Quick words as this is wrongly priced!
2021-04-03
比赛分析
解读理由
Looking at the actual table it might be easy to think that these teams would be rather equal in class with optimal lineups and motivation, but it is not the case.
Both are still in the Europa League, for Granada it is still a new and exciting adventure and they are awaiting for Manchester Utd, for Villarreal it is business as usual and their opponent is less interesting and weaker side, Dynamo Zagreb.
Granada recent results with xG-numbers:
Two wins in last 7, both in very even games. Most worrying of these latest performances was the trip to Valencia, or perhaps the match away at Huesca? In the actual league table Granada are 8th, only 4 points from Villarreal and safe from relegation, also too far from European positions. The xG actually suggests that the gap between these two should be 20 points, such is a difference in luck.
Granada are the team with most games played of all Spanish teams, they are also one of the most injured teams and in some of the games they have had really weak lineups with +35 year old veterans doing all the running. Yes, the atmosphere within the team is excellent, the quality and quantity just is not there, and their priority for the remains of the season are the Europa League.
So I am expecting no risks from coach Martinez here. He wants to save players from injuries and exhaustion.
Luis Javier Suarez, Luis Milla, Neyder Lozano, Dimitri Foulquier, Alberto Soro, and Carlos Neva are at least likely not featuring today.
Villarreal have ruined their domestic season with 13 draws, some key injuries have not helped either, but now they might be on an improving trendline again, and most importantly there are only long-term injuries left from the key men.
In my books Granada are no better than Eibar or Cadiz who have been destroyed lately by Villarreal. There is a lot of motivation in the league left for Villarreal, and class-wise they are several steps ahead of the best possible Granada side, and today it is not the case. Villarreal are +50 % favourites to win!
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