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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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9/9 WON in this league! $$$ 罗甲9连红 UTA阿拉德VS克拉约瓦1948

2023-05-19

比赛分析

罗甲

已完赛

星期六2023-05-20 01:00

解读理由

UTA Arad VS Universitatea Craiova


Uta Arad welcome Universitatea Craiova for this Romanian Liga 1 Relegation Group round 9 battle at Arena Francisc Neuman in Arad Saturday night Beijing time. Both teams have a lot to play for here and I expect an intense, physical battle – quite possibly with a lot of emotions. Several yellow cards - or even a red card would not be a surprise. If points are tied at the end of the competition, head-to-head matches will be the tie-breaker. Universitatea Craiova currently top the Relegation Group standings where a total of 10 clubs play. The points calculation system in the group is a little confusing so let's first take a look at the regular season standings to best understand the teams' level. 30 rounds were played and the visitors finished in 7th place with 40 points in their pocket. They had a score difference of 34:33. The visitors, on the other hand, struggled and ended up in the 15th place – only Mioveni grabbed less points than UTA Arad. Furthermore, UTA Arad's goal difference was poor. They netted the ball just 29 times and allowed 41 goals. The teams that finish in first and second place in the Relegation Group will still have a chance to qualify for the UEFA Conference League next season-. They have 35 points to their account but have been somewhat unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). They would have deserved 38.12 points. Petrolul, currently in 2nd place in the group, are just one point behind them, FC Voluntari (3rd) have 33 points in their pocket.

The visitors have scored 12 goals in this group but their number of expected goals (xG) is 14.11. Furthermore, they have conceded just six goals which is more or less the fair number in terms of expected goals allowed (xGA). Their offense is definitely stronger than that of the hosts. Indeed, UTA Arad have scored nine goals in eight games. They, too, would have deserved a little more in terms of xG though. In terms of defensive quality the visitors have a little bigger edge over the hosts than in terms of offensive capability. They have allowed eight goals but their number of xGA is 9.12. UTA Arad would have deserved 27 or 28 points in terms of xPTS. Yes, they should have the potential for much better performances than we have witnessed so far this season. Somehow they just do not play that well as a team and players surprisingly often look frustrated on the pitch – sometimes even aggressively yelling at each other. This is never a promising sign. I also do not trust their coach very much. The bookmakers seem to give their potential too much emphasis here.. I do not think it is realistic to expect UTA Arad to significantly improve during the few remaining games this season. They are in a fierce struggle to avoid relegation to Liga 2. The teams that finish in 15th and 16th place suffer this horrible fate. The hosts currently occupy the 13th place. The teams that finish 13th and 14th play will still have a chance to save themselves at the end of the season. Yes, they do have a chance to topple FC Botosani, currently in ”safety” in 12th place. This team have 28 points to their account.

The biggest, often pretty sharp bookmakers that accept the biggest bets from customers see the hosts as clear favorites here – offering them odds of around 2.05 to take all three points. It is true that the hosts are probably slightly more motivated than U. Craiova here - the will to avoid relegation is a huge thing in the last rounds of play in almost any football league. Even so, the bookies clearly give this factor way too much emphasis! UTA Arad do have loud and loyal fans but even with the home advantage I see them only as narrow favorites here. We must not forget that Universitatea Craiova have not lost any of their latest six matches – winning three of the six games! They were not quite at their best in their most recent match but still defeated FC Arges 2-1 at home. They fully deserved the three points after having 62% ball possession. They recorded many more goal attempts and shots on goal – 5-2. I want to highlight that FC Arges, currently in 9th place with massive stakes, were very motivated and fought hard in this game.. Before this, they faced Hermannstadt away from home as solid underdogs according to the betting market. The hosts put a lot of pressure on the visitors but U. Craiova proved that they can defend in an organized way even against a pretty strong opponent - much more dangerous than UTA Arad! I would have expected a little more from the visitors offensively though.. No goals were scored in this battle. UTA Arad, too, took a win in their most recent game. They defeated Mioveni, the rock-bottom team who have nothing to play for left, away from home 2-0. I want to remind my fans that Mioveni are a seriously bad team at the moment! Uta Arad were massive favorites in this match – priced around 1.30-1.35 to win by most bookies at the time of kickoff. Yes, the visitors did deserve to win but I was still not impressed by their performance. The hosts had their chances – recording a respectable 11 goal attempts. UTA Arad had only 52% ball possession and recorded just one more shot on target as well as attacks than Mioveni.




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UTA Arad VS克拉约瓦大学


北京时间周六晚,罗马尼亚甲级联赛降级组第9轮的比赛将在阿拉德的弗朗西斯科·纽曼竞技场举行,乌塔阿拉德将迎来克拉约瓦大学。两支球队在这里都有很多事情要做,我期待一场激烈的身体对抗——很可能会有很多情绪。几张黄牌,甚至一张红牌都不足为奇。如果在比赛结束时得分相等,则进行肉搏赛。克拉约瓦大学目前在保级组排名第一,共有10家俱乐部参加。小组的积分计算系统有点混乱,所以让我们先看看常规赛积分榜,以最好地了解球队的水平。经过30轮比赛,客队以第7名的成绩获得了40分。他们的比分差是34:33。另一方面,客队表现不佳,最终排名第15位,只有米奥韦尼比阿拉德拿到的分数少。此外,阿拉德的净胜球也很差。他们只射门29次,丢了41个球。在保级组中排名第一和第二的球队仍有机会晋级下赛季的欧洲联盟联赛。他们的账户上有35分,但在预期积分(xPTS)方面有些不走运。他们应该得到38.12分。目前在小组中排名第二的汽油队仅落后他们1分,而第三名的FC voltari则有33分。

客队在本组打进12球,但他们的预期进球数(xG)为14.11。此外,他们只丢了6个球,就预期失球(xGA)而言,这或多或少是公平的。他们的进攻绝对比东道主强。事实上,UTA阿拉德在8场比赛中打进了9球。他们也应该得到更多的xG。客队在防守质量上比主队在进攻能力上有更大的优势。他们丢了8个球,但是他们的射门数是9.12。阿拉德应该得到27或28分的积分。是的,他们应该有潜力取得比我们本赛季迄今为止所看到的更好的表现。不知怎的,他们作为一个团队并没有发挥得那么好,球员们在球场上经常看起来很沮丧——有时甚至互相怒吼。这绝不是一个有希望的迹象。我也不太相信他们的教练。博彩公司似乎过分强调了他们的潜力。我不认为期望阿拉德在本赛季剩下的几场比赛中有明显的进步是现实的。他们正在为避免降级而进行激烈的斗争。排在第15名和第16名的球队就会遭受这种可怕的命运。东道主目前排名第13位。排在第13位和第14位的球队在赛季结束时仍有机会拯救自己。是的,他们确实有机会推翻目前“安全”排在第12位的波托萨尼。这支球队有28分。

最大的、通常相当精明的博彩公司接受客户的最大赌注,他们认为东道主显然是最受欢迎的——给他们提供2.05左右的赔率来获得全部三分。的确,东道主可能比克拉约瓦更有动力——在几乎任何足球联赛的最后一轮比赛中,保级的意愿都是一件大事。即便如此,博彩公司显然给了这个因素太多的强调!阿拉德确实有响亮而忠诚的球迷,但即使有主场优势,我认为他们在这里也只是微弱的热门。我们不能忘记,克拉约瓦大学最近的六场比赛没有输过一场,六场比赛中赢了三场!在最近的一场比赛中,他们并没有达到最佳状态,但仍然在主场2-1击败了阿尔热斯。他们拥有62%的控球率,完全配得上这三分。他们有更多的进球尝试和射门,比分是5-2。我想强调的是,目前排名第9的FC Arges在这场比赛中非常有动力并且努力战斗。在此之前,根据博彩市场的数据,他们在客场面对的是赫曼施塔特队。东道主给客队施加了很大的压力,但克拉约娃证明了他们即使面对一个相当强大的对手——比阿拉德危险得多——也能有组织地防守!不过,我本希望客队在进攻端表现得更好一些。这场战斗没有进球。UTA Arad也在他们最近的比赛中取得了胜利。他们在客场以2比0击败了米奥韦尼,这支排名垫底的球队没有什么可踢的。我想提醒我的粉丝们,M

现在约韦尼是一支非常糟糕的球队!在这场比赛中,尤塔-阿拉德是最受欢迎的球队,开球时大多数博彩公司的定价在1.30-1.35左右。是的,客队确实应该获胜,但我仍然对他们的表现不以为然。东道主有机会,他们有11次进球。阿拉德的控球率只有52%,射门次数和进攻次数也只比米奥韦尼多一次。


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