AS Roma vs Spezia

Roma host Spezia for this Italian Serie A round 38 battle at Stadio Olimpico in Rome early Monday morning Beijing time. This is the last round of play. Serie A is top-league by European standards – the fourth-best in the world in my opinion. Napoli, AS Milan and Inter Milan all did very well in the UEFA Champions League this season, Football fans and us football bettors cannot expect an entertaining match here. On the contrary I expect an anxious game with lots of emotions here.. Indeed, several bookings - or even a red card would not be a surprise at all. The stakes are sky-high here. Roma are fighting for the UEFA Europa League group stage ticket here. The teams who finish 5th and 6th qualify for this second-highest UEFA competition. The situation as such is pretty simple for Roma – win the game and they should finish at least in 6th place. They could, however, finish in 6th place even if they were to lose this game. Atalanta (5th) have taken one more point than Roma so far. The team chasing them is Juventus who currently have 59 points to their account. They were penalized -10 points by federation decision. At first it was -15m then the penalty was canceled and is now -10!  I want to mention things can sometimes be a little messy and unpredictable In Italian football, so it is not 100% sure that the penalty will not be modified – once again.. Juventus are a massive club and have a lot of influence in the Italian football scene.. When betting on the last round of Serie A it is important to realize that if points are tied at the end of the competition, head-to-head matches will be the tie-breaker. I believe Roma will be aggressive – untypically for Jose Mourinho's team - here right from the kickoff and put big pressure on the visitors defense. Juventus are solid favorites in their game tomorrow away from home against Udinese who have nothing left to play and have lost three games in a row in Serie A. I want to highlight that Roma would have deserved a total of 69.12 in terms of expected points (xPTS). With this number of points they would be in third place in the standings.

 Roma have netted the ball ”only” 48 goals in this league this season but have been massively unlucky in terms of expected goals (xG). They would have deserved 62 or 63 goals! Typically for Jose Mourinho's – who is known as ”the master of defensive football ”- team Roma's defense has been very solid this season. Indeed, they have allowed 37 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA is just 30.12. For example the Champions League finalists, Inter Milan, have allowed 42 goals..I would not be at all surprised if Spezia were to fail to score here.. Yes, they too, have a loty to play for here. They are in 17th place in the standings with 31 points in their pocket. Their number of xPTS is somewhat higher though. Even so, they cannot match Roma in any area of the game. The teams who finish 18-20th will be relegated to Serie B for next season. Verona (18th) have the same 31 points to their account. Indeed, Verona's number of points decides how many points Spezia need here.. If Verona lead their game tomorrow Spezia will have to take massive risks as they would, in this scenario need to win.. Spezia have beaten Verona once this season and the other game was a draw. Indeed, if Verona lose a draw would be enough for them here.. However, their defense has been so leaky that I do not expect them to be able to stop Roma's world-class offensive players! 

Spezia have allowed a whopping 60 goals so far! Let's hope Roma scores the necessary goal/goals in the first half. Roma are usually very strong when they get the lead – especially against lowly teams like Spezia. Spezia were abysmal in their most recent game losing 0-4 at home to Torino as favorites according to the bookmakers. The visitors recorded more goal attempts (11-8) and shots on goal (4-1). They also generated more in xG. Roma lost the UEFA Europa League final on Wednesday in Budapest to Sevilla after penalties. They only had 36% ball possession – which was not a surprise as Mourinho most probably wanted his team to let Sevilla control the ball for most of the time.. It was a pretty balanced battle but Roma did record much more in xG than Sevilla – 2.34 – 0.96 to be precise. This loss surely depresses the Roma players but they are experienced and mentally strong and I believe the bookmakers give this loss too much emphasis.. In fact, as they lost they have big motivation against Spezia! If they had won they would have earned a ticket to the Champions League for next season – and would have no motivation here. Roma will be missing Karsdorp and Kumbulla – Spezia are without Beck, Holm, Moutinho, Sala and Zowko. Caldara's situation is unclear at the time of writing this preview. Roma have a 59% chance of winning this game!

罗马vs斯佩齐亚

北京时间周一凌晨，罗马队将在罗马奥林匹克球场迎战斯佩齐亚队，进行意甲第38轮比赛。这是最后一轮比赛了。意甲是欧洲顶级联赛，在我看来是世界第四。那不勒斯，AS米兰和国际米兰都在本赛季的欧洲冠军联赛中表现出色，足球迷和美国足球投注者不能期望在这里看到一场有趣的比赛。相反，我期待的是一场充满各种情绪的焦虑比赛。事实上，几张黄牌，甚至一张红牌都不会让人感到意外。这里的风险极高。罗马正在为欧联杯小组赛的入场券而战。排名第五和第六的球队有资格参加这项欧足联第二高的比赛。这样的情况对罗马来说很简单——赢下这场比赛，他们至少应该以第六名结束比赛。然而，即使他们输掉这场比赛，他们也可能以第六名结束比赛。亚特兰大(第五)目前比罗马多拿了一分。追赶他们的是尤文图斯，目前他们的积分是59分。根据联合会的决定，他们被扣掉10分。起初是-15米，然后被取消了，现在是-10米!我想说的是，在意大利足球中，事情有时会有点混乱和不可预测，所以不能100%确定点球不会被修改——再一次……尤文图斯是一家伟大的俱乐部，在意大利足坛有很大的影响力。在下注意甲最后一轮时，重要的是要意识到，如果在比赛结束时积分相等，那么正面交锋将是决胜局。我相信罗马会很有侵略性——这对穆里尼奥的球队来说是不寻常的——从开球开始就会给客队的防守带来很大的压力。尤文图斯是明天客场对阵乌迪内斯的大热门，乌迪内斯在意甲联赛中已经连输三场。我想强调的是，罗马本可以得到69.12分的期望积分。有了这个积分，他们将排在积分榜的第三位。

罗马本赛季在联赛中“只”打进48球，但在预期进球(xG)方面非常不走运。他们应该得到62或63个进球!对于被称为“防守足球大师”的穆里尼奥来说，罗马本赛季的防守非常稳固。事实上，他们丢了37个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)只有30.12个。比如欧冠决赛的国际米兰，他们丢了42个球，如果斯佩齐亚在这里没有进球，我一点也不惊讶。是的，他们在这里也有自己的目标。他们目前在积分榜上排名第17位，积31分。不过，它们的xpt数量要高一些。即便如此，他们在比赛的任何领域都无法与罗马匹敌。排名18-20的球队下赛季将被降级到乙级。维罗纳(第18)同样得到31分。事实上，维罗纳的得分决定了斯佩齐亚在这里需要多少分。如果维罗纳明天领先，斯佩齐亚将不得不承担巨大的风险，在这种情况下，他们需要赢。本赛季斯佩齐亚只击败过维罗纳一次，另外一场比赛是平局。事实上，如果维罗纳输了，一场平局对他们来说就足够了。然而，他们的防守漏洞百出，我不认为他们能够阻止罗马的世界级进攻球员!

到目前为止，斯佩齐亚已经丢了60个球!让我们希望罗马能在上半场打进必要的进球。当罗马取得领先时，他们通常都很强大，尤其是面对像斯佩齐亚这样的低水平球队。根据博彩公司的数据，斯佩齐亚在最近的一场比赛中表现糟糕，在主场以0比4输给了都灵。客队的进球次数(11比8)和射正次数(4比1)都更多。他们在xG中也产生了更多。周三在布达佩斯举行的欧联杯决赛中，罗马在点球大战中输给了塞维利亚。他们只有36%的控球率——这并不奇怪，因为穆里尼奥很可能希望他的球队在大部分时间里让塞维利亚控制球。这是一场相当平衡的战斗，但罗马在g上的记录比塞维利亚多得多——2.34比0.96。这场失利肯定会让罗马球员感到沮丧，但他们经验丰富，精神强大，我认为博彩公司过于强调这场失利了。事实上，当他们输掉比赛时，他们对斯佩齐亚有很大的动力!如果他们赢了，他们将赢得下赛季欧冠的入场券——在这里他们就没有动力了。罗马将失去卡尔斯多普和昆布拉，斯佩齐亚将失去贝克、霍尔姆、穆蒂尼奥、萨拉和佐科。C