My favorite time of season is here, when the motivation factor kicks in and all borders are lost between leagues. It doesn't matter anymore who plays whom and where - it mainly goes down to the table and what every particular team is chasing.

In Belgium tonight modest club Eupen faces St.Liege, who are relishing dreams of Europa League berth. Hosts basically have a 5% chance of making it into the quartet of teams, which will be involved in Europa League group play-offs. They are currently -5 pts behind and 6 points to be played out + the goal difference is -8. It literally would take a miracle for Europe to overtake 5 teams in a matter of 2 rounds. This said, it’s fair to rate them as a “nothing to play for” team.

Liege, on the other hand, is not only the most financially ambitious club of the ones chasing Europa League play-offs, but also have arguably the most realistic chances of making it. In order to do so, only a win will work tonight vs. Eupen. Liege is just -1 point behind top 8 and has a better goal difference than 3 of the 4 teams above them (+4).

St.Liege were trading 1.75 on 0 handicap last night. A big drop based on arguments stated above has taken them to -0.5 handicap favorites with 1.94 odds. It is one of the classic “end of season” cases, which should not be ignored.

我最喜欢的就是联赛收官阶段，当激励因素开始发挥作用，所有联赛之间的边界都消失了。谁和谁在哪里比赛已经不重要了——重要的是每个球队都在追求什么。

今晚在比利时，谦逊的欧本将面对标准列日，标准列日正梦想着进入欧罗巴联赛。欧本基本上有5%的机会进入联赛前四。他们现在落后5分，还差6分，净胜球差是-8。要争取欧战资格真的需要奇迹才行。也就是说，把他们评为“没什么战意的”队伍是公平的。

另一方面，标准列日不仅是最具野心和能力的俱乐部，而且有可能成为最有希望进入欧联杯附加赛的俱乐部。要做到这一点，今晚只有赢了欧本才有希望。标准列日仅落后附加赛区1分，比4支竞争球队中的3支有更好的净胜球(+4)。

综合来看，看好标准列日。