠军中国队在技术上非常出色,喜欢跑动球,在前锋位置上有优秀的球员,所以我认为他们是丹麦的一个非常难对付的对手。

一些关键球员是队长王珊珊,他和单瑞一起累积了300多场比赛。但他们的明星球员是王爽,她是球队最好的球员,对对手来说是一个真正的威胁,因为她的素质、出色的远射、射门和定位球。几年前在巴黎圣日耳曼效力期间,她打进了7个联赛进球,本赛季在NWSL有2个进球。前场有经验丰富的王珊珊,她是中国队最多产的射手之一,他们的搭档可能会给中国队带来最好的晋级机会,而前托特纳姆热刺前锋唐家丽也是一个选择。有了这些球员,中国将会强大起来。

在2023年的比赛中,他们是一支很难评判的球队。他们是1999年世界杯的亚军,在决赛中输给了美国队,在2019年的世界杯上,他们进入了决赛。他们在这次比赛中有着强大的血统,因为他们从来没有在小组赛中输过,他们唯一的失望是在2011年,他们没能进入世界杯。

几年前,中国女超大力引进了一些顶级球员,包括赞比亚的芭芭拉·班达和马拉维前锋塔比莎·查温加(现效力于国际米兰),但新冠肺炎阻碍了国内联赛的发展。现在只有一小部分主力球员在国外踢球,比如王爽(效力于NWSL的路易斯维尔赛车),但这并不意味着他们没有和其他欧洲国家队一样的实力和经验。

在半决赛击败日本队、决赛击败韩国队,16年来首次赢得亚洲杯后,这支球队也充满了信心。双姗姗和佳丽三人组在那届比赛中共打入19球。

如果中国队至少想从小组出线,他们就需要在两端都保持稳固。中国队是一支稳固的球队,虽然有时并不引人注目,但他们是一支控球球队,前面提到的王爽在进攻端的影响力将对他们的希望至关重要。另一方面,他们在最近的五场比赛中只丢了一次球,这将对英格兰、丹麦和海地的进攻威胁起到重要作用。他们的最后一场热身赛对阵哥伦比亚(2:2),或许能让我们更好地了解他们的水平。

我真的把这场比赛看作是争夺第二名的比赛,所以无论谁排在第一都有很大的机会出线,我希望中国队赢或平局。我不认为丹麦有足够的实力成为最受欢迎的球队,同时我也认为中国有足够的危险来获得一些积分,为什么不呢,和英格兰一起进入这个小组的决赛。

还有一点值得注意的是,博彩公司对中国的赔率正在大幅下降。双倍赔率开盘价为3.19,现在跌至2.00以下,这是投注者明显倾向于中国的信号。丹麦的胜利以1.36开盘,现在在1.90之上。当然,这种可能性将继续沿着这一趋势,直到明天,中国的胜算还会进一步下降。

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