In my opinion Chelsea have really good chances to make at least one point in today’s match up.

Obviously, Newcastle played at least one class above Chelsea in current campaign, but it’s last match of the season and I see solid reasons to play on double chance on home side.

Newcastle achieved their main goal – they get qualification to Champions League. All team and supporters are extremely happy and everyone already looking for new season. Their motivation in this game is under big question mark, especially after big celebration at home 6 days ago after the match against Leicester.

Chelsea plays horrible season, no doubt about that. Club legend Frank Lampard back to the team as caretaker boss and it’s last game for him on the Chelsea bench. He is legend in club, he is very important part of club history and for sure he will give absolutely everything to avoid loss in this game and give some small happiness for the home crowd.

Chelsea results looks poor, but if You look deeper there were some flashes of quality, especially in attack. They had at least 1.17 expected goals scored in 5 of last 6 matches (only 0.87 against Arsenal). I believe they are able to score today. Newcastle conceded 18 goals in 18 away league matches, but according to the excepted goals scored model they should concede 23. In addition to that today they are without first goalkeeper Nick Pope. Newcastle conceded at least one goal in last 9 away matches in all competitions. In last game on the road they conceded 2 goals against Leeds from relegation zone.

I believe Chelsea is able to not concede more than one goal today. In last away matches Newcastle scored 2 goals against Leeds, but both from penalty. Today they will play without important striker Joelinton (6 goals) and second-best assistant Wilock. Chelsea is able to play solid at the back: they conceded only one goal 7 days ago against City on away. In April they kept clean sheet at home against Liverpool (only 0.25 expected goals conceded!).

BIG STAT at the end: Newcastle failed to win in 26 of last 27 matches against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge (11 years ago)!

I see at least one goal for Chelsea, but no more than one goal for Newcastle.

1:1 is my prediction

在我看来，切尔西有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少得一分。

显然，纽卡斯尔在目前的比赛中至少比切尔西高出一个级别，但这是本赛季的最后一场比赛，我认为有充分的理由在主场打双机会。

纽卡斯尔实现了他们的主要目标——他们获得了欧冠资格。所有的球队和支持者都非常高兴，每个人都在期待新赛季。他们在这场比赛中的动力是一个很大的问号，特别是在6天前主场对阵莱斯特城的比赛后的盛大庆祝之后。

毫无疑问，切尔西这个赛季踢得很糟糕。俱乐部传奇人物弗兰克·兰帕德以临时主教练的身份回归球队，这也是他在切尔西替补席上的最后一场比赛。他是俱乐部的传奇，他是俱乐部历史上非常重要的一部分，他肯定会尽一切努力避免在这场比赛中失利，并为主场球迷带来一些小小的快乐。

切尔西的结果看起来很糟糕，但如果你深入观察，你会发现他们有一些闪光点，尤其是在进攻端。在过去的6场比赛中，他们有5场比赛的预期进球数至少为1.17个(对阵阿森纳时仅为0.87个)。我相信他们今天能得分。纽卡斯尔在18场客场联赛中丢了18球，但根据例外进球数模型，他们应该丢23球。除此之外，今天他们还没有首发门将尼克·波普。纽卡斯尔在各项赛事的近9场客场比赛中至少丢1球。在上一场客场比赛中，他们在降级区对利兹联队丢了两个球。

我相信切尔西今天不会再丢一个球了。在上一场客场比赛中，纽卡斯尔对利兹联队进了2球，但都是点球。今天他们将失去重要的前锋乔林顿(6球)和第二好的助手威洛克。切尔西在后防线上踢得很稳固:他们在7天前客场对阵曼城时只丢了一个球。四月，他们在主场对阵利物浦的比赛中保持零失球(预期只丢了0.25个球!)

最后的大数据:纽卡斯尔在斯坦福桥对阵切尔西的27场比赛中有26场没有获胜(11年前)!

我认为切尔西至少有一个进球，但纽卡斯尔不会超过一个。

我的预测是1:1