I want to go little bit against the market. Almost everyone expects comfortable win for Molde, but in my opinion Aalesund is able to avoid big loss here. +1.5 AH on home side looks like option with solid value.

Aalesund is on last position on league table with 6 losses in 7 matches and still failed to score even one goal. On the paper that's horrible, but it's extremely undeserved. According to the expected goals scored model Aalesund should score 5.9 goals. In that department they are better than 5 other teams from league. In last two matches they had expected goals scored number above 1.00. Defensive formation had some stability in those matches - they conceded only one goal (1.20 expected goals conceded from two games).

I believe market overreact here because Molde scored 10 goals in last 3 rounds, but that wasn't deserved at all. According to the expected goals scored model they should score 4.59 goals. It's huge difference, no doubt about that.

On those circumstances I see some chances for Aalesund to avoid big loss here.

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

我想稍微逆市场而动。几乎所有人都希望莫尔德能轻松取胜，但在我看来，奥勒松有能力在这里避免大败。主队+1.5 AH看起来是一个很有价值的选择。

奥勒松在7场比赛中输了6场，排在联赛的最后一名，至今一球未进。从理论上讲，这很可怕，但这是非常不应该的。根据预期进球数模型，奥勒松应该进5.9球。在这方面，他们比其他5支联盟球队都要好。在过去的两场比赛中，他们期望的进球数在1.00以上。防守阵型在这些比赛中有一定的稳定性——他们只丢了一个球(两场比赛丢了1.20个球)。

我认为市场反应过度了，因为莫尔德在最后3轮打进10球，但这根本不应该。根据预期进球得分模型，他们应该进4.59球。这是一个巨大的差异，毫无疑问。

在这种情况下，我认为奥勒松有机会避免重大损失。

05月17日奥勒松 VS 莫尔德比赛分析直播