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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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A WINNER from the USA? 公开赛杯 明尼苏达VS费城

2023-05-10

比赛分析

美公开赛

已完赛

星期三2023-05-10 08:30

解读理由

Minnesota United FC VS Philadelphia Union


Minnesota United welcome Philadelphia Union at Allianz Field for this US Open Cup 1/16-finals battle at Bank of America Stadium Wednesday morning Beijing time. The level of football in the MLS league where both teams play has improved significantly during the past 10 or so years. Most teams play entertaining, aggressive and offensive football – at least in the regular season games. Entertaining the crowd is considered important in the US – the same is true in the NBA and NHL. We can expect good entertainment here as well. This competition is not the main priority for either team so I expect neither team not to put too much emphasis on defending. The goal expectancy here is bigger than the betting market estimates. The probability of over 2.5 goals to be scored is 56%. There are many experienced, older ex-star players from the top European leagues playing and many young and talented younger players mainly from South America playing in this league. In this cup there are teams from lower level participating as well. Minnesota have not started the season too well. .They currently occupy the 8th place in the MLS Western Conference where a total of 15 teams play. They have grabbed 12 points so far this season. Their defense has been okay so far, indeed, they have allowed 11 goals in the MLS. Even so, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is much bigger – 14.02 goals. Furthermore, their midfielders should be more active in defending at critical moments. Their offense has lacked creativity and individual skill – especially against the stronger teams.. Their number of expected goals (xG) is just 8.12. Yes, the home advantage is there but I want to mention that Minnesota do not have the best fans. They have not won any games in the MLS at home so far and have scored just three goals in four games at their stadium. Philadelphia have been clearly better than the hosts so far this season. They have a total of 14 points to their account but their number of expected points (xPTS) is 15.24. .

The biggest, often pretty sharp bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers see the hosts as the favorites but based on my in-depth, strongly data-based analysis Philadelphia Union should be the favorites here! Furthermore, ther squad has a clearly bigger market value according to a famous and well-respected German website, Transfermarkt.com. Indeed, their players have a total market value of around 49 million euros. Minnesota's squad, on the other hand, is valued at just 34 million. The visitors definitely have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game. They have also been in better form results-wise and have looked better on the pitch than the hosts lately.. Indeed, Minnesota have won just one of their most recent six matches! Philadelphia, on the other hand, have just suffered just one defeat in their latest six games. In their most recent match they were not at their best against New York Red Bulls but still took a 1-0 win on the road. They were forced to defend quite a lot as the solid favorites according to the betting bookies put big pressure on the visitors' defense. However, they did defend in an organized way and The Red Bulls only managed three shots on goal. Before this they lost to Los Angeles FC 0-3 away from home in a CONCAf 2nd leg battle but the match was, in reality, mauch more balanced than the final score suggests. The hosts did deserve to win but Philadelphia did have their chances too despite not being quite at their best. Minnesota lost their latest game against Vancouver Whitecaps 2-3 mainly due to bad defending. The hosts did deserve the win after recording many more goal attempts (11-7) as well as shots on and off goal. They also generated more in xG. They would have to improve to get lucky to win today!



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

明尼苏达联队VS费城联盟队

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明尼苏达联队将于北京时间周三上午在安联球场迎来费城联盟队在美国银行体育场举行的美国公开赛1/16决赛的战斗。两支球队都参加的美国职业足球大联盟的足球水平在过去10年左右的时间里有了显著的提高。大多数球队踢的是娱乐性强、进攻性强的足球——至少在常规赛中是这样。娱乐观众在美国被认为是很重要的,在NBA和NHL也是如此。我们也可以期待在这里有好的娱乐活动。这场比赛对两队来说都不是首要任务,所以我希望两队都不要太强调防守。这里的进球预期比博彩市场估计的要大。进球超过2.5个的概率是56%。在这个联赛中,有许多来自欧洲顶级联赛的经验丰富的老球员,也有许多年轻而有才华的年轻球员,主要来自南美。在本届杯赛中,也有来自较低水平的球队参加。明尼苏达队本赛季开局不太好,他们目前在美国职业足球大联盟西部排名第8,共有15支球队参加比赛。本赛季到目前为止,他们已经拿到了12分。到目前为止,他们的防守还不错,事实上,他们在大联盟中丢了11个球。即便如此,他们的预期进球数(xGA)要大得多——14.02个。此外,他们的中场应该在关键时刻更加积极地防守。他们的进攻缺乏创造力和个人技巧——尤其是面对强队时。他们的预期进球数(xG)仅为8.12。是的,主场优势是存在的,但我想说的是,明尼苏达没有最好的球迷。到目前为止,他们还没有在美国大联盟的主场赢过一场比赛,在主场的4场比赛中只进了3球。本赛季到目前为止,费城的表现明显好于东道主。它们的总数是1他们的账户上有4分,但他们的预期点数(xPTS)是15.24.

最大的,通常是相当敏锐的赌徒,他们接受客户的最大赌注,认为东道主是最受欢迎的,但根据我深入的,强有力的基于数据的分析,费城联盟应该是最受欢迎的!此外,根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据,他们的球队显然拥有更大的市场价值。事实上,他们的球员总市值约为4900万欧元。另一方面,明尼苏达的球队价值仅为3400万美元。客队在比赛的各个方面都比主队有优势。他们在结果方面也有更好的状态,最近在球场上看起来比东道主更好。事实上,明尼苏达在最近的六场比赛中只赢了一场!另一方面,费城在最近的六场比赛中只输了一场。在他们最近的一场比赛中,他们在对阵纽约红牛的比赛中表现不佳,但仍然以1-0的比分在客场取胜。根据博彩公司的说法,他们被迫防守相当多的热门球队,给客队的防守施加了很大的压力。然而,他们的防守确实很有组织,红牛队只有三次射门。在此之前,他们在CONCAf第二回合客场0-3负于洛杉矶FC,但实际上,这场比赛比最终比分所显示的要平衡得多。东道主确实应该获胜,但费城也有机会,尽管他们没有达到最佳状态。明尼苏达队在最近一场对温哥华白头队的比赛中以2比3输掉了比赛,主要原因是防守不力。主队在进球次数(11-7)和射门次数(球门内和球门外)更多的情况下赢得了这场胜利。他们在xG中也产生了更多。他们必须改进才能幸运地赢得今天的比赛!< / p >。

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