Eibar's results are very bad for a long time and they are in real relegation danger, but looking at the expected goal data there is more to know. They have created more than 1 goal of xG in all of their matches recently except vs strong Bilbao side away. Even worth 2 several times, so it has mostly been their defense that lets them down. And variance, bad luck.在很长一段时间里，埃瓦尔的成绩都很糟糕，他们真的处于降级的危险之中，但是看看预期的进球数据，我们会知道更多。在最近的所有比赛中，除了对阵强大的毕尔巴鄂队外，他们的预期进球数据都超过一个进球，所以主要是他们的防守太差，同时运气不佳。

In the first meeting Real scored twice early, and finished with a very late goal to win 1-3 away, but in that game they had Toni Kroos and Sergio Ramos available, which is not the case today. The importance of Kroos can not be highlighted enough, Benzema steals the headlines with his goals but without Modric and Kroos midfield Real would be even further away from top position in the league. Hazard, Carvajal and Valverde miss out too.在第一场比赛中，皇马早早就打入两球，并在最后时刻攻入一球以3-1战胜对手，但在那场比赛中，他们有托尼·克罗斯和塞尔吉奥·拉莫斯，但今天却不是这样。克罗斯的重要性再怎么强调也不够，本泽马以他的进球占据了各大媒体的头条，但是如果中场没有莫德里奇和克罗斯，皇马将离联赛第一的位置越来越远。阿扎尔、卡瓦哈尔和瓦尔韦德缺席。

Result-wise Real have been good recently,

and they do cover this handicap at home roughly one out of two. So is Eibar an average side in an average situation?

The international break usually does a lot of good for these teams who are a) fully motivated and b) free from international top class players who are with their national team duty. Eibar had Gil their top player Gil with Spain, but if any impact it is only positive as he had his debut minutes in the squad. In comparison see how fresh were Huesca last night!

As of Real Madrid most of the team was away, there was not much rest, not much team training either.

There is no question of who is the favourite, but I am expecting a very strong Eibar performance tonight even if they miss Exposito and Bigas from their optimal lineup. Real have lost their key players at worst possible moment as they have Barcelona and Liverpool awaiting in upcoming weeks.

1-1

国际比赛的间隙通常对埃瓦尔这些球队有很大的好处，因为它们有a)准备充分战意强，b)国脚少，国家队任务不多。埃瓦尔的吉尔随西班牙国家队参赛，但如果有什么影响的话，那也只是积极的，因为他刚刚在国家队完成处子秀。参考下今晨韦斯卡的表现。

在皇马，大部分队员都有国家队任务，球员没有多少休息，也没有多少团队和练。

毫无疑问，皇马更加受欢迎，但我希望埃瓦尔今晚有非常强劲的表现，即使埃斯珀斯托和比加斯。皇马在最糟糕的时刻失去了他们的关键球员，巴塞罗那和利物浦将在接下来的几周等待他们。

看好埃瓦尔不会大败，比分参考1-1