Nagoya Grampus VS Avispa Fukuoka

Nagoya Grampus welcome Avispa Fukuoka for this Japanese J League round 17 clash at Toyota Stadium Sunday afternoon Beijing time. This is the first tier of Japanese football. Japan is the strongest football country – and this league is the best – in Asia. We can expect a match of mediocre level here by J League standards. My fans and I have won six games in a row betting on this league and 9/10 on Japanese football overall! I am convinced that we have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity here! Most of my fans are probably aware of the fact that I never let the standings fool me! Well, here the table does not actually lie as such, but the difference between the two teams by pure class and current level is, in fact, even bigger than the league table would reflect! Let's take a closer look..

The hosts currently occupy the 3rd place in the standings. Finishing in this place would bring them a ticket to the AFC Champions League qualification for next season. They have an impressive 32 points to their account. They have been even better than I expected in my sophisticated, in-depth preseason analysis that took me several days to write/calculate. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is actually even a little higher than the actual 32 – 33.14 to be precise. Last season they finished in 8th place with a respectable 46 points in their pocket. In my opinion they would have had potential for a better season. Indeed, at least three players did not reach even close to their best level.. Furthermore, they were unlucky in several balanced games – only taking a point when they would in many cases deserved -or at least had a very good chance – to win! In the 2021 season they finished in 5th place. Avispa Fukuoka, on the other hand, finished in 14th place with just 38 points and a bad score difference of 29:38. They only had a margin of two points to the relegation zone! The bookies do not seem to have fully realized how much the hosts have improved from last season and once again undervalue them! However, I would be a little surprised if they were to finish in the top-3. There are many strong teams in this league with bigger financial resources and better players – at least on paper – than Nagoya Grampus. Even so, they are definitely better than their squad's current market – according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com - would suggest! As for the visitors, the situation is the opposite. However, even the hosts' players' listed market value is bigger than that of the hosts'. The market values can, of course, sometimes be misleading but still pretty well illustrate the teams level on the pitch in real action. The hosts play very well as a team, as a tight unit and I also trust their coach tactically and as a leader. According to my sources they also have a very good team spirit!

The hosts have a clear edge over Avispa Fukuoka in all areas of the game! They are in 5th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. They have netted the ball 23 times in this league so far. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is higher- 26.12. Even so, their offense is not top-3 level in this league. Their defense on the other hand, has been even better than I would have expected before the season kicked off. Silly defensive mistakes are rare and the midfielders - and sometimes even the strikers, actively take part in defending. They have allowed just 13 goals in J League – which is the third-lowest number in the league. Yokohama Marinos, currently in second place with 33 points, have allowed 17 goals. Avispa Fukuoka occupy the 11th place but I have them only in the 15th place in the power rating. They have taken 20 points but their number of xPTS is just 16.23. Their offense lacks skill and creativity and they have scored just 16 goals – only the two rock-bottom teams have been more ineffective offensively. The home advantage here is substantial and taking this factor into account the hosts have a 62% chance of winning! Odds of around 1.85 are available on the betting market at the time of writing this analysis  on Friday. Avispa Fukuoka have been abysmal on the road – they have not won a single game away from home this season – losing four of the seven matches. They lack confidence  and are usually too passive away from home and often can't handle the pressure of the opponent for the full 90 minutes. The hosts have been impressive recently winning three games in a row. They scored eight goals in these games. The visitors, on the other hand, beat a small team, Imabari, who play in the J3 League (third level), 2-0 in their latest game - in an Emperor's Cup match. Before this they lost two games scoring just once..

名古屋格兰普斯VS福冈Avispa

北京时间周日下午，日本J联赛第17轮的比赛将在丰田体育场举行，名古屋格兰普斯队将迎来福冈队。这是日本足球的第一梯队。日本是亚洲最强的足球国家，这个联赛也是最好的。按照J联赛的标准，我们可以期待一场中等水平的比赛。我和我的球迷已经连续赢了六场联赛，并且以9/10的赔率赌日本足球!我相信我们还有另一个非常有利可图的赌博机会!我的大多数粉丝可能都知道，我从不让排名欺骗我!好吧，这里的排名实际上并不是这样的，但两支球队之间的纯粹等级和当前水平的差异，实际上甚至比排名所反映的还要大!让我们仔细看看……

东道主目前排名第三。在这个地方完成比赛将为他们带来下赛季亚冠资格的入场券。他们的账户上有令人印象深刻的32分。他们的表现甚至比我花了几天时间写的、深入的季前赛分析所预期的还要好。它们的期望值(xPTS)实际上比实际的32还要高一点——准确地说，是33.14。上赛季他们以可观的46分排名第8。在我看来，他们本可以有一个更好的赛季。事实上，至少有三名球员没有达到他们的最佳水平。此外，他们在几场平衡的比赛中运气不佳——在很多情况下，他们本应该获胜，或者至少有很好的机会获胜，但他们只拿了一分!在2021赛季，他们获得了第五名。另一方面，阿维斯帕·福冈仅以38分的成绩排在第14位，差了29分38秒。他们离降级区只有两分的差距!博彩公司似乎没有完全意识到东道主比上赛季进步了多少，又一次低估了他们!然而，如果他们最终进入前三名，我会有点惊讶。联赛中有很多强队拥有比名古屋更大的财力和更好的球员，至少在纸面上是这样。即便如此，根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的说法，他们绝对比目前的市场要好!至于游客，情况正好相反。然而，即使是东道主球员的上市市值也比东道主球员的上市市值大。当然，市场价值有时会被误导，但仍然很好地说明了球队在实际比赛中的水平。东道主作为一个整体踢得很好，作为一个紧密的整体，我也相信他们的教练在战术上和作为一个领导者。据我所知，他们也有很好的团队精神!

东道主在比赛的所有领域都明显领先于福冈!他们在我的力量排名中排名第五，这反映了球队的纯粹水平。到目前为止，他们在这个联赛中已经23次进球了。然而，他们的预期目标数量(xG)更高，为26.12。即便如此，他们的进攻也不是联盟前三的水平。另一方面，他们的防守比我在赛季开始前预期的还要好。愚蠢的防守失误很少，中场球员——有时甚至是前锋——积极参与防守。他们在J联赛中只丢了13个球，这是联赛第三低的数字。目前以33分排名第二的横滨马里诺斯队丢了17个球。Avispa Fukuoka占据了第11位，但我只把他们排在第15位。他们拿到了20分，但他们的得分只有16.23分。他们的进攻缺乏技巧和创造力，他们只进了16个球——只有两支垫底的球队在进攻上更无效。这里的主场优势是巨大的，考虑到这个因素，东道主有62%的获胜机会!在周五撰写这篇分析时，投注市场上的赔率约为1.85。福冈在客场表现糟糕，他们本赛季客场一场都没赢过，7场比赛输了4场。他们缺乏自信，在客场表现得过于被动，在90分钟内往往无法应对对手的压力。东道主最近连续赢得三场比赛，表现令人印象深刻。他们在这些比赛中进了八个球。另一方面，客队在最近的一场天皇杯比赛中，以2比0击败了J3联赛(第三级别)的小球队Imabari。在此之前，他们输了两场比赛，只得到0分