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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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Even more PROFIT! $$$ 南美杯 飓风队VS埃梅莱克

2023-05-25

比赛分析

南球杯

已完赛

星期五2023-05-26 08:00

解读理由

Huracan VS Club Sport Emelec


Huracan host Emelec for this Copa Sudamericana group stage round 4 battle at Estadio Tomás Adolfo Duco in Buenos Aires Friday morning Beijing time. The hosts are an Argentinian team – the visitors come from Ecuador. Both teams still have a good chance to qualify for the Play Offs. The group winner qualifies for the 1/8.finals and the team that finishes in second place qualifies for the 1/16-finals. Both teams have grabbed a total of four points so far. Huracan currently top the standings in the group. They have netted the ball five times in this group and have conceded three goals. In terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved 6.12 points. Their number of expected goals (xG) is 6.23. I expected them to put big pressure on the hosts' defense here right from the kick off! They have very enthusiastic fans who will surely boost a gigantic boost for Huracan here. They have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game and have a clearly over 60% chance to take all three points here! The biggest, usually somewhat smart bookmakers that have the biggest betting limits offer odds of around 1.70 for Huracan to win at least at the time of writing this analysis Thursday evening Beijing time. I expect the odds on the hosts to come down before the kickoffs as smart money is expected to pile up on Huracan.. Emelec have scored just two goals in this group so far and are quite limited offensively. Their offense lacks creativity, structure, passing accuracy and individual skill. Huracan's strikers are much more skilled, faster and creative than those of Emelec!

I would not be at all surprised if they were to fail to score here against a very strong opponent. Their defense is much worse than the number of goals allowed - three – would indicate. The teams locked horns on the 21th of April and Emelec took a 1-0 win. However, this win was an undeserved one and probably affects the odds too heavily here.. Huracan would have deserved all three points in this game. They had 54% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks (102-72) and dangerous attacks. Emelec are having a very disappointing season in the Ecuadorian Liga Pro. They are in the 14th place in this league with a total of 16 clubs. They have taken just nine points in 11 Liga Pro games. I want to highlight that this league is of massively worse level than the Argentinian Liga Pro. Huracan, too, have been disappointing this season but have potential for much better performances both offensively and defensively. I do trust their coach to work on the game and lead the team. Emelec have not won any of their most recent six games and have been lucky not to lose more than two of these six games. Huracan would have deserved a win in their latest game away from home against Sarmiento Junin but it was a 0-0 draw. Huracan had over 70% ball possession and generated much more in xG – 1.82-0.89. According to a very well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Emelec's players have a total market value of just around 20 million euros. In my opinion this is still a bit too high. I would set the number at around 16 million.. . The hosts' players have a total market value of approximately 32 million which is still too low! At least four players are under-valued..



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Huracan VS俱乐部体育


北京时间周五上午,在阿根廷首都布宜诺斯艾利斯的阿道夫·杜科球场,南美杯小组赛第四轮的比赛将由胡拉坎主场迎战埃米莱克。东道主是阿根廷队,客队来自厄瓜多尔。两支球队都有很好的机会进入附加赛。小组冠军有资格参加1/8的比赛。决赛,获得第二名的队伍有资格参加1/16决赛。到目前为止,两支球队一共拿到了4分。Huracan目前在小组中排名第一。他们在小组赛中5次进球,丢了3个球。按照期望积分(xPTS),他们应该得到6.12分。他们的预期目标数(xG)为6.23。我以为他们一开球就会给东道主的防守带来巨大的压力!他们有非常热情的球迷,他们肯定会为Huracan在这里带来巨大的推动。他们在比赛的各个方面都比东道主有优势,显然有超过60%的机会在这里拿到全部三分!至少在北京时间周四晚上写这篇分析时,最大的、通常有点聪明的博彩公司给出的赔率在1.70左右,他们的投注限额最大。我预计东道主的赔率会在开球前下降,因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在Huracan身上。到目前为止,埃米莱奇在小组中只进了两个球,而且在进攻端相当有限。他们的进攻缺乏创造力、结构、传球准确性和个人技术。Huracan的前锋比Emelec更有技术,更快,更有创造力!

如果他们在面对一个非常强大的对手时没有进球,我一点也不会感到惊讶。他们的防守比丢了3个球所显示的要差得多。两队在4月21日对峙,埃米莱克队以1-0获胜。然而,这场胜利是不值得的,可能会严重影响这里的赔率。Huracan本可以在这场比赛中得到三分。他们有54%的控球率,并且记录了更多的射门次数、射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数(102-72)和危险进攻。埃米莱克在厄瓜多尔职业联赛中度过了一个非常令人失望的赛季。他们在这个联赛中排名第14位,共有16家俱乐部。他们在11场联赛中只拿到了9分。我想强调的是,这个联赛的水平比阿根廷职业联赛差得多。胡拉坎本赛季的表现也令人失望,但在进攻和防守方面都有潜力取得更好的表现。我相信他们的教练会在比赛中努力并带领球队。Emelec最近的六场比赛没有赢过一场,在这六场比赛中没有输掉超过两场已经很幸运了。在最近一场客场对阵萨米恩托·朱宁的比赛中,胡拉坎本应该赢得一场胜利,但结果却是0-0战平。在xG - 1.82-0.89的比赛中,Huracan的控球率超过70%,并且创造了更多的进球。根据一家非常知名和受人尊敬的德国网站Transfermarkt.com, Emelec球员的总市值仅为2000万欧元左右。在我看来,这个价格还是有点太高了。我估计这个数字在1600万左右。东道主球员的总市值约为3200万,这仍然太低了!至少有四名球员被低估了。

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