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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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An interesting game in Finland!

2023-05-26

比赛分析

芬超

已完赛

星期五2023-05-26 23:00

解读理由

VPS VS Ilves


VPS welcome visitors from the city of Tampere for this Finnish Veikkausliiga clash late Friday evening Beijing time. This is the first tier of my home country's football but the level is pretty low by global standards. It has, however, improved during the last 8-12 or so years! As a Finnish professional football bettor I know Veikkausliiga and all the teams and players extremely well! The bookmakers, on the other hand, pretty often seem to make surprisingly many mistakes with their odds in Veikkausliiga and in Ykkönen, the second-tier. The bookies put more resources on the bigger leagues that attactact more attention and money from bettors. I watch every single Veikkausliiga game – many games live at the stadium - like today in Espoo (Honka vs KTP). I have previewed this game as well. Ilves have grabbed eight points and currently occupy the 7th place in the standings in this league with a total of 12 clubs.. They are, however, in 6th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. They have not quite met my expectations so far but have room for improvement - in all areas of the game. I trust their coach pretty much in terms of tactics.. Ilves have a total of eight points to their account but their number of expected points (xPTS) is bigger – 10.12 to be precise. They have netted the ball six times in this league so far and it is true that their offense does sometimes lack some speed and creativity. Even so, their number of expected goals (xG) is 8.11. Their defense has been solid and they have allowed just seven goals so far. This is less than the best team in this league, HJK. The reigning champions from Helsinki have allowed eight goals. Ilves' defense has a fine structure but the defenders could be a little more brave passing the ball fast to build up attacks..

In their most recent match Ilves were strong and could easily have beaten HJK at home. Ilves' Ala-Myllymäki even missed a penalty kick in the 48th minute when Ilves were leading 1-0.. The match was overall a balanced one and teams had 50% ball possession and two shots on goal despite the fact that HJK were big favorites in this game – priced around 1.75 to win in the betting market. Ilves recorded more goal attempts (8-6) and dangerous attacks – 61-46. Before this they crushed a small team, NoPS, in a Finnish cup game 5-1 away from home. VPS cannot match Ilves in any area of the game. The biggest bookies see them as slim favorites here – offering them odds of around 2.40 to take all three points but I strongly disagree. Ilves should be narrow favorites based on my in-depth analysis! VPS are in the 9th place in the standings and have taken just one win in Veikkausliiga. This happened early May at home over IFK Mariehamn, a lowly team but VPS did not impress me in this game. Their offense has been very poor and they have scored just five times in Veikkausliiga. Only Lahti have scored less goals – three. Even at home the VPS offense has lacked speed, structure and creativity and they have scored just twice at Lemonsoft Stadion in Veikkausliiga. The fans have been disappointed – understandably so!



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

VS伊尔维斯


北京时间周五晚,VPS欢迎来自坦佩雷市的游客观看芬兰橄榄球队的比赛。这是我祖国足球的第一梯队,但以全球标准来看,这一水平相当低。然而,在过去8-12年左右的时间里,它得到了改善!作为一名芬兰职业足球投注者,我非常了解维克考斯利加以及所有的球队和球员!另一方面,博彩公司似乎经常在维克考斯利加和Ykkönen(二级联赛)的赔率上犯令人惊讶的错误。博彩公司把更多的资源放在更大的联赛上,以吸引更多的关注和投注者的钱。我看了每一场维卡联赛的比赛——很多比赛都是现场直播的——比如今天在埃斯波的比赛(宏卡对KTP)。我也预览了这款游戏。伊尔维斯已经拿到了8分,目前在这个联赛中排名第七,总共有12家俱乐部。然而,他们在我的力量排名中排名第六,这反映了球队的纯粹等级。到目前为止,他们还没有完全达到我的期望,但在比赛的各个方面都有改进的空间。在战术方面,我非常信任他们的教练。我的账户上总共有8分,但他们的期望分数(xPTS)更大——准确地说是10.12。到目前为止,他们在联赛中已经六次进球,他们的进攻确实有时缺乏速度和创造力。即便如此,他们的预期进球数(xG)为8.11。他们的防守很稳固,到目前为止只丢了7个球。这支球队连联盟最好的球队都不如。来自赫尔辛基的卫冕冠军丢了8个球。伊尔维斯的防守结构很好,但后卫可以更勇敢一点,快速传球来建立进攻。

在他们最近的一场比赛中,伊尔维斯很强大,可以在主场轻松击败hkk。伊尔维斯的Ala-Myllymäki甚至在伊尔维斯1-0领先的第48分钟错失了一个点球。这场比赛总体上是一场平衡的比赛,各队都有50%的控球权和两次射门,尽管事实上hkk是这场比赛的大热门——在博彩市场上的胜率约为1.75。伊尔维斯的进球次数(8胜6负)和危险进攻(61胜46负)更多。在此之前,他们在芬兰杯客场5-1击败了一支小球队NoPS。VPS在比赛的任何领域都无法与伊尔维斯匹敌。最大的博彩公司认为他们在这里的胜算很小-提供2.40左右的赔率来获得所有三分,但我强烈反对。根据我的深入分析,我的胜算应该不大!VPS在积分榜上排名第9,在维库斯利加只赢了一场。这发生在五月初主场对阵IFK Mariehamn的比赛中,一支实力不强的球队,但VPS在这场比赛中并没有给我留下深刻的印象。他们的进攻一直很差,在维克考斯利加他们只进了5个球。只有拉赫蒂的进球数比他少,只有3个。即使在主场,VPS的进攻也缺乏速度、结构和创造力,他们在维克考斯利加的柠檬软球场只进了两球。球迷们很失望——这是可以理解的!

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