Independiente VS Lanus

Independiente host Lanus for this Argentina Liga Pro round 18 clash at Estadio Libertadores de América in Avellaneda. This league is of surprisingly low level taking into account what a great football country Argentina is. By Liga Pro standards we can expect a mediocre level game here between these two teams. Most importantly, however, we have a lucrative betting opportunity here. Lanus currently occupy the 7th place in the standings where a total of 28 clubs play. Lanus have a clear edge over Independiente in all areas of the game. I must strongly disagree with the biggest, often somewhat smart bookies that accept the biggest betting limits. Even with today's expected lineups these bookies see the hosts as favorites here offering them odds of around 2.70 to take all three points. Independiente will be without Barrato, Marcone. Marques De Meneses, Mulet, Rambert and Salle. Lanus will be missing Acosta, Aguirre and Canale Dominguez. Lanus have 28 points to their account at the moment. Their number of expected points is, in fact, a little lower so it is perhaps a little surprising that they are undervalued on the betting market here.. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis in-depth analysis they deserve to be solid favorites. We will go with the +0.5 goals handicap in this match that I expect to be more low-scoring and where the draw is an even more probable result than the bookies seem to estimate.. The fact that Independiente are over-valued is probably mainly based on their potential. Yes, I do expect them from the current 25th place but it is not realistic to think that they would improve their level significantly any time soon.. Thay have just 17 points in their pocket. The bookies seem to give the hosts' potential too much emphasis. Even if they were to play a good game here it would quite possibly not be enough to win against a strong opponent.

 Let's not forget that especially in terms of offensive quality Lanus have a big edge as they have scored 23 goals. This is significantly more than for example San Lorenzo, currently in 2nd place! Their defense does, however, have some vulnerabilities – Lanus are sometimes even too aggressive offensive which leads to an imbalance in the midfield and defense. As a result the opponent sometimes gets too many chances for dangerous counter attacks. However, I believe Independiente will not be able to create too many promising scoring chances here.. Their offense has been lame despite them scoring 16 goals in Liga Pro so far. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is just 12.14 goals. They have won just three games in this league so far. They have improved from early season but were disappointing in their most recent game losing to a lowly team, Arsenal Sarandi, 1-2 away from home. They were clear favorites in this game – priced around 2.00 to win on the betting market I also want to mention that according to a very well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Independiente players have a total market value of just around 17 million euros. In my opinion this is too high. I would set the number at around 15 million.. The visitors' players have a total market value of approximately 33 million which is too low. Lanus have been in great form lately losing just one of their most recent eight games!

独立VS Lanus

阿根廷职业联赛第18轮的比赛将在阿韦亚内达的解放者体育场举行，阿根廷独立队主场迎战拉努斯队。考虑到阿根廷是一个伟大的足球国家，这个联赛的水平低得惊人。按照职业联赛的标准，我们可以期待这两支球队之间的一场平庸的比赛。然而，最重要的是，我们有一个有利可图的赌博机会。拉努斯目前在共有28家俱乐部参加的积分榜上排名第七。Lanus在游戏的所有领域都比independdiente有明显的优势。我必须强烈反对最大的，通常有些聪明的赌徒接受最大的投注限制。即使在今天的预期阵容中，这些博彩公司也认为东道主是最受欢迎的，他们提供了2.70左右的赔率来获得所有三分。独立集团将失去巴拉托和马尔科尼。梅内塞斯侯爵，穆莱侯爵，朗贝尔侯爵和萨尔侯爵。拉努斯将失去阿科斯塔、阿吉雷和多明格斯。拉努斯目前在他们的账户上有28分。事实上，他们的预期得分要低一些，所以他们在这里的博彩市场上被低估可能有点令人惊讶。基于我成熟的，强烈的基于数据的分析，深入的分析，他们应该是坚实的最爱。我们将在这场比赛中使用+0.5的进球障碍，我预计比分会更低，平局的可能性甚至比博彩公司估计的还要大。独立游戏被高估的事实可能主要是基于它们的潜力。是的，我确实希望他们能从目前的第25名上升，但认为他们会很快显著提高水平是不现实的。他们现在只有17分。博彩公司似乎过于强调东道主的潜力。即使他们在这里打得很好，也很可能不足以战胜一个强大的对手。

我们不要忘记，特别是在进攻质量方面，拉努斯有很大的优势，因为他们已经进了23个球。这比目前排名第二的圣洛伦索(San Lorenzo)要多得多!然而，他们的防守确实有一些弱点——拉努斯有时甚至过于激进，导致中场和防守的不平衡。因此，对手有时会有太多的机会进行危险的反击。然而，我相信独立队不会在这里创造太多有希望的得分机会。尽管他们在西甲联赛中打进了16球，但他们的进攻却很差劲。然而，他们的预期进球数(xG)只有12.14个。到目前为止，他们在这个联赛中只赢了三场。他们比赛季初有所进步，但在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场1-2输给了一支实力较弱的球队阿森纳。在这场比赛中，他们显然是最受欢迎的——在博彩市场上，他们的价格约为2.00欧元。我还想提一下，根据一家非常知名和受人尊敬的德国网站Transfermarkt.com，独立球员的总市值约为1700万欧元。在我看来，这太高了。我估计这个数字在1500万左右。客队球员的总市值约为3300万，这个数字太低了。拉努斯最近状态很好，最近八场比赛只输了一场!