HIFK vs Salpa

HIFK welcome visitors from the small city of Salo for this Finnish Ykkönen clash at Bolt Arena in Helsinki late Sunday evening Beijing time. I know my home country’s football super well and we have yet another very promising betting opportunity here! The level of Ykkönen is very low by European standards but it has still improved a bit during the last 8-10 years. Even so, most players are not even professional footballers. Luckily for my fans and me the bookies put much more time and resources on the big leagues – MLS, Brazil Serie A etc in the summer to mention a few - than on Ykkönen where they make many mistakes with their odds! There is no question about the fact that HIFK are the better team here! They were relegated from Veikkausliiga, the first tier, for this season. They were abysmal last season but have a new coach and many new players this season. The difference between Ykkönen and Veikkausliiga is substantial. By Ykkönen standards HIFK have good squad. Their publicly announced players salary budget is, in fact, lower than that of SalPa but for example Paulus Arajuuri's – who is a former Finnish national team defender – big salary is not included in the ”official” budget. He is paid by a sponsor. Salpa were promoted from Kakkonen, the third tier, for this season. They are one of the worst teams in Ykkönen by pure class. They are a young and pretty inexperienced team. They have taken 11 points so far but their number of expected points (xPTS) is just 9.45.

At home SalPa have been okay in most games but on the road they have lost four of the six games in Ykkönen. Furthermore, they have lost four of the most recent five games in Ykkönen and have clearly declined from early season! They do have some offensive quality but their defense has been pretty leaky and they have conceded 17 goals in Ykkönne so far. Their number of goals allowed (xGA) is even bigger – 19.09. HIFK have been strong this season especially after the messy three games in the spring. They have allowed just 12 goals and have the second-best defense in Ykkönen. Offensively they have not convinced anyone but can still improve a lot in this area and the bookies probably underestimate their offense. Even so, 1-0 or 2-0 are pretty probable scored here – a high-scoring game is somewhat improbable. HIFK lost to Gnistan away from home in their latest game 0-4. However, Gnistan are the best team in Ykkönen at the moment and were clear favorites in this game – priced around 1.90 to win by the bookies. The final score is very misleading despite the fact that Gnistan did deserve to win. They had just one more goal attempt than HIFK. I also want to mention that HIFK played below their normal level in this game. Today the hosts have a 62% chance to win so the odds of around 1.80 offered by the bookies are too high. They have 17 points in their pocket but their xPTS is 19.32.

HIFK vs Salpa

北京时间周日晚，在赫尔辛基博尔特体育馆举行的这场芬兰Ykkönen比赛中，国际机场欢迎来自小城市萨洛的游客。我非常了解我的祖国足球，我们这里还有一个非常有前途的赌博机会!按照欧洲标准，Ykkönen的水平非常低，但在过去的8-10年里，它仍然有所改善。即便如此，大多数球员甚至不是职业足球运动员。幸运的是，对于我和我的球迷来说，博彩公司在大联赛上投入了更多的时间和资源，比如美国职业足球大联盟，巴西意甲等等，而不是在Ykkönen上，他们在赔率上犯了很多错误!毫无疑问，HIFK在这里是一支更好的球队!他们本赛季从一级联赛维考斯利加降级。他们上个赛季表现糟糕，但这个赛季有了新教练和许多新球员。Ykkönen和Veikkausliiga之间的差异是巨大的。按照Ykkönen的标准，HIFK有很好的阵容。事实上，他们公开宣布的球员工资预算低于萨尔帕，但例如前芬兰国家队后卫保卢斯·阿拉朱利的高薪就不包括在“官方”预算中。他是由赞助人支付报酬的。萨尔帕是本赛季从第三梯队卡卡宁升班马的。他们是Ykkönen纯级别最差的球队之一。他们是一支年轻而缺乏经验的队伍。到目前为止，他们已经拿到了11分，但他们的期望分数(xPTS)只有9.45分。

在主场，萨尔帕在大多数比赛中都表现不错，但在客场，他们在Ykkönen的六场比赛中输了四场。此外，他们在Ykkönen最近的五场比赛中输掉了四场，并且从赛季初开始明显下降!他们的进攻确实有一些质量，但是他们的防守很有漏洞，目前为止他们在Ykkönne比赛中丢了17个球。他们的失球数(xGA)更大——19.09个。本赛季，特别是在春季混乱的三场比赛之后，HIFK一直很强大。他们只丢了12个球，他们的防守在Ykkönen排名第二。在进攻端，他们还没有说服任何人，但在这方面他们还可以提高很多，而博彩公司可能低估了他们的进攻端。即便如此，1-0或2-0的比分还是很有可能的——一场高比分的比赛是不太可能的。在最近的一场比赛中，fk客场0-4不敌阿富汗。然而，目前在Ykkönen中，吉尼斯坦是最好的球队，并且在这场比赛中是最受欢迎的球队——博彩公司的胜率在1.90左右。最后的比分很容易误导人，尽管事实是格尼斯坦确实应该获胜。他们只比HIFK多进了一个球。我还想提一下，HIFK在这场比赛中的表现低于他们的正常水平。今天，东道主有62%的机会获胜，所以博彩公司提供的1.80左右的赔率太高了。他们现在有17分，但是他们的xPTS只有19.32分。