Internacional VS America MG

Internacional and America MG lock horns in this Copa do Brasil (Brazilian Cup) second leg battle at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda in Porto Alegre Thursday morning Beijing time. I expect a relatively entertaining and high-level match here as the Brazilian Serie A is the best league in South America and is of somewhat high level by global standards. However, I expect America MG to be pretty defensive here. They won the first leg 2-0 and fully deserved to win! Today they can, of course, even lose by a margin of one goal and still qualify! I see this match as more low-scoring than the betting market does. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 55%. The visitors have an excellent chance to avoid losing by more than a one goal difference. They will probably heavily rely on counter attacks, corner kicks, free kicks - or a possible penalty to score against a strong opponent. They can, in fact, be very dangerous on counter attacks – especially if Internacional have to increase the risk level in the second half to score at two - or even more goals they need here.. America MG were clear underdogs according to the bookies in the first leg – yet another example of them being undervalued. The hosts are, of course, the better team but I would not be shocked if America MG were to win this game! I see the hosts having a 52-53% chance to win with today's expected lineups but the biggest, often pretty sharp bookies that offer the biggest limits price the hosts only around 1.55 to win and this is way too low! America MG did record many more goal attempts in the first leg – 13-6 to be precise. They also had more dangerous attacks and shots off goal. Internacional did have 58% ball possession though and both teams had five shots on target.

Both teams have had a very disappointing start the the Serie A. Internacional finished in second place last season but are now in 13th place at the moment with 10 points – after eight rounds of play. Internacional's number of expected points (xPTS) is just 9.03. Their score difference is bad – 7:11. Their strikers should be much more creative and pass the ball faster. They will surely improve especially in this area of the game but I think it will take time.. The bookies seem to give their potential too much emphasis. They did beat Bahia in their most recent match 2-o at home but it was not a good performance. They only recorded a pathetic 0.21 in expected goals as clear favorites according to the bookies – priced around 2.05 to win. The visitors recorded many more shots on and off goal, goal attempts, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. America MG are in 19th place in the standings with just four points to their account. Yes, they have not been impressive but they, too, will surely improve as the season progresses. Their defense has been leaky and they have conceded 20 goals. Silly defensive mistakes have been a big problem. However, their number of goals allowed (xGA) is still ”only” 14.16. I also want to mention that their xPTS is 7.87. They were bad in their most recent game losing to Botafogo 0-2 away from home but have still won two of their latest five games – the hosts, in fact, have a similar record..

国际VS美国MG

北京时间周四上午，在阿雷格里港举行的巴西杯次回合比赛中，国际队和美洲队将在Estádio球场展开激战。我希望这是一场相对有趣和高水平的比赛，因为巴西甲级联赛是南美洲最好的联赛，以全球标准来看是高水平的。然而，我预计美国MG在这方面会很有防御性。他们2-0赢了第一回合，他们完全配得上这场胜利!当然，今天他们甚至可以以一球之差输掉比赛，仍然可以出线!我认为这场比赛比赌博市场上的比分更低。总进球数少于2.5个的概率为55%。客队有一个极好的机会避免以一球以上的差距输球。他们可能会严重依赖反击、角球、任意球——或者可能的点球来对付强大的对手。事实上，他们在反击中是非常危险的——特别是如果国际队不得不在下半场增加风险来进两个球——或者他们需要更多的球……根据博彩公司在第一回合的说法，美国MG显然处于劣势——这是他们被低估的又一个例子。当然，东道主是更好的球队，但如果美国赢得这场比赛，我也不会感到震惊!我看到东道主有52-53%的机会赢得今天的预期阵容，但最大的，通常是非常敏锐的博彩公司提供最大的限制价格，东道主只有1.55左右的胜利，这是太低了!美国MG在第一回合的进球次数更多，准确地说是13比6。他们也有更多危险的进攻和射门。国际队的控球率为58%，两队均有5次射正。

这两支球队的开局都非常令人失望，上赛季意甲国际队排名第二，但在经过8轮比赛后，目前以10分排名第13。国际的预期点数(xPTS)仅为9.03。他们的比分差很大，7:11。他们的前锋应该更有创造力，传球更快。他们肯定会进步的，尤其是在这个领域，但我认为这需要时间。博彩公司似乎过于强调他们的潜力。他们在最近的主场比赛中2比0击败了巴伊亚，但表现并不好。根据博彩公司的数据，他们的预期进球数只有可怜的0.21，胜率在2.05左右。客队的射门次数、进球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都有所增加。美国MG仅以4分排名第19位。是的，他们并没有给人留下深刻的印象，但他们也肯定会随着赛季的进展而进步。他们的防守漏洞百出，丢了20个球。愚蠢的防守失误是一个大问题。然而，他们的失球数(xGA)仍然“只有”14.16个。我还想提一下，他们的xPTS是7.87。他们在最近一场客场0-2负于博塔弗戈的比赛中表现不佳，但在最近的五场比赛中仍然赢了两场——事实上，东道主也有类似的战绩。