Odds on hosts raised too much and now I see very good value on home side.

In my opinion Erzgebirge Aue have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

I simply don't see St.Pauli as a favorite of this match. They have extremely poor record against Aue - they recorded only one win in last 12 matches against them. What is even more interesting - Aue won last 5 home matches in a row against St.Pauli!

These odds in my eyes looks incorrect - 5 seasons ago Aue was priced 2.30 at home against St.Pauli (3:0), 4 seasons ago 2.42 (1:0), 3 seasons ago 2.28 (2:1), 2 seasons ago 2.53 (3:1) and in previous season 2.50 (3:1). In first match of the season between both teams when St.Pauli played at home we saw higher odds on them than today - match finished with draw 1:1.

I don't see St.Pauli as a stronger team as both teams are very close in the table (8th&9th), in 27 matches St.Pauli gained only one point more.

Of course St.Pauli form in last weeks looked really good, but I don't trust them so much in away matches - they won only 17 of last 64 away Bundesliga 2 matches. On thr other hand Aue is extremely solid home team - they didn't lost in 25 of last 30 home Bundesliga 2 matches. It's very hard for me to see them as a underdog at home today.

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主队的赔率太高了，现在我觉得主队很有价值。

在我看来，埃尔兹伯里队在今天的比赛中有很好的机会至少进一分。

我不认为圣保利会是这场比赛的宠儿。他们对奥厄的战绩非常糟糕——在过去12场对奥厄的比赛中，他们只赢了一场。更有趣的是，奥厄在最近5场主场对阵圣保利的比赛中连胜!

这些概率在我看来是不正确的- 5个赛季前奥厄主场对阵圣保利的价格是2.30(3:0)，4个赛季是2.42(1:0)，3个赛季是2.28(2:1)，2个赛季是2.53(3:1)，上个赛季是2.50(3:1)。在本赛季的第一场比赛中，圣保利主场对阵两队，我们看到了比今天更高的赔率——比赛以1:1的平局结束。

我不认为圣保利是一支更强的球队，因为两支球队在积分榜上非常接近(第八和第九)，在27场比赛中圣保利只多得了一分。

当然圣保利上周的状态看起来不错，但我不太相信他们的客场比赛——他们在过去64场德乙比赛中只赢了17场。另一方面，奥厄是一支非常稳固的主场球队——他们在过去30场主场比赛中只输了5场。今天在主场，我很难看到他们处于劣势。