Porto did well to qualify versus the disappointing favorites Juventus playing with 10 players for a long time after Taremi was sent off after 2 yellow cards. However I don't think Porto were excellent - more like Juventus where far from their best!  Even C. Ronaldo was rusty and annoyed on the pitch. However Chelsea indeed did play amazingly well versus the La Liga leaders Atletico Madrid. I watched both matches twice and I must say Chelsea didn't really give the Spanish team any chance at all and didn't allow more than a few scoring chances! It is clear that Atletico were not at their best but Chelsea were indeed impressive, especially in defense. Chelsea have a real chance to win The Champions League!

Chelsea did lose to low-level West Brow last week-end 2-5, a shocking result even taking the red card Chelsea received into account but that was just one match and I'm pretty sure Chelsea were not 100% focused in this match ahead of the super important Champions League match today and the second leg next week. Chelsea losing to WBA has probably scared some bettors here and affects odds more than it should. Let's not forget how well Chelsea have played under Thomas Tuchel for a few months already. The difference compared to the level of play under Frank Lampard is huge! 

Porto have beaten bigger teams many times in Champions League and other European cups in the past and to everyone's surprise even lifted the trophy back in 2004 under Jose Mourinho but in today's match there is now real home advantage and Chelsea are the with a lot better raw class. They have some 64-65% chance of winning. Porto will probably play pretty defensively, especially today - just like A. Madrid did in the first leg (lost 0-1). Porto are of course overall a worse team than Atletico and is hard to think of a tactic they could use beat Chelsea.. If, instead of defending hard they choose are too aggressive in offense Chelsea will score several goals. Of course Porto, with some luck might force a draw here but hardly more and I'm pretty confident about this pick. Porto are missing an important offensive player S. Oliveira which hurts a lot!