First leg of Bundesliga playoffs, the 2nd is on Monday in Hamburg.

The big question here is how well HSV have emotionally recovered from the last match celebrations, as they thought they had already promoted, but in the other key game Heidenheim scored two goals on added time to steal the promotion position. HSV have been all their seasons in the 2nd Bundesliga very close to promotion, they have always been one of the favourites, but never it has been this close.

People in general are expecting a goalfest here which makes sense if we look at the amounts of goals the teams have seen this season, and for example Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet only twice all season. It is also the main reason why they in this mess now, as the performance-data sees them as high as 8th best team in the league, and definitely they are extraordinarily good team to be in a relegation fight.

Yet, it is the actual goals and points that matter, and despite having expected points worth of 47 they only collected 33. They play well, but failing in both boxes all season can not only be bad luck, it is also incompetence and mental weakness, and at this point there is no room for shaky nerves.

At home Stuttgart won 5 of their 17 games, they were 4th weakest, and not even the xG flatters them at all, it is on their travels where they have performed most brilliantly.

To sum it up, the defense have let Stuttgart down, and it all showed badly in their latest match where they still held on to survival, but let Hoffenheim to take the lead at 74th minutes after some seriously bad defending. A win would have kept them afloat, now they ended up in a 1-1 draw after a good effort especially in the last 30 minutes, so Stuttgart have some psychological baggage here as well.

HSV scored 70 goals this season, Robert Glatzel was 2nd best scorer with his 19 goals and 7 assists, and the 1.93 cm tall will be a constant threat to weak Stuttgart defense.

Money-wise the Stuttgart team is 3 times more expensive than HSV, but I believe that the importance of this first leg shows in the pace and willingness not to risk, and this will be a dull and low-scoring affair. 1-1. Below last 5 games of both teams.

27.5.2023, VFB STUTTGART – HOFFENHEIM, 1-1

21.5.2023, MAINZ – VFB STUTTGART, 1-4

14.5.2023, VFB STUTTGART – BAYER LEVERKUSEN, 1-1

6.5.2023, HERTHA BERLIN – VFB STUTTGART, 2-1

3.5.2023, VFB STUTTGART – EINTRACHT FRANKFURT (CUP), 2-3

******

28.5.2023, SANDHAUSEN – HSV, 0-1

20.5.2023, HSV – GREUTHER FÜRTH, 2-1

14.5.2023, JAHN REGENSBURG – HSV, 1-5

5.5.2023, HSV – PADERBORN, 2-2

29.4.2023, FC MAGDEBURG – HSV, 3-2

德甲季后赛第一回合，第二回合将于周一在汉堡举行。

这里最大的问题是HSV从上一场比赛的庆祝活动中恢复得如何，因为他们以为自己已经晋级，但在另一场关键比赛中，海登海姆在补时阶段连进两球，偷走了晋级的位置。HSV在德甲的所有赛季都非常接近升级，他们一直是最受欢迎的球队之一，但从来没有这么接近过。

人们普遍期待着一场进球盛宴，这是有道理的，如果我们看看球队本赛季的进球数，比如斯图加特整个赛季只有两次保持零封。这也是他们现在陷入困境的主要原因，因为他们的表现数据显示他们在联赛中排名第八，而且在保级战中他们绝对是一支非常优秀的球队。

然而，真正重要的是实际进球和积分，尽管他们的预期积分是47分，但他们只拿到了33分。他们踢得很好，但整个赛季在两个方面都失败不仅可能是运气不好，也可能是无能和精神上的弱点，在这一点上没有动摇的余地。

在主场，斯图加特赢了17场比赛中的5场，他们是第4弱的，甚至连xG都不能恭维他们，他们在客场表现得最出色。

总而言之，防守让斯图加特失望了，这在他们最近的比赛中表现得很糟糕，他们仍然保住了生存，但在第74分钟，霍芬海姆在防守糟糕的情况下取得了领先。一场胜利会让他们继续保持下去，现在他们在最后30分钟的努力后以1-1战平，所以斯图加特在这里也有一些心理包袱。

HSV本赛季打进70球，罗伯特·格拉策尔以19球和7次助攻排名射手榜第二，1.93厘米的身高将持续威胁斯图加特薄弱的防线。

在金钱方面，斯图加特的球队比HSV贵3倍，但我相信第一回合的重要性体现在节奏和不冒险的意愿上，这将是一场沉闷和低得分的比赛。1 - 1。以下是两队最近的5场比赛。

2023年5月27日，斯图加特1-1霍芬海姆

21.5.2023，美因茨-斯图加特VFB, 1-4

2023年5月14日，斯图加特1-1勒沃库森

6.5.2023，柏林赫塔-斯图加特2-1

3.5.2023，斯图加特-法兰克福杯赛，2-3

* * * * * *

28.5.2023, sandhausen - hsv, 0-1

20.5.2023, HSV - grether fÜrth, 2-1

14.5.2023，约翰雷根斯堡- hsv, 1-5

5.5.2023, HSV -帕德伯恩，2-2

2023年4月29日，马格德堡- hsv fc, 3-2