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英国亚马逊员工,常年现场看各级别联赛,非常熟悉球队,有十多年经验盈利丰厚。
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Where is real value in this match?

2021-04-07

比赛分析

日职

已完赛

星期三2021-04-07 18:00

解读理由

In my opinion Shonan have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

I see great value on hosts here. Shonan likes to play at home against Nagoya. They lost only one of last 7 home matches against them.

Odds are simply too low on guests. For example: 3 years ago Nagoya was 2.57 to win here, 2 years ago 2.18, in previous season we saw 1.78. Today's 1.55 is extremely low and I have to go against it.

Of course, on the paper Nagoya looks great with 6 wins in 7 matches, but I don't trust them in long term. They had a lot of luck in current season so far. For sure they are not one of the best team in whole league. 3.6 shots on target per game is 9th result in league, 332 accurate passes per game or 46.7% average ball possession is bottom half of the table numbers. I believe markets really overreacted for their results till now.

Shonan is limited team of course, but they found some really good consistency in last matches. They lost only one of last 5 matches - on away against in-form Tokyo. Shonan improved a lot in defense as they conceded only one goal in last 3 matches. I'm sure they will start today with very defensive mindset and that will be very problematic for Nagoya to break that wall because they are simply poor team with the ball.

I see very hard match for guests and value for sure is on home side.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

在我看来,湘南在今天的比赛中有很好的机会至少得一分。

我在这里看到了主机的巨大价值。昭南喜欢在家里和名古屋比赛。他们在最近的7场主场比赛中只输了一场。

客人太少了。例如:3年前名古屋以2.57的成绩在这里获胜,2年前是2.18,而上个赛季我们的成绩是1.78。今天的1.55是非常低的,我必须与之相反。

当然,从纸面上看,名古屋7场6胜的战绩看起来很棒,但我对他们的长期表现并不信任。本赛季到目前为止,他们运气不错。可以肯定的是,他们不是整个联盟中最好的球队之一。每场比赛3.6次射正球在联赛排名第九,每场比赛332次准确传球或46.7%的平均控球率排在积分榜的后半位。我相信市场到目前为止对他们的结果反应过度了。

湘南当然是一支有限的球队,但是他们在最后几场比赛中找到了一些很好的一致性。他们在最近的5场比赛中只输了一场——接下来是对阵状态正佳的东京。湘南在防守上进步了很多,因为他们在最近三场比赛中只丢了一个球。我相信他们今天会以防守的心态开始比赛,这对名古屋来说要打破这堵墙将是一个很大的问题,因为他们的控球能力很差。

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