Kashima Antlers VS Shonan Bellmare

Kashima Antlers and Shonan Bellmare lock horns in this Japanese J League round 17 battle at Toyota Kashima Soccer Stadium Sunday afternoon Beijing time. This is the highest level of Japanese football. Japan is the strongest football country – and this league is the best – in Asia at the moment! We can expect a match of decent level here by J League standards. My fans and I have won six games in a row betting on this league and 9/10 on Japanese football overall at the time of writing this preview early Saturday night Beijing time! There is no doubt about the fact that we have yet another very promising opportunity to make profit here! Most of my fans are by now probably aware of the fact that I never let the league table fool me! Well, here the table does not actually lie, but I but the difference between the two teams by pure class and current level are, in fact, even more clear than the league table would indicate! Let's take a closer look at the game..

Kashima Antlers currently occupy the 3rd place in the standings. They have a decent 25 points to their account. They have not quite met my expectations that I had on them in my sophisticated, in-depth preseason analysis that took me almost five days to write/calculate. The hosts' number of expected points (xPTS) is, however, clearly higher than the actual 25 – 28.05 to be precise. Last season Kashima Antlers finished in 4th place with an impressive 52 points in their pocket and a good score difference of 47:42. Based on my xPTS data they would have deserved 54.66 points. Furthermore, they were unlucky in several tight matches – only grabbing a draw when they would in many cases deserved - or at least had a strong chance – to take all three points! In the 2021 season, too, they finished in 4th place with 69 points. Shonan Bellmare, on the other hand, finished in 12th place with just 41 points last season - and a weak goal difference of 31:39. The bookies do not seem to have fully realized how much potential the hosts have for improvement – in all areas of the game! I would not be at all surprised if they were to finish in the top-4 again this season.. They have arguably not quite met my - rather high – expectations in terms of offensive efficiency. This was a big problem early season but now they have found a better structure and rhythm on offense!  They have netted the ball 22 times in this league so far. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is 25.67. Their attacks, however, are still sometimes a bit too slow and their players pass the ball too inaccurately near the opponent's goal – compared to the top-2 teams.. They also sometimes lack creativity against teams that defend near the goal - with almost all men. Moreover, the midfielders should be more active – even taking some risks – in attacking when the score is level or Kashima Antlers are trailing. Shonan Bellmare, on the other hand, have been stronger offensively  than I would have expected before the season started. They have scored 23 goals but their number of xPTS is significantly lower – 18.12. Indeed, the hosts do have an edge over the visitors also in this area of the game!

In terms of defensive class the hosts' edge is even bigger than in terms of goal-scoring potential. Indeed, they have conceded just 16 goals. In fact, only four teams have allowed less goals! I have to mention that Kashima Antlers' number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is a little bigger than 16 though - 17.42. Even so, they have a fine defensive structure and attitude. Some silly individual defensive mistakes have happened this season but they are still pretty few. The visitors' defense has been very leaky and they have allowed 27 goals! They have made some "hilarious"  defensive mistakes and have sometimes even looked a bit lazy in defending especially away from home. Only two teams have conceded more goals! They can improve a bit in this area but I believe it will take time and the bookies should give this factor more emphasis. I would not be shocked to see the hosts scoring even more than two goals.. I also want to mention that on a respected and well-known German website, Transfermarkt.com, the hosts' players' listed market value is significantly bigger than that of the visitors'. It stands at close to 19 million euros which is still too low! Three players are undervalued. Shonan Bellmare's squad is valued at around 11.40 million which is too high. I would set the number at around nine million. Four players are not really worth their market value in my opinion. The market values can, of course, sometimes be misleading but still quite well reflect the teams' level on the pitch in real action. To sum up, the hosts have a clear edge over Shonan Bellmare in all areas of the game! The hosts are in 4th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. The visitors have been very disappointing this season and I have, as result, lowered their power rating from the sophisticated in-depth preseason analysis.. They are currently in 15th place in this ranking and have grabbed a pathetic 12 points in this league with a total of 18 teams. All three bottom teams have the same number of points in their pocket. Odds of around 2.00 are offered by the biggest bookies with the largest stake limits at the time of writing this analysis. However, I would expect smart money to pile up on the hosts and the odds to go down unless critical news concerning the lineups appears later on.. Even with the expected lineups the hosts have a 58% chance to win.

Shonan Bellmare have been pretty weak on the road – they have won just one game away from home this season in the J League. They sometimes lack the confidence to pass the ball patiently and are usually too passive away from home and often can't handle the pressure created by the opponent for the whole match. Too much defending – chasing the ball is very tiring.. The hosts have been very strong lately winning seven times and taking three draws in their latest 10 games! In their most recent game they crushed Honda FC 3-0 at home in an Emperor's Cup clash as clear favorites  - odds around 1.40 offered by the bookies to win in regulation time. Honda FC are a small team though. Before this they faced a strong team, Urawa Reds (5th place) away from home in a cautious but high-level game as pretty clear underdogs. No goals were, however, scored. The match could have gone either way. Kashima Antlers did generate more in xG though – 0.56-0.39 though. Before this they would have deserved a win away from home over Sagan Tosu. It was, however, a 2-2 draw after an entertaining game. The visitors created 2.21 in xG – the hosts' number was 1.38. Shonan Bellmare have been horribly bad recently winning just one of their last 12 games! They have looked low in confidence in most J1 League games in April, May and this month. They did beat a very small team, BTOP Hokkaido 6-1 on Wednesday in an Emperor's Cup game but no one expected the visitors to have any chance anyway.. I  give this match  very little emphasis ahead of Sunday's clash. Before this they played a decent match against Albirex Niigata at home priced around 2.10 to win. Both teams recorded 1.80 in xG but the visitors created more goal attempts and shots on and off goal and also had 56% ball possession. Shonan Bellmare would need to improve significantly - or get lucky to win against a much stronger team on Sunday..

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

鹿岛鹿角VS秀南贝尔马

北京时间周日下午，鹿岛鹿角队和申南贝尔马队将在日本J联赛第17轮的比赛中在丰田鹿岛足球场展开对决。这是日本足球的最高水平。日本是目前亚洲最强的足球国家，这个联赛也是最好的!按照J联赛的标准，我们可以期待一场不错的比赛。在北京时间周六晚上写这篇文章的时候，我和我的球迷已经连续赢了六场联赛，并以9/10的赔率赢了日本足球。毫无疑问，我们在这里又有一个非常有希望的盈利机会!我的大多数球迷现在可能已经意识到，我从来没有让积分榜欺骗我!好吧，这里的表格实际上并不存在，但我认为两支球队之间的纯粹阶级和当前水平的差异，实际上比排名表所显示的还要清楚!让我们来仔细看看这个游戏。

鹿岛鹿角目前在积分榜上排名第三。他们的账户上有可观的25分。他们并没有完全达到我在季前赛分析中对他们的期望，我花了将近五天的时间来写/计算。然而，主机的期望点数(xPTS)明显高于实际的25 - 28.05。上赛季鹿岛鹿角队以令人印象深刻的52分和47:42的优异成绩排名第四。根据我的xPTS数据，他们应该得到54.66分。此外，他们在几场势均力敌的比赛中运气不佳——在很多情况下，他们本可以拿到三分，或者至少有很大的机会拿到三分，但他们只拿到了一场平局!在2021赛季，他们也以69分排名第四。另一方面，Shonan Bellmare上赛季仅以41分排名第12位，净胜球仅为31:39。博彩公司似乎还没有完全意识到东道主在比赛的各个方面有多大的改进潜力!如果他们本赛季再次进入前四，我一点也不会感到惊讶。他们在进攻效率方面并没有达到我的期望。这在赛季初是一个大问题，但现在他们已经找到了更好的进攻结构和节奏!到目前为止，他们在这个联赛中已经取得了22次进球。然而，他们的预期目标数(xG)是25.67。然而，与排名前二的球队相比，他们的进攻有时仍然有点太慢，他们的球员在对手的球门附近传球太不准确。他们有时也缺乏创造力对抗那些在球门附近防守的球队——几乎所有人都是男人。此外，当比分持平或鹿岛鹿角队落后时，中场应该更积极——甚至冒一些风险——进攻。另一方面，贝尔梅尔的进攻比我在赛季开始前预期的要强大。他们打进了23个进球，但他们的射门得分却少得多，只有18.12个。的确，东道主在这方面也比客队有优势!

就防守水平而言，东道主的优势甚至大于进球潜力。事实上，他们只丢了16个球。事实上，只有四支球队丢的球比我们少!我不得不提到鹿岛鹿角队的预期进球(xGA)比16大一点- 17.42。即便如此，他们的防守结构和防守态度都很好。本赛季发生了一些愚蠢的个人防守失误，但它们仍然很少。客队的防守漏洞百出，他们丢了27个球!他们在防守上犯了一些“滑稽”的错误，有时甚至在防守上看起来有点懒，尤其是在客场。只有两支球队丢了更多的球!他们可以在这方面有所提高，但我相信这需要时间，博彩公司应该更加重视这一点。如果看到东道主进两个以上的球，我不会感到震惊。我还想提一下，在德国一家知名的网站Transfermarkt.com上，东道主球员的市值明显高于客队球员的市值。它接近1900万欧元，这仍然太低了!有三家公司被低估了。Shonan Bellmare的球队价值约1140万英镑，这太高了。我估计这个数字在900万左右。在我看来，这四名球员并不值得他们的市场价值。当然，市场价值有时会误导人，但仍然很好地反映了球队在球场上的实际水平。总而言之，东道主已经

在游戏的所有领域都明显领先于Shonan Bellmare !在我的实力排名中，东道主排在第四位，这反映了球队的纯粹实力。客队本赛季的表现非常令人失望，因此我在季前赛的深度分析中降低了他们的能量评级。他们目前排名第15位，在18支球队中只拿到了可怜的12分。所有垫底的三支球队都有相同的积分。在撰写本文时，最大的博彩公司以最大的赌注限制提供了约2.00的赔率。然而，我预计聪明的钱会堆积在东道主身上，赔率会下降，除非有关阵容的关键新闻稍后出现。即使按照预期的阵容，东道主也有58%的获胜几率。

在客场比赛中，尚南贝尔梅尔的表现一直很弱，他们本赛季在J联赛中只赢了一场客场比赛。他们有时缺乏耐心传球的信心，在客场通常过于被动，而且在整场比赛中往往无法应对对手制造的压力。太多的防守——追球是很累人的。东道主最近非常强大，在最近的10场比赛中取得了7场胜利和3场平局!在最近的一场皇杯比赛中，他们在主场3-0击败了本田FC，成为明显的夺冠热门——博彩公司开出的在规定时间内获胜的赔率约为1.40。本田FC是一支小车队。在此之前，他们在客场面对一支强大的球队浦和红军(排名第五)，这是一场谨慎但高水平的比赛，他们显然处于劣势。然而，没有进球。比赛可能会有任何结果。鹿岛鹿角在xG中确实产生了更多- 0.56-0.39。在此之前，他们理应在客场战胜萨根·托苏。然而，在一场有趣的比赛之后，双方以2比2战平。客队在xG创造了2.21个进球，而东道主的数字是1.38。最近的12场比赛，尚南贝尔马只赢了一场。在4月、5月和这个月的J1联赛中，他们看起来信心不足。他们确实在周三的天皇杯比赛中以6比1击败了一支非常小的球队北海道BTOP，但没有人认为客队有任何机会。在周日的比赛之前，我很少强调这场比赛。在此之前，他们在主场与新潟阿尔比雷克斯打了一场不错的比赛，价格在2.10左右。两队的进球均为1.80，但客队创造了更多的进球尝试和射门机会，控球率也达到56%。尚南-贝尔梅尔需要有很大的进步，或者在周日的比赛中幸运地战胜一支强大得多的球队。

06月11日鹿岛鹿角 VS 湘南海洋比赛分析直播