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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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Profit from Poland? 波兰甲 华沙军团VS乔治罗尼亚

2023-05-13

比赛分析

主队华沙军团LOGO

华沙军团

波兰甲

已完赛

星期六2023-05-13 02:30

解读理由

Legia Warszawa VS Jagiellonia Bialystok


Legia welcome Jagiellonia for this Polish Ekstraklasa round 32 battle at Stadion Wojska Polskiego early Saturday morning Beijing time. This league is of mediocre level by European standards. Football fans and us football bettors can expect a pretty good-level by this league's standards. However, I do not expect a very entertaining clash here. I expect Jagiellonia to be pretty defensive, perhaps even cautious here against a strong opponent – especially in the first half. Furthermore, I see this match as more low-scoring than the betting market does.. Indeed, my estimation on under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 48%. There is no doubt about the fact that the hosts are the better team here. They do have an edge over the visitors in all areas of the game. However, the main main point here is that the difference between the teams is smaller than the odds suggest. The biggest bookies see the host as big favorites here - offering the hosts odds of around 1.50-1.55 to take all three .. I cannot agree and based on my sophisticated, in depth analysis Legia have a 54% chance to win. However, the recommended bet is visitors with the +1.5 goals handicap. Neither team has anything left to play for really so squad rotation would not surprise anyone..

Legia have already secured a spot in the UEFA Conference League qualification for next season and will almost certainly finish in second place. Only three rounds of play remain and Pogon are already six points behind Legia. The hosts have grabbed 60 points so fart this season but their number of expected points (xPTS) is lower – 57.11 to be precise. They have netted the ball 49 times but their number of expected goals (xG) is lower – 46.02. In terms of offensive quality they are not much better than the visitors who have scored 46 goals. However, they, too. Have been lucky in terms of expected goals and would have deserved 45.22 goals. They have 40 points to their account but would have deserved 43.34 in terms of xPTS. They have been in fine form lately and have lost just one of their latest six games. Furthermore, they have lost just one of their most recent 16 games by a margin of more than one goal! The hosts have won just once during the 90 minutes of play in their latest six games and were disappointing in their most recent match losing to Pogon Szczecin 1-2 away from home. The hosts fully deserved the win!



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

华沙军团VS比亚韦斯托克


北京时间周六凌晨,莱吉亚将在波兰沃伊斯卡波斯基戈球场迎来与雅盖隆尼亚的第32轮激战。按照欧洲的标准,这个联赛处于中等水平。足球迷和我们的足球投注者可以期待一个相当不错的水平,以这个联盟的标准。然而,我不认为这是一场有趣的冲突。我希望贾盖洛尼亚在面对强大的对手时,会很有防守意识,甚至会很谨慎——尤其是在上半场。此外,我认为这场比赛比博彩市场的得分更低。事实上,我估计总进球数在2.5以下的球队占48%。毫无疑问,东道主在这里是更好的球队。他们在比赛的各个方面都比客队有优势。然而,这里最重要的一点是,两队之间的差距比赔率所显示的要小。最大的博彩公司认为东道主是最受欢迎的,他们为东道主提供了1.50-1.55的赔率。我不同意,根据我复杂而深入的分析莱吉亚有54%的机会获胜。然而,推荐的赌注是胜率+1.5的访客。两支球队都没有什么可打的了,所以阵容轮换不会让任何人感到惊讶。

莱吉亚已经获得了下赛季欧洲联盟联赛的资格,几乎肯定会以第二名的成绩结束比赛。只剩下三轮比赛了,Pogon已经落后莱吉亚6分了。东道主本赛季到目前为止已经拿到了60分,但他们的预期积分(xPTS)更低,准确地说是57.11分。他们有49次进球,但他们的期望进球数(xG)较低,为46.02个。就进攻质量而言,他们并不比打进46球的客队强多少。然而,他们也。从预期进球的角度来看,我很幸运,本应该打进45.22球。他们的账户上有40分,但如果以xPTS计算,他们应该得到43.34分。他们最近状态很好,最近六场比赛只输了一场。此外,在最近的16场比赛中,他们只输了一场超过一球的比赛!在最近的六场比赛中,东道主在90分钟的比赛中只赢了一场,在最近的一场比赛中,他们在客场1-2不敌什切青,令人失望。东道主完全配得上这场胜利!

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