Arsenal de Sarandi VS CA Platense

Arsenal Sarandi host Platense for this Argentinian Liga Profesional round 21 battle at Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona in Avellaneda in Buenos Aires early Monday morning Beijing time. This league is of lower level as a whole by global standards than many football enthusiasts and bettors probably realize - taking into consideration what a great football country Argentina is in terms of football culture and – of course, led by Leo Messi, they lifted the World Cup trophy last December in Qatar! It is, on average, similar to many other South American leagues, for example the Brazilian Serie A and the Colombian Primera A, a low-scoring league. This match is no exception! The probability of under 1.5 goals scored is 50%. The hosts' offense has not really impressed me in Liga Profesional recently. They have, however, been unlucky in terms of expected goals (xG). They have netted the ball just 15 times in Liga Pro so far this season. Even so, their offense is not among the worst in this league! I strongly believe that they can significantly improve in this area of the game. Their number of xG is 19.68. The hosts have grabbed just 17 points but would have deserved just 22.09 in terms of expected points (xPTS). Platense too, have had offensive problems lately and the visitors are expected to be somewhat defensive here – as they usually are on the road.. They have been weak away from home and have lost six of the nine games on the road in Liga Pro so far this season. Moreover they have allowed 14 goals away from home and scored just seven times. The home advantage in Liga Pro is substantial on average - and this is the case here as well! 

I have disagreed with the biggest, often pretty sharp bookies who see the visitors as favorites and offer them odds of around 2.80 to take all three points today. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based in-depth analysis the hosts deserve to be the favorites to take all three points in this game so the smart choice is the visitors +0.5 goals! The probability of a draw is exceptionally high – 36%. With today's expected lineups the visitors do have a narrow edge over the hosts in terms of offensive quality. They have netted the ball 21 times so far and their number of xG is 20.12. When taking a loot at the defensive quality I see the teams as equal. The visitors currently occupy the 14th place in the standings with 26 points to their account. However, most of my fans already know that I never let the standings fool me! Their number of expected points is just 23.12. They are in the 21st place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. Arsenal Sarandi are in the 23th place in this rating. Last season Platense took two more points than today's hosts. In their most recent game Arsenal Sarandi played very well despite losing to a strong team, Talleres Córdoba, 0-1 away from home. They were massive underdogs in this game according to the bookies. The hosts were priced around 1.30 to take all three points. This was yet another example of the bookies underestimating Arsenal Sarandi! The match was - quite surprisingly, a pretty balanced one. The visitors even recorded one more goal attempt! Talleres Cordoba generated just marginally more in xG - 0.67-0.64 to be precise. Before this they beat Boca Juniors at home 1-0 at home as massive underdogs on the betting market. They recorded 0.97 in xG – Boca Juniors managed just 0.32. Boca's Weigandt did receive a red card in the second half though.

萨兰迪阿森纳VS普拉坦塞

北京时间周一凌晨，阿根廷甲级联赛第21轮比赛将在布宜诺斯艾利斯阿韦亚内达的胡里奥·温贝托·格隆多纳球场进行。从全球标准来看，这个联赛的整体水平比许多足球爱好者和投注者可能意识到的要低——考虑到阿根廷在足球文化方面是一个多么伟大的足球国家，当然，在梅西的带领下，他们去年12月在卡塔尔举起了世界杯奖杯!平均而言，它与许多其他南美联赛相似，例如巴西甲级联赛和哥伦比亚甲级联赛，这是一个低得分联赛。这场比赛也不例外!进球少于1.5个的概率是50%。在最近的西甲联赛中，主队的进攻并没有给我留下深刻的印象。然而，就预期目标(xG)而言，他们并不走运。本赛季到目前为止，他们在西甲联赛中只有15次进球。即便如此，他们的进攻也不是联盟中最差的!我坚信他们能够在游戏的这一领域取得显著的进步。它们的xG数是19.68。东道主目前只拿到了17分，但如果以期望积分(xPTS)计算，他们本应得到22.09分。普拉坦塞最近也有进攻上的问题，客队在这里会有一些防守——因为他们通常都在客场。他们在客场表现不佳，本赛季到目前为止，他们在西甲联赛的9场客场比赛中输掉了6场。此外，他们在客场丢了14球，只进了7球。平均来说，西甲联赛的主场优势是巨大的——这里也是如此!

我不同意最大的，通常是相当敏锐的博彩公司，他们认为客队是最受欢迎的，并为他们提供2.80左右的赔率，以获得今天的全部三分。根据我老练的、强有力的基于数据的深入分析，东道主应该是本场比赛中拿到全部三分的热门球队，所以明智的选择是客队+0.5球!平局的可能性非常高——36%。在今天的预期阵容下，客队在进攻质量上确实比主队略胜一筹。到目前为止，他们的进球次数为21次，罚球次数为20.12次。当在防守质量上获得战利品时，我认为球队是平等的。客队目前在积分榜上排名第14位，积26分。然而，我的大多数粉丝已经知道，我从不让排名欺骗我!他们的期望值只有23.12分。在我的实力排名中，他们排在第21位，这反映了球队的纯粹实力。阿森纳萨兰迪在这个排名中排名第23位。上赛季，普拉塔塞比今天的东道主多拿了两分。在他们最近的一场比赛中，阿森纳萨兰迪踢得很好，尽管客场0-1输给了强队塔列雷斯Córdoba。根据博彩公司的说法，他们在这场比赛中处于劣势。东道主的价格在1.30左右，可以拿到全部三分。这是另一个赌马人低估阿森纳萨兰迪的例子!令人惊讶的是，这场比赛非常平衡。客队甚至还尝试了一个进球!塔列斯·科尔多瓦在xG赛季的得分略高，准确地说是0.67-0.64。在此之前，他们在主场1-0击败博卡青年队，在博彩市场上他们是大输家。他们在xG赛季的得分为0.97，而博卡青年队的得分仅为0.32。博卡的韦根特在下半场得到了一张红牌。