Udinese VS Juventus

Udinese welcome Juventus for this Italian Serie A round 38 battle at Dacia Arena in Udine early Monday morning Beijing time. This is the last round of play. Serie A is top-league by European standards – the fourth-best on the planet in my opinion. Football fans and us football bettors can expect a pretty entertaining match here. Udinese have nothing left to play this season and can play relaxed – trying to entertain and thank the home fans for their support throughout the season. They have had a mediocre season and are in 12th place with 46 points to their account. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is a little higher though. They have netted the ball 47 times in Serie A so far but have been lucky in terms of expected goals (xG) is 44.04. Juventus have scored 55 goals but their number of xG is 60.12. Indeed, Juventus have a clear edge in this area of the game. In terms of defensive quality the difference is even bigger! Udinese have conceded 47 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is much higher – 53.09. Juventus have one the best defenses in Serie A in my opinion. They have allowed just 33 goals so far. Even Inter, the UEFA Champions League finalists and the second-best team in Serie A, have allowed 42 goals. 143 421

The situation as such is pretty simple for Juventus ahead of this game. They need to win the game to have a chance to topple Roma and/or Atalanta. Roma are currently in 6th place with 60 points to their account. They have a tricky game ahead today against a very motivated team, Spezia, who are in a desperate fight against relegation. Finishing in 5th or 6th place would bring a ticket to the UEFA Europa League group stage for next season.. Atalanta (5th) have taken one more point than Roma so far. They face Monza today. Juventus currently have 59 points i their pocket. They have been penalized -10 points by federation decision. At first it was -15 then the penalty was canceled (!) and is now -10!  I want to mention things can sometimes be a little "messy" and unpredictable in Italian football, so it is not 100% sure that the penalty will not be modified – once again..  Juventus are a massive club and have a lot of influence in the Italian football scene where shady things sometimes happen.. I believe the players will do their very best here and see after the game if it was enough or not to place in the top-6..  When betting on the last round of Serie A it is important to realize that if points are tied at the end of the competition, head-to-head matches will be the tie-breaker.

According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com Juventus squad has a total market value of only around 421 million euros which is a little too high though! Udinese are a much smaller club "on paper” and their players are valued at approximately 143 million  - which is marginally too low in my opinion though.. The total market value can, of course, sometimes be misleading but is still a relatively good indicator of a team's level in real action on the pitch! The football (player) market is, after all, a global one.. The biggest, usually somewhat smart bookmakers, football journalists/analysts and particularly professional football bettors pay increasingly more attention to teams' total market values these days. Taking the massive edge in motivation Juventus have an over 65% chance to take all three points. Odds around 1.70 are available on them to win on the betting market. Udinese have been weak lately losing three games in a row. They faced a lowly team, Salernitana, in their most recent match losing 2-3 away from home as favorites according to the bookies – priced around 2.45 to win. This is just another example of them being overrated on the betting market! The match was pretty balanced though. Udinese looked very lazy offensively  at times especially in the second half. They recorded just 22 dangerous attacks in this game. The hosts, on the other hand, recorded much more -  59 to be precise. Some Udinese players did not look fully motivated and I do not fully trust their coach to prepare and motivate the players 100% - or perhaps  even 80%  here. Juventus have not won any of their latest three games but were unlucky in their latest game against Inter at home losing 0-1. They recorded many more goal attempts, shots off goal, attacks and dangerous attacks. They also generated much more in xG – 1.12 - 0.49 to be precise. Before this they lost to Empoli away from home and were unarguably disappointing.  This result probably affects the odds too much here.. Empoli, however, played much better than normally! The final score is very misleading as Juventus had 61% ball possession and created many more shots on goal, shots off goal, attacks and dangerous attacks. They also generated a little more in xG – 2.45 – 2.32.

乌迪内斯VS尤文图斯

北京时间周一凌晨，乌迪内斯欢迎尤文图斯参加意甲联赛第38轮的比赛。这是最后一轮比赛了。按照欧洲的标准，意甲是顶级联赛，在我看来是这个星球上第四好的联赛。足球迷和我们的足球投注者可以期待一场非常有趣的比赛。乌迪内斯本赛季已经没有什么比赛了，他们可以放松地比赛——试着娱乐并感谢主场球迷整个赛季的支持。他们本赛季表现平平，目前以46分排名第12位。不过，它们的期望值(xPTS)略高一些。迄今为止，他们在意甲联赛中取得了47次进球，但在期望进球数(xG)方面却很幸运，只有44.04个。尤文图斯打进了55球，但是他们的xG值是60.12。的确，尤文图斯在这个领域有明显的优势。在防守质量方面，差距甚至更大!乌迪内斯丢了47个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)要高得多，为53.09个。在我看来，尤文图斯的防守是意甲最好的之一。到目前为止，他们只丢了33个球。即使是国际米兰，欧洲冠军联赛决赛和意甲第二好的球队，也丢了42个球。143 421

对于尤文图斯来说，在这场比赛之前的情况很简单。他们需要赢下这场比赛，才有机会击败罗马或者亚特兰大。罗马目前以60分排名第六。今天他们将面临一场棘手的比赛，对手是一支非常有动力的球队，斯佩齐亚，他们正在为保级而战。排在第5或第6名就能获得下赛季欧联杯小组赛的入场券。亚特兰大(第五)目前比罗马多拿了一分。他们今天将面对蒙扎。尤文图斯目前已经拿到了59分。根据联合会的决定，他们被扣掉10分。起初是-15，然后罚分被取消(!)，现在是-10!我想说的是，在意大利足球中，事情有时会有点“混乱”和不可预测，所以不能100%确定点球不会被修改——再一次……尤文图斯是一家伟大的俱乐部，在意大利足球界有很大的影响力，有时会发生一些阴暗的事情。我相信球员们会在这里尽自己最大的努力，在比赛结束后看看他们是否能够进入前6名。在下注意甲最后一轮时，重要的是要意识到，如果在比赛结束时积分相等，那么正面交锋将是决胜局。

根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，尤文图斯队的总市值只有大约4.21亿欧元，这有点太高了!乌迪内斯是一家“纸面上”小得多的俱乐部，他们的球员价值约为1.43亿美元——在我看来这个数字太低了。当然，总市值有时可能会被误导，但仍然是球队在球场上实际行动水平的一个相对较好的指标!足球(球员)市场毕竟是一个全球性的市场。如今，最大的、通常有些精明的博彩公司、足球记者/分析师，尤其是职业足球投注者，越来越关注球队的总市值。凭借巨大的动力优势，尤文图斯有超过65%的机会拿到全部三分。在博彩市场上，他们赢得比赛的赔率约为1.70。乌迪内斯最近表现不佳，连输三场。在最近的一场比赛中，他们面对的是一支实力较弱的球队Salernitana，根据博彩公司的预测，他们在客场以2比3输掉了比赛，胜率在2.45左右。这只是他们在博彩市场上被高估的又一个例子!不过这场比赛还是相当平衡的。乌迪内斯在进攻上显得很懒散，尤其是在下半场。他们在这场比赛中只记录了22次危险进攻。另一方面，主持人录得更多——准确地说是59。一些乌迪内斯球员看起来并没有充分的动力，我也不完全相信他们的教练会100%的准备和激励球员——也许在这里甚至是80%。尤文图斯在最近的三场比赛中没有赢过一场，但在最近主场0-1输给国米的比赛中运气不佳。他们记录了更多的进球尝试、射门、进攻和危险进攻。准确地说，它们在xG - 1.12 - 0.49中也产生了更多。在此之前，他们客场输给了恩波利，毫无疑问令人失望。这个结果可能对这里的赔率影响太大了。然而，恩波利踢得比平时好得多!最后的比分很容易误导人，因为尤文图斯的比分是61%