More of a guts bet this on Liverpool, supported by a number of decent arguments.

1). Spanish giants are without key defensive duo Varane (COVID) and Ramos (injury). Defense is the cornerstone of Zidane’s team, as you may well know, and absence of first choice centre-backs is a significantly greater problem than for Liverpool the absence of Van Dijk and Gomez. Moreover, Klopp’s already got used to the latter’s injuries, while lack of Varane-Ramos is a “fresh” issue for Zidane and something his team will have to adjust to in-game. At the weekend he had risked changing formation to 3421 against lowly Eibar. An experiment like this could flop at the Champions League stage.

2). Further squad issues for Real include the injury to right fullback Carvajal. His replacement Vazquez is not a defender, but a pulled out of position attacking winger. Obviously he will have a hard time containing Mane on the flank.

3). Liverpool suddenly found impressive form after domestic issues. They’ve gone 3 consecutive games without conceding a goal now (against RB Leipzig, Wolves and Arsenal). In the latter game they literally gave nothing away to the opposition and would have finished with a 5-0/6-0 scoreline, such dominant was their presence on the pitch.

4). With no fans in the stands, the current 0 handicap represents great value, in my opinion. Liverpool has all eyes on the Champions League, having lost the title in EPL to Man City. Real Madrid is not only involved hard in the title race in La Liga, but also has a fundamentally important match coming in 4 days - el Clasico against Barcelona.

I expect Klopp to take a positive result from the 1st leg and go through to the ½ finals stage.

Odds have already dropped by 0.15 today and I expect them to change the 0 handicap to -0.25 at kick-off.