Sevilla vs Roma

Sevilla and Roma lock horns in this UEFA Europa League final at Puskás Aréna in Budapest, the capital of Hungary, early Thursday morning Beijing time. The stakes are massive here as both a lot of money is at stake for both clubs and possibly for the players as well – dependinging on their contracts. I also want to highlight that the winner earns a ticket for the UEFA Champions League group stage for next season. Sevilla are a Spanish team and Roma, of course, come from Italy. I expect an anxious and defensive clash here. Roma's legendary coach, Jose Mourinho is known worldwide for his defensive tactics – sometimes even called ”antifootball”. I see the match as more low-scoring and the draw as a more probable result than the betting market does. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is clearly over 70%. Furthermore, the chance of a draw is extremely high compared to a normal LaLiga or Serie A game – 36%. The finals are often cautious football and risks are avoided even if the other team takes the lead by a margin of one goal. Both teams are, of course, big European teams with great players but entertainment-wise I think many football fans will be a little disappointed here..Most importantly though, I think we have yet another lucrative betting opportunity here! Sevilla have won this competition a whopping four times! What an amazing record! They started the season poorly and were near the relegation zone in the LaLiga standings. This was not a complete surprise , however, as they lost some key defenders after last season. They also played in the UEFA Champions League but the results were not very impressive. There were two tough opponents in the group though - for example the best team in the World. This spring they improved massively and climbed up the standings finishing in 11th place – just one point behind Osasuna who ended up in 7th place. They grabbed 49 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) was higher. Their team spirit is, according to my sources, very good at the moment. I also trust their coach who took over the team midseason.

Sevilla netted the ball 46 times but their number of expected goals (xG) was 51.12. In the Europa League they have been impressive beating Juventus in the semi-finals and did deserve to qualify in the end. Juventus were penalised 10 points by a federation decision in Serie A but are definitely a better team than Roma! Before beating Juventus they defeated a much-improved from last season Manchester United. In Spain they were dominant winning 3-0. They created a whopping 20 goal attempts and generated 2.34 in xG. ManU, who were clear favorites in the betting market priced around 2.10 to win in Seville, recorded only 0.89 in xG. Sevilla have looked better than Roma on the pitch lately. The Italians have not won any of their latest four games. Sevilla have gone without a win for three games now but were unlucky in their latest game against Real Madrid at home losing 1-2. They created many more goal attempts 11-6 and generated 1.23 in xG - Real, the reigning Spanish and Champions League champions, recorded just 0.54. Roma were lucky to qualify over German Bayern Leverkusen in the previous round on 1-0 on aggregate. In the second leg Leverkusen dominated the game completely with 23-1 goal attempts and 6-0 shots on target, They also had 10 shots off goal. Roma recorded just 0.03 in xG! This is an incredibly low number! Let's not forget that Roma only beat Finnish HJK, avery small team, 2-1 in Helsinki in the group phase and secured their place in the Play Offs only in the last round! The biggest, often rather smart bookies that accept the biggest stakes offer odds Roma odds of around 2.70 to win during the 90 minutes of play here. I cannot agree – Sevilla are narrow favorites here!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

塞维利亚vs罗马

北京时间周四凌晨，在匈牙利首都布达佩斯举行的欧洲杯决赛中，塞维利亚和罗马在Puskás ar<s:1> na球场展开了激烈的角逐。这里的利害关系是巨大的，因为无论是对俱乐部还是对球员来说，都是一大笔钱，这取决于他们的合同。我还想强调的是，获胜者将获得下赛季欧冠小组赛的入场券。塞维利亚是一支西班牙球队，而罗马当然来自意大利。我预计这里会有一场激烈的防御冲突。罗马的传奇教练何塞·穆里尼奥以他的防守战术闻名于世——有时甚至被称为“反足球”。我认为这场比赛比分更低，平局的可能性也比博彩市场更大。总进球数少于2.5个的概率显然超过了70%。此外，与一场普通的西甲或意甲比赛相比，平局的几率非常高，为36%。决赛通常是谨慎的足球，即使另一支球队领先一球，也会避免风险。当然，这两支球队都是拥有伟大球员的欧洲豪门球队，但从娱乐角度来看，我想许多球迷会有点失望，但最重要的是，我认为我们还有另一个有利可图的赌博机会!塞维利亚已经四次赢得这项赛事了!多么惊人的记录啊!他们本赛季开局不佳，在西甲积分榜上接近降级区。然而，这并不完全出人意料，因为他们在上赛季之后失去了一些关键的后卫。他们也参加了欧洲冠军联赛，但结果并不令人印象深刻。小组中有两个劲敌，比如世界上最好的球队。今年春天，他们取得了巨大的进步，排名上升到第11位，仅比排在第7位的奥萨苏纳落后1分。虽然拿到了49分，但他们的期望值(xPTS)更高。根据我的消息来源，他们的团队精神目前非常好。我也信任他们的教练，他在赛季中期接手了球队。

塞维利亚有46次进球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)为51.12。在欧联杯中，他们在半决赛中击败了尤文图斯，表现令人印象深刻，最终晋级是理所应当的。尤文图斯在意甲联赛中被足协罚了10分，但他们绝对是一支比罗马更好的球队!在击败尤文图斯之前，他们击败了比上赛季进步很多的曼联。在西班牙，他们以3比0获胜。他们创造了惊人的20次进球机会，在比赛中创造了2.34个进球。在塞维利亚的比赛中，马努的胜率在2.10左右，在博彩市场上很受欢迎，但在去年的比赛中，马努的胜率仅为0.89。塞维利亚最近在球场上看起来比罗马好。意大利人在最近的四场比赛中没有赢过一场。塞维利亚已经三场未胜，但在最近主场与皇马的比赛中不幸以1-2落败。他们创造了更多的进球机会，11比6，在xG创造了1.23个进球，而西班牙卫冕冠军和欧冠冠军皇马只有0.54个进球。罗马在上一轮比赛中幸运地以总比分1-0击败德国拜仁勒沃库森出线。在第二回合比赛中，勒沃库森以23-1的射门次数和6-0的射正次数完全控制了比赛，他们还有10次射偏。罗马在比赛中只得到0.03分!这是一个非常低的数字!别忘了，罗马在小组赛阶段只在赫尔辛基以2-1击败了一支非常小的球队芬兰HJK，直到最后一轮才获得附加赛的席位!最大的，通常相当聪明的博彩公司接受最大的赌注，在90分钟的比赛中，罗马的赔率约为2.70。我不同意-塞维利亚在这里是微弱的热门!

06月01日塞维利亚 VS 罗马比赛分析直播